Long run relationships between City office rents and the economy in the UK: creating a database for research

This paper sets out progress during the first eighteen months of doctoral research into the City of London office market. The overall aim of the research is to explore relationships between office rents and the economy in the UK over the last 150 years. To do this, a database of lettings has been created from which a long run index of City office rents can be constructed. With this index, it should then be possible to analyse trends in rents and relationships with their long run determinants. The focus of this paper is on the creation of the rent database. First, it considers the existing secondary sources of long run rental data for the UK. This highlights a lack of information for years prior to 1970 and the need for primary data collection if earlier periods are to be studied. The paper then discusses the selection of the City of London and of the time period chosen for research. After this, it describes how a dataset covering the period 1860-1960 has been assembled using the records of property companies active in the City office market. It is hoped that, if successful, this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the long run characteristics of commercial real estate. In particular, it should add a price dimension (rents) to the existing long run information on stock/supply and investment. Hence, it should enable a more complete picture of the development and performance of commercial real estate through time to be gained.

Season of birth and sheep husbandry in late Roman and Medieval coastal Flanders: a pilot study using tooth enamel d18O analysis

From the early Roman period, there is archaeological evidence for the exploitation of the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium) for a range of activities, such as sheep herding on the then developing salt-marshes and salt-meadows for the production of wool. During the early Middle Ages, this culminated in the establishment of dedicated ‘sheep estates’. This phase of exploitation was followed by extensive drainage and land reclamation measures in the high Medieval period, transforming areas into grassland, suited for cattle breeding. As part of a larger project investigating the onset, intensification and final decline of sheep management in coastal Flanders in the historical period, this pilot study presents the results of sequential sampling and oxygen isotope analysis of a number of sheep teeth (M2, n = 8) from four late Roman and Medieval sites (dating from 4th to 15th century AD), in order to assess potential variations in season of birth between the different sites and through time. In comparison with published data from herds of known birth season, incremental enamel data from the Flemish sites are consistent with late winter/spring births, with the possibility of some instances of slightly earlier parturition. These findings suggest that manipulation of season of birth was not a feature of the sheep husbandry-based economies of early historic Flanders, further evidencing that wool production was the main purpose of contemporary sheep rearing in the region. Manipulation of season of birth is not likely to have afforded economic advantage in wool-centred economies, unlike in some milk- or meat-based regimes.

Subjective well-being and relative poverty in rural Bangladesh

This paper revisits the debate over the importance of absolute vs. relative income as a correlate of subjective well-being using data from Bangladesh, one of the poorest countries in the world with high levels of corruption and poor governance. We do so by combining household data with population census and village survey records. Our results show that conditional on own household income, respondents report higher satisfaction levels when they experience an increase in their income over the past years. More importantly, individuals who report their income to be lower than their neighbours in the village also report less satisfaction with life. At the same time, our evidence suggests that relative wealth effect is stronger for the rich. Similarly, in villages with higher inequality, individuals report less satisfaction with life. However, when compared to the effect of absolute income, these effects (i.e. relative income and local inequality) are modest. Amongst other factors, we study the influence of institutional quality. Institutional quality, measured in terms of confidence in police, matters for well-being: it enters with a positive and significant coefficient in the well-being function.

Rational expectations? Developer behaviour and development cycles in the central London office market

Purpose – Expectations of future market conditions are acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the central London office market from 1987 to 2009 and test for evidence of rational, adaptive and naive expectations. Design/methodology/approach – Two parallel approaches are applied to test for either rational or adaptive/naive expectations: vector auto-regressive (VAR) approach with Granger causality tests and recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts. Findings – Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, the authors do not find evidence of adaptive and naïve expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags between market signal and construction starts vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developer decisions are explained, to a large extent, by contemporaneous and historic conditions in both the City and the West End, but this is more likely to stem from the lengthy design, financing and planning permission processes rather than adaptive or naive expectations. Research limitations/implications – More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of large demand shocks and/or irrational behaviour. Practical implications – Developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. Originality/value – This paper focuses the scholarly debate of real estate cycles on the role of expectations. It is also one of very few spatially disaggregate studies of the subject matter.

Interpreting at Vindolanda: commercial and linguistic mediation in the Roman army.

A fragmentary tablet from Vindolanda (Tab. Vindol. II, 213) contains an occurrence of the verb interpretari (‘interpret’, ‘explain’, ‘mediate’) in an apparently commercial context, relating to the grain supply for the Roman fort. This usage is paralleled in a text on a wooden stilus tablet from Frisia in the Netherlands. ‘Interpreters’ and their activities make rather infrequent appearances in the Latin epigraphic and documentary records. In the Danubian provinces, interpreters (interpretes) are attested as army officers and officials in the office of the provincial governor. ‘Interpreters’, in both Latin and Greek inscriptions and papyri, often, however, play more ambiguous roles, not always connected with language-mediation, but also, or instead, with mediation in commercial transactions

Office noise and employee concentration: identifying causes of disruption and potential improvements

A field study assessed subjective reports of distraction from various office sounds among 88 employees at two sites. In addition, the study examined the amount of exposure the workers had to the noise in order to determine any evidence for habituation. Finally, respondents were asked how they would improve their environment ( with respect to noise), and to rate examples of improvements with regards to their job satisfaction and performance. Out of the sample, 99% reported that their concentration was impaired by various components of office noise, especially telephones left ringing at vacant desks and people talking in the background. No evidence for habituation to these sounds was found. These results are interpreted in the light of previous research regarding the effects of noise in offices and the 'irrelevant sound effect'.

A Lady of York: migration, ethnicity and identity in Roman Britain

Modern methods of analysis applied to cemeteries have often been used in our pages to suggest generalities about mobility and diet. But these same techniques applied to a single individual, together with the grave goods and burial rite, can open a special kind of personal window on the past. Here, the authors of a multidisciplinary project use a combination of scientific techniques to illuminate Roman York, and later Roman history in general, with their image of a glamorous mixed-race woman, in touch with Africa, Christianity, Rome and Yorkshire.