Does consumption-wealth ratio signal stock returns? VECM results for Germany

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption−wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two−stage method. In this paper, performance of the VECMs and the two−stage method are compared in both German and U.S. data. It is found that the VECMs are more suitable to study the effect of cay on stock returns than the two−stage method. Using the Conditional−Subset VECM, cay signals real stock returns and excess returns in both data sets significantly. The estimated coefficient on cay for stock returns turns out to be two times greater in U.S. data than in German data. When the two−stage method is used, cay has no significant effect on German stock returns. Besides, it is also found that cay signals German wealth growth and U.S. income growth significantly.

Isolating the signal of ocean global warming

Identifying the signature of global warming in the world's oceans is challenging because low frequency circulation changes can dominate local temperature changes. The IPCC fourth assessment reported an average ocean heating rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 Wm−2 over the period 1961–2003, with considerable spatial, interannual and inter-decadal variability. We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of the underlying warming. Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14°C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm−2 on average) than previous results. This new measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources of error in the ocean observing system. Our new analysis provides a useful addition for evaluation of coupled climate models, to the traditional fixed depth analyses.

Preparation of consistent soil data sets for modelling purposes: Secondary SOTER data for four case study areas

The common GIS-based approach to regional analyses of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes is to define geographic layers for which unique sets of driving variables are derived, which include land use, climate, and soils. These GIS layers, with their associated attribute data, can then be fed into a range of empirical and dynamic models. Common methodologies for collating and formatting regional data sets on land use, climate, and soils were adopted for the project Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks and Changes at National Scale (GEFSOC). This permitted the development of a uniform protocol for handling the various input for the dynamic GEFSOC Modelling System. Consistent soil data sets for Amazon-Brazil, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India, Jordan and Kenya, the case study areas considered in the GEFSOC project, were prepared using methodologies developed for the World Soils and Terrain Database (SOTER). The approach involved three main stages: (1) compiling new soil geographic and attribute data in SOTER format; (2) using expert estimates and common sense to fill selected gaps in the measured or primary data; (3) using a scheme of taxonomy-based pedotransfer rules and expert-rules to derive soil parameter estimates for similar soil units with missing soil analytical data. The most appropriate approach varied from country to country, depending largely on the overall accessibility and quality of the primary soil data available in the case study areas. The secondary SOTER data sets discussed here are appropriate for a wide range of environmental applications at national scale. These include agro-ecological zoning, land evaluation, modelling of soil C stocks and changes, and studies of soil vulnerability to pollution. Estimates of national-scale stocks of SOC, calculated using SOTER methods, are presented as a first example of database application. Independent estimates of SOC stocks are needed to evaluate the outcome of the GEFSOC Modelling System for current conditions of land use and climate. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

Thermopile radiometer signal conditioning for surface atmospheric radiation measurements

A highly stable microvolt amplifier for use with atmospheric broadband thermopile radiometers is described. The amplifier has a nominal gain of 500, for bipolar input signals in the range +/- 10 mV from a floating source. The noise level at the input is less than 5 mu V (at 100 k Omega input impedance), permitting instantaneous diffuse solar radiation measurements to 0.5 W m(-2) resolution with 12 bit analog to digital conversion. The temperature stability of gain is better than 5 ppm/degrees C (-4 to 20 degrees C). Averaged over a decade of use, the long term drift of the amplifier gain is less than similar to 0.02%/yr. As well as radiometers measuring solar and terrestrial radiations, the amplifier has also been successfully used with low level signals from thermocouples and ground heat flux plates.

CD40 Triggering of Heterodimeric IL-12 p70 Production by Dendritic Cells In Vivo Requires a Microbial Priming Signal

CD40 ligation triggers IL-12 production by dendritic cells (DC) in vitro. Here, we demonstrate that CD40 cross-linking alone is not sufficient to induce IL-12 production by DC in vivo. Indeed, resting DC make neither the IL-12 p35 nor IL-12 p40 subunits and express only low levels of CD40. Nevertheless, after DC activation by microbial stimuli that primarily upregulate IL-12 p40 and augment CD40 expression, CD40 ligation induces a significant increase in IL-12 p35 and IL-12 p70 heterodimer production. Similarly, IL-12 p70 is produced during T cell activation in the presence but not in the absence of microbial stimuli. Thus, production of bioactive IL-12 by DC can be amplified by T cell–derived signals but must be initiated by innate signals.

