A revision of the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous dragonfly family Tarsophlebiidae, with a discussion on the phylogenetic positions of the Tarsophlebiidae and Sieblosiidae (Insecta, Odonatoptera, Panodonata)

The Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous dragonfly family Tarsophlebiidae is revised. The type species of the type genus Tarsophlebia Hagen, 1866, T eximia (Hagen, 1862) from the Upper Jurassic Solnhofen Limestones, is redescribed, including important new information on its head, legs, wings, anal appendages and male secondary genital apparatus. The type specimen of Tarsophlebiopsis mayi Tillyard, 1923 is regarded as an aberrant or unusually preserved Tarsophlebia eximia. One new species of Tarsophlebia and three new species of Turanophlebia are described, i.e. Tarsophlebia minor n. sp., Turanophlebia anglicana n. sp., T mongolica n. sp., and T. vitimensis n. sp. A new combination is proposed for Turanophlebia neckini (Martynov, 1927) n. comb. The phylogenetic relationships of the Mesozoic Tarsophlebiidae are discussed on the basis of new body and wing venation characters. The present analysis supports a rather derived position for the Tarsophlebiidae, as sister group of the the Epiproctophora rather than of (Zygoptera + Epiproctophora). Also, through the present discussion, the Oligo-Miocene family Sieblosiidae seems to be more closely related to the Epiproctophora than to the Zygoptera. But the present study and previous analyses suffer of the lack of informations concerning the more inclusive groups of Odonatoptera, viz. Protozygoptera, Triadophlebiomorpha, Protanisoptera, etc. The significance of the tarsophlebiid secondary male genital apparatus for the reconstruction of the evolution of odonate copulation is discussed.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics

A multimodel assessment of the performance of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) in the extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) is conducted for the first time. Process-oriented diagnostics are used to validate dynamical and transport characteristics of 18 CCMs using meteorological analyses and aircraft and satellite observations. The main dynamical and chemical climatological characteristics of the extratropical UTLS are generally well represented by the models, despite the limited horizontal and vertical resolution. The seasonal cycle of lowermost stratospheric mass is realistic, however with a wide spread in its mean value. A tropopause inversion layer is present in most models, although the maximum in static stability is located too high above the tropopause and is somewhat too weak, as expected from limited model resolution. Similar comments apply to the extratropical tropopause transition layer. The seasonality in lower stratospheric chemical tracers is consistent with the seasonality in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Both vertical and meridional tracer gradients are of similar strength to those found in observations. Models that perform less well tend to use a semi-Lagrangian transport scheme and/or have a very low resolution. Two models, and the multimodel mean, score consistently well on all diagnostics, while seven other models score well on all diagnostics except the seasonal cycle of water vapor. Only four of the models are consistently below average. The lack of tropospheric chemistry in most models limits their evaluation in the upper troposphere. Finally, the UTLS is relatively sparsely sampled by observations, limiting our ability to quantitatively evaluate many aspects of model performance.

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: tropics and global trends

The performance of 18 coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative diagnostics. Trends in tropopause quantities in the tropics and the extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are analyzed. A quantitative grading methodology for evaluating CCMs is extended to include variability and used to develop four different grades for tropical tropopause temperature and pressure, water vapor and ozone. Four of the 18 models and the multi-model mean meet quantitative and qualitative standards for reproducing key processes in the TTL. Several diagnostics are performed on a subset of the models analyzing the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), Lagrangian cold point and TTL transit time. Historical decreases in tropical tropopause pressure and decreases in water vapor are simulated, lending confidence to future projections. The models simulate continued decreases in tropopause pressure in the 21st century, along with ∼1K increases per century in cold point tropopause temperature and 0.5–1 ppmv per century increases in water vapor above the tropical tropopause. TTL water vapor increases below the cold point. In two models, these trends are associated with 35% increases in TTL cloud fraction. These changes indicate significant perturbations to TTL processes, specifically to deep convective heating and humidity transport. Ozone in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere has significant and hemispheric asymmetric trends. O3 is projected to increase by nearly 30% due to ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and due to enhancements in the stratospheric circulation. These UTLS ozone trends may have significant effects in the TTL and the troposphere.

