MJO Simulation Diagnostics

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) interacts with and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, midlatitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multimodel comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, because of the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation to more sophisticated space–time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO.

Overview and response to reviewers of The Singing Neanderthals

Why are humans musical? Why do people in all cultures sing or play instruments? Why do we appear to have specialized neurological apparatus for hearing and interpreting music as distinct from other sounds? And how does our musicality relate to language and to our evolutionary history? Anthropologists and archaeologists have paid little attention to the origin of music and musicality — far less than for either language or ‘art’. While art has been seen as an index of cognitive complexity and language as an essential tool of communication, music has suffered from our perception that it is an epiphenomenal ‘leisure activity’, and archaeologically inaccessible to boot. Nothing could be further from the truth, according to Steven Mithen; music is integral to human social life, he argues, and we can investigate its ancestry with the same rich range of analyses — neurological, physiological, ethnographic, linguistic, ethological and even archaeological — which have been deployed to study language. In The Singing Neanderthals Steven Mithen poses these questions and proposes a bold hypothesis to answer them. Mithen argues that musicality is a fundamental part of being human, that this capacity is of great antiquity, and that a holistic protolanguage of musical emotive expression predates language and was an essential precursor to it. This is an argument with implications which extend far beyond the mere origins of music itself into the very motives of human origins. Any argument of such range is bound to attract discussion and critique; we here present commentaries by archaeologists Clive Gamble and Iain Morley and linguists Alison Wray and Maggie Tallerman, along with Mithen's response to them. Whether right or wrong, Mithen has raised fascinating and important issues. And it adds a great deal of charm to the time-honoured, perhaps shopworn image of the Neanderthals shambling ineffectively through the pages of Pleistocene prehistory to imagine them humming, crooning or belting out a cappella harmonies as they went.

A decade of decentralisation? Assessing the role of the government offices for the English regions

The Government Offices for the English regions were established in 1994 to coordinate the regional activities of three central government departments. A decade on, regional government in England is greatly expanded, and two other institutions of regional governance, the Regional Development Agencies and the Regional Assemblies, have also been created. In 2002 the Labour government proposed that this 'triad' of regional governance should be further reformed and strengthened, in some places being brought to democratic account. In this paper, we argue that academic research on the English regions has generally focused on the Regional Development Agencies and to a lesser extent the Regional Assemblies, to the exclusion of the Government Offices. This focus has led some to overstate the extent to which regional government represents the real decentralisation of power. Focusing on the role of the Government Offices, we argue that central government retains a great deal of power over the 'triad' institutions, which in their current form may be unable to challenge the structure of power in the English state.

Stratospheric temperature and radiative forcing response to 11-year solar cycle changes in irradiance and ozone

The 11-yr solar cycle temperature response to spectrally resolved solar irradiance changes and associated ozone changes is calculated using a fixed dynamical heating (FDH) model. Imposed ozone changes are from satellite observations, in contrast to some earlier studies. A maximum of 1.6 K is found in the equatorial upper stratosphere and a secondary maximum of 0.4 K in the equatorial lower stratosphere, forming a double peak in the vertical. The upper maximum is primarily due to the irradiance changes while the lower maximum is due to the imposed ozone changes. The results compare well with analyses using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and NCEP/NCAR datasets. The equatorial lower stratospheric structure is reproduced even though, by definition, the FDH calculations exclude dynamically driven temperature changes, suggesting an important role for an indirect dynamical effect through ozone redistribution. The results also suggest that differences between the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU)/Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and ERA-40 estimates of the solar cycle signal can be explained by the poor vertical resolution of the SSU/MSU measurements. The adjusted radiative forcing of climate change is also investigated. The forcing due to irradiance changes was 0.14 W m−2, which is only 78% of the value obtained by employing the standard method of simple scaling of the total solar irradiance (TSI) change. The difference arises because much of the change in TSI is at wavelengths where ozone absorbs strongly. The forcing due to the ozone change was only 0.004 W m−2 owing to strong compensation between negative shortwave and positive longwave forcings.