Functional significance of the signal transduction pathways Akt and Erk in ovarian follicles: in vitro and in vivo studies in cattle and sheep

BACKGROUND: The intracellular signalling mechanisms that regulate ovarian follicle development are unclear; however, we have recently shown differences in the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in dominant compared to subordinate follicles. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of inhibiting Akt and Erk phosphorylation on IGF- and gonadotropin- stimulated granulosa and theca cell function in vitro, and on follicle development in vivo. METHODS: Bovine granulosa and theca cells were cultured for six days and stimulated with FSH and/or IGF, or LH in combination with PD98059 (Erk inhibitor) and/or LY294002 (Akt inhibitor) and their effect on cell number and hormone secretion (estradiol, activin-A, inhibin-A, follistatin, progesterone and androstenedione) determined. In addition, ovarian follicles were treated in vivo with PD98059 and/or LY294002 in ewes on Day 3 of the cycle and follicles were recovered 48 hours later. RESULTS: We have shown that gonadotropin- and IGF-stimulated hormone production by granulosa and theca cells is reduced by treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 in vitro. Furthermore, treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 reduced follicle growth and oestradiol production in vivo. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate an important functional role for the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in follicle function, growth and development.

Mapping the landscape of the lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus stable signal peptide reveals novel functional domains

The stable signal peptide (SSP) of the lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus surface glycoprotein precursor has several unique characteristics. The SSP is unusually long, at 58 amino acids, and contains two hydrophobic domains, and its sequence is highly conserved among both Old and New World arenaviruses. To better understand the functions of the SSP, a panel of point and deletion mutants was created by in vitro mutagenesis to target the highly conserved elements within the SSP. We were also able to confirm critical residues required for separate SSP functions by trans-complementation. Using these approaches, it was possible to resolve functional domains of the SSP. In characterizing our SSP mutants, we discovered that the SSP is involved in several distinct functions within the viral life cycle, beyond translocation of the viral surface glycoprotein precursor into the endoplasmic reticulum lumen. The SSP is required for efficient glycoprotein expression, posttranslational maturation cleavage of GP1 and GP2 by SKI-1/S1P protease, glycoprotein transport to the cell surface plasma membrane, formation of infectious virus particles, and acid pH-dependent glycoprotein-mediated cell fusion.

Copper(II) complexes of tetradentate N2S2 donor sets: synthesis, crystal structure characterization and reactivity

Two mononuclear and one dinuclear copper(II) complexes, containing neutral tetradentate NSSN type ligands, of formulation [Cu-II(L-1)Cl]ClO4 (1), [Cu-II(L-2)Cl]ClO4 (2) and [Cu-2(II)(L-3)(2)Cl-2](ClO4)(2) (3) were synthesized and isolated in pure form [where L-1 = 1,2-bis(2-pyridylmethylthio)ethane, L-2 = 1,3-bis(2-pyridylmethylthio)propane and L-3 = 1,4-bis(2-pyridylmethylthio)butane]. All these green colored copper(II) complexes were characterized by physicochemical and spectroscopic methods. The dinuclear copper(II) complex 3 changed to a colorless dinuclear copper(I) species of formula [Cu-2(1)(L-3)(2)](ClO4)(2),0.5H(2)O (4) in dimethylformamide even in the presence of air at ambient temperature, while complexes I and 2 showed no change under similar conditions. The solid-state structures of complexes 1, 2 and 4 were established by X-ray crystallography. The geometry about the copper in complexes 1 and 2 is trigonal bipyramidal whereas the coordination environment about the copper(I) in dinuclear complex 4 is distorted tetrahedral. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.