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes

A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Our goal is to assess current observational capabilities and identify uncertainties in the aerosol direct forcing through comparisons of different methods with independent sources of uncertainties. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth (τ), direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical depth (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21%±7% is contributed by human activities, as estimated by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOD of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ~20% or ±0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global the ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2 Wm-2 (median ± standard error from various methods) over the global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0 Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and at the ocean surface are currently realized through a combination of satellite retrievals, surface measurements, and model simulations, and are less constrained. Over the oceans the surface DRE is estimated to be -8.8±0.7 Wm-2. Over land, an integration of satellite retrievals and model simulations derives a DRE of -4.9±0.7 Wm-2 and -11.8±1.9 Wm-2 at the TOA and surface, respectively. CTM simulations derive a wide range of DRE estimates that on average are smaller than the measurement-based DRE by about 30-40%, even after accounting for thin cirrus and cloud contamination. A number of issues remain. Current estimates of the aerosol direct effect over land are poorly constrained. Uncertainties of DRE estimates are also larger on regional scales than on a global scale and large discrepancies exist between different approaches. The characterization of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution remains challenging. The aerosol direct effect in the thermal infrared range and in cloudy conditions remains relatively unexplored and quite uncertain, because of a lack of global systematic aerosol vertical profile measurements. A coordinated research strategy needs to be developed for integration and assimilation of satellite measurements into models to constrain model simulations. Enhanced measurement capabilities in the next few years and high-level scientific cooperation will further advance our knowledge.

The application of ichnofabrics towards bridging the dichotomy between siliciclastic and carbonate shelf facies: examples from the Upper Jurassic Fulmar Formation (UK) and the Jubaila Formation (Saudi Arabia)

An initial study of the ichnofabrics of the Upper Jurassic (Kimmeridgian) Jubaila Formation of Saudi Arabia shows that the ichnofabrics are closely matched to the relatively well-described ichnofabrics of the contemporary Fulmar Formation of the UK Continental Shelf (North Sea), in respect of the lower shoreface/offshore transition facies to offshore facies. The ichnology and ichnofabrics of the Lower Jubaila Formation show that deposition took place on an open-marine platform on the Arabian craton subject to periodic storm activity, but under a persisting equilibrium between sediment accumulation and subsidence. This is consistent with the moderately deep-marine foraminiferal assemblages and the presence of calcareous nannofossils. Cyclicity is absent, though storm beds may be grouped, in contrast with the genetic sequences present in the rift and halokinetic scenario of the North Sea. In contrast with the siliciclastic setting hardgrotinds (with Gastrochaenolites), more common firmground omission surfaces, and micritic mudstones with Chondrites and Zoophycos are notable features of the carbonate facies. In siliciclastic successions (parasequences) the latter ichnotaxa are generally regarded as having been deposited in rather deeper water, but in the carbonate Jubaila Formation are interpreted as being associated with local areas of lower turbulence. Likewise, the hardgrounds and firmgrounds, which have not been traced laterally, are tentatively regarded to be of local significance.

The role of lateral ocean physics in the upper ocean thermal balance of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

The sensitivity of the upper ocean thermal balance of an ocean-atmosphere coupled GCM to lateral ocean physics is assessed. Three 40-year simulations are performed using horizontal mixing, isopycnal mixing, and isopycnal mixing plus eddy induced advection. The thermal adjustment of the coupled system is quite different between the simulations, confirming the major role of ocean mixing on the heat balance of climate. The initial adjustment phase of the upper ocean (SST) is used to diagnose the physical mechanisms involved in each parametrisation. When the lateral ocean physics is modified, significant changes of SST are seen, mainly in the southern ocean. A heat budget of the annual mixed layer (defined as the “bowl”) shows that these changes are due to a modified heat transfer between the bowl and the ocean interior. This modified heat intake of the ocean interior is directly due to the modified lateral ocean physics. In isopycnal diffusion, this heat exchange, especially marked at mid-latitudes, is both due to an increased effective surface of diffusion and to the sign of the isopycnal gradients of temperature at the base of the bowl. As this gradient is proportional to the isopycnal gradient of salinity, this confirms the strong role of salinity in the thermal balance of the coupled system. The eddy induced advection also leads to increased exchanges between the bowl and the ocean interior. This is both due to the shape of the bowl and again to the existence of a salinity structure. The lateral ocean physics is shown to be a significant contributor to the exchanges between the diabatic and the adiabatic parts of the ocean.