Coupled simulations of the Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation using a fine-resolution mixed-layer ocean model

The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Indian summer monsoon is dominated by a 30–50 day oscillation between “active” and “break” events of enhanced and reduced rainfall over the subcontinent, respectively. These organized convective events form in the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate north to India. Atmosphere–ocean coupled processes are thought to play a key role the intensity and propagation of these events. A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer-oceanmodel is assembled: HadKPP. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) and the K Profile Parameterization (KPP) mixed-layer ocean model. Following studies that upper-ocean vertical resolution and sub-diurnal coupling frequencies improve the simulation of ISV in SSTs, KPP is run at 1 m vertical resolution near the surface; the atmosphere and ocean are coupled every three hours. HadKPP accurately simulates the 30–50 day ISV in rainfall and SSTs over India and the Bay of Bengal, respectively, but suffers from low ISV on the equator. This is due to the HadAM3 convection scheme producing limited ISV in surface fluxes. HadKPP demonstrates little of the observed northward propagation of intraseasonal events, producing instead a standing oscillation. The lack of equatorial ISV in convection in HadAM3 constrains the ability of KPP to produce equatorial SST anomalies, which further weakens the ISV of convection. It is concluded that while atmosphere–ocean interactions are undoubtedly essential to an accurate simulation of ISV, they are not a panacea for model deficiencies. In regions where the atmospheric forcing is adequate, such as the Bay of Bengal, KPP produces SST anomalies that are comparable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) SST analyses in both their magnitude and their timing with respect to rainfall anomalies over India. HadKPP also displays a much-improved phase relationship between rainfall and SSTs over a HadAM3 ensemble forced by observed SSTs, when both are compared to observations. Coupling to mixed-layer models such as KPP has the potential to improve operational predictions of ISV, particularly when the persistence time of SST anomalies is shorter than the forecast lead time.

Selenium supplementation of lactating dairy cows: effects on milk production and total selenium content and speciation in blood, milk and cheese

Forty-multiparous Holstein cows were used in a 16-wk continuous design study to determine the effects of either selenium (Se) source, selenized yeast (SY) (derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae CNCM I-3060 Sel-Plex®) or sodium selenite (SS), or inclusion rate of SY on Se concentration and speciation in blood, milk and cheese. Cows received ad libitum a TMR with 1:1 forage:concentrate ratio on a dry matter (DM) basis. There were four diets (T1-T4) which differed only in either source or dose of Se additive. Estimated total dietary Se for T1 (no supplement), T2 (SS), T3 (SY) and T4 (SY) was 0.16, 0.30, 0.30 and 0.45 mg/kg DM, respectively. Blood and milk samples were taken at 28 day intervals and at each time point there were positive linear effects of SY on Se concentration in blood and milk. At day 112 blood and milk Se values for T1-T4 were 177, 208, 248, 279 ± 6.6 and 24, 38, 57, 72 ± 3.7 ng/g fresh material, respectively and indicate improved uptake and incorporation of Se from SY. While selenocysteine (SeCys) was the main selenised amino acid in blood its concentration was not markedly affected by treatment, but the proportion of total Se as selenomethionine (SeMet) increased with increasing inclusion rate of SY. In milk, there were no marked treatment effects on SeCys content, but Se source had a marked effect on the proportion of total Se as SeMet. At day 112 replacing SS (T2) with SY (T3) increased the SeMet concentration of milk from 36 to 111 ng Se/g and its concentration increased further to 157 ng Se/g as the inclusion rate of SY increased further (T4) to provide 0.45 mg Se/kg TMR. Neither Se source nor inclusion rate effected the keeping quality of milk. At day 112, milk from T1, T2, and T3 was made into a hard cheese and Se source had a marked effect on total Se and the proportion of total Se comprised as either SeMet or SeCys. Replacing SS (T2) with SY (T3) increased total Se, SeMet and SeCys content from 180 to 340 ng Se/g, 57 to 153 ng Se/g and 52 to 92 ng Se/g, respectively. Key words: dairy cow, milk and cheese, selenomethionine, selenocysteine, milk keeping quality