The adrenal secretory serine protease AsP is a short secretory isoform of the transmembrane airway trypsin-like protease

To further elucidate the role of proteases capable of cleaving N-terminal proopiomelanocortin (N-POMC)-derived peptides, we have cloned two cDNAs encoding isoforms of the airway trypsin-like protease (AT) from mouse (MAT) and rat ( RAT), respectively. The open reading frames comprise 417 amino acids (aa) and 279 aa. The mouse AT gene was located at chromosome 5E1 and contains 10 exons. The longer isoform, which we designated MAT1 and RAT1, has a simple type II transmembrane protein structure, consisting of a short cytoplasmic domain, a transmembrane domain, a SEA (63-kDa sea urchin sperm protein, enteropeptidase, agrin) module, and a serine protease domain. The human homolog of MAT1 and RAT1 is the human AT ( HAT). The shorter isoform, designated MAT2 and RAT2, which contains an alternative N terminus, was formerly described in the rat as adrenal secretory serine protease (AsP) and has been shown to be involved in the processing of N-POMC-derived peptides. In contrast to the long isoform, neither MAT2 and RAT2 ( AsP) contain a transmembrane domain nor a SEA domain but an N-terminal signal peptide to direct the enzyme to the secretory pathway. The C terminus, covering the catalytic triad, is identical in both isoforms. Immunohistochemically, MAT/RAT was predominantly expressed in tissues of the upper gastrointestinal and the respiratory tract - but also in the adrenal gland. Moreover, isoform-specific RT-PCR and quantitative PCR analysis revealed a complex expression pattern of the two isoforms with differences between mice and rats. These findings indicate a multifunctional role of these proteases beyond adrenal proliferation.

Multivariate analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of GENTLE/S robot-mediated stroke therapy

Background: Robot-mediated therapies offer entirely new approaches to neurorehabilitation. In this paper we present the results obtained from trialling the GENTLE/S neurorehabilitation system assessed using the upper limb section of the Fugl-Meyer ( FM) outcome measure. Methods: We demonstrate the design of our clinical trial and its results analysed using a novel statistical approach based on a multivariate analytical model. This paper provides the rational for using multivariate models in robot-mediated clinical trials and draws conclusions from the clinical data gathered during the GENTLE/S study. Results: The FM outcome measures recorded during the baseline ( 8 sessions), robot-mediated therapy ( 9 sessions) and sling-suspension ( 9 sessions) was analysed using a multiple regression model. The results indicate positive but modest recovery trends favouring both interventions used in GENTLE/S clinical trial. The modest recovery shown occurred at a time late after stroke when changes are not clinically anticipated. Conclusion: This study has applied a new method for analysing clinical data obtained from rehabilitation robotics studies. While the data obtained during the clinical trial is of multivariate nature, having multipoint and progressive nature, the multiple regression model used showed great potential for drawing conclusions from this study. An important conclusion to draw from this paper is that this study has shown that the intervention and control phase both caused changes over a period of 9 sessions in comparison to the baseline. This might indicate that use of new challenging and motivational therapies can influence the outcome of therapies at a point when clinical changes are not expected. Further work is required to investigate the effects arising from early intervention, longer exposure and intensity of the therapies. Finally, more function-oriented robot-mediated therapies or sling-suspension therapies are needed to clarify the effects resulting from each intervention for stroke recovery.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Preliminary observations on the presence of sustained tendon strain and eccentric contractions of the wrist extensors during a common manual task: implications for lateral epicondylitis

Lateral epicondylitis (LE) is hypothesized to occur as a result of repetitive, strenuous and abnormal postural activities of the elbow and wrist. There is still a lack of understanding of how wrist and forearm positions contribute to this condition during common manual tasks. In this study the wrist kinematics and the wrist extensors’ musculotendon patterns were investigated during a manual task believed to elicit LE symptoms in susceptible subjects. A 42-year-old right-handed male, with no history of LE, performed a repetitive movement involving pushing and turning a spring-loaded mechanism. Motion capture data were acquired for the upper limb and an inverse kinematic and dynamic analysis was subsequently carried out. Results illustrated the presence of eccentric contractions sustained by the extensor carpi radialis longus (ECRL), together with an almost constant level of tendon strain of both extensor carpi radialis brevis (ECRB) and extensor digitorum communis lateral (EDCL) branch. It is believed that these factors may partly contribute to the onset of LE as they are both responsible for the creation of microtears at the tendons’ origins. The methodology of this study can be used to explore muscle actions during movements that might cause or exacerbate LE.

Assessment of a 1 hour gridded precipitation dataset to drive a hydrological model: a case study of the summer 2007 floods in the Upper Severn, UK

In this study a gridded hourly 1-km precipitation dataset for a meso-scale catchment (4,062 km2) of the Upper Severn River, UK was constructed using rainfall radar data to disaggregate a daily precipitation (rain gauge) dataset. The dataset was compared to an hourly precipitation dataset created entirely from rainfall radar data. Results found that when assessed against gauge readings and as input to the Lisflood-RR hydrological model, the rain gauge/radar disaggregated dataset performed the best suggesting that this simple method of combining rainfall radar data with rain gauge readings can provide temporally detailed precipitation datasets for calibrating hydrological models.

Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.