Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Measuring and modelling mixture toxicity of imidacloprid and thiacloprid on Caenorhabditis elegans and Eisenia fetida

While the standard models of concentration addition and independent action predict overall toxicity of multicomponent mixtures reasonably, interactions may limit the predictive capability when a few compounds dominate a mixture. This study was conducted to test if statistically significant systematic deviations from concentration addition (i.e. synergism/antagonism, dose ratio- or dose level-dependency) occur when two taxonomically unrelated species, the earthworm Eisenia fetida and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans were exposed to a full range of mixtures of the similar acting neonicotinoid pesticides imidacloprid and thiacloprid. The effect of the mixtures on C. elegans was described significantly better (p<0.01) by a dose level-dependent deviation from the concentration addition model than by the reference model alone, while the reference model description of the effects on E. fetida could not be significantly improved. These results highlight that deviations from concentration addition are possible even with similar acting compounds, but that the nature of such deviations are species dependent. For improving ecological risk assessment of simple mixtures, this implies that the concentration addition model may need to be used in a probabilistic context, rather than in its traditional deterministic manner. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developmental changes in the germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and longevity of individual seeds of Trifolium ambiguum

Background and Aims: Using two parental clones of outcrossing Trifolium ambiguum as a potential model system, we examined how during seed development the maternal parent, number of seeds per pod, seed position within the pod, and pod position within the inflorescence influenced individual seed fresh weight, dry weight, water content, germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and subsequent longevity of individual seeds. Methods: Near simultaneous, manual reciprocal crosses were carried out between clonal lines for two experiments. Infructescences were harvested at intervals during seed development. Each individual seed was weighed and then used to determine dry weight or one of the physiological behaviour traits. Key Results: Whilst population mass maturity was reached at 33–36 days after pollination (DAP), seed-to-seed variation in maximum seed dry weight, when it was achieved, and when maturation drying commenced, was considerable. Individual seeds acquired germinability between 14 and 44 DAP, desiccation tolerance between 30 and 40 DAP, and the capability to become hardseeded between 30 and 47 DAP. The time for viability to fall to 50 % (p50) at 60 % relative humidity and 45 °C increased between 36 and 56 DAP, when the seed coats of most individuals had become dark orange, but declined thereafter. Individual seed f. wt at harvest did not correlate with air-dry storage survival period. Analysing survival data for cohorts of seeds reduced the standard deviation of the normal distribution of seed deaths in time, but no sub-population showed complete uniformity of survival period. Conclusions: Variation in individual seed behaviours within a developing population is inherent and inevitable. In this outbreeder, there is significant variation in seed longevity which appears dependent on embryo genotype with little effect of maternal genotype or architectural factors.

Post-abscission, pre-dispersal seeds of Digitalis purpurea remain in a developmental state that is not terminated by desiccation ex planta

Seed quality may be compromised if seeds are harvested before natural dispersal (shedding). It has been shown previously that slow or delayed drying can increase potential quality compared with immediate rapid drying. This study set out to investigate whether or not there is a critical moisture content, below which drying terminates maturation events for seeds harvested after mass maturity but before dispersal. Seeds of foxglove (Digitalis purpurea) in the post-abscission pre-dispersal phase were held at between 15 and 95 % RH for 4 or 8 d, with or without re-hydration to 95 % RH for a further 4 d, before drying to equilibrium at 15 % RH. In addition, dry seeds were primed for 48 h at -1 MPa. Subsequent seed longevity was assessed at 60 % RH and 45 degrees C. Rate of germination and longevity were improved by holding seeds at a wide range of humidities after harvest. Longevity was further improved by re-hydration at 95 % RH. Priming improved the longevity of the seeds dried immediately after harvest, but not of those first held at 95 % RH for 8 d prior to drying. Maturation continued ex planta in these post-abscission, pre-dispersal seeds of D. purpurea dried at 15-80 % RH at a rate correlated positively with RH (cf. ageing of mature seeds). Subsequent re-hydration at 95 % RH enabled a further improvement in quality. Priming seeds initially stored air-dry for 3 months also allowed maturation events to resume. However, once individual seeds within the population had reached maximum longevity, priming had a negative impact on their subsequent survival.

Priming and re-drying improve the survival of mature seeds of Digitalis purpurea during storage

Most priming studies have been conducted on commercial seed lots of unspecified uniformity and maturity, and subsequent seed longevity has been reported to both increase and decrease. Here a seed lot of Digitalis purpurea L. with relatively uniform maturity and known history was used to analyse the effects of priming on seed longevity in air-dry storage. Seeds collected close to natural dispersal and dried at 15 % relative humidity (RH), 15 degrees C, were placed into experimental storage (60 % RH, 45 degrees C) for 14 or 28 d, primed for 48 h at 0, -1, -2, -5, -10 or -15 MPa, re-equilibrated (47 % RH, 20 degrees C) and then returned to storage. Further seed samples were primed for 2 or 48 h at -1 MPa and either dried at 15 % RH, 15 degrees C or immediately re-equilibrated for experimental storage. Finally, some seeds were given up to three cycles of experimental storage and priming (48 h at -1 MPa). Priming at -1 MPa had a variable effect on subsequent survival during experimental storage. The shortest lived seeds in the control population showed slightly increased life spans; the longer lived seeds showed reduced life spans. In contrast, seeds first stored for 14 or 28 d before priming had substantially increased life spans. The increase tended to be greatest in the shortest lived fraction of the seed population. Both the period of rehydration and the subsequent drying conditions had significant effects on longevity. Interrupting air-dry storage with additional cycles of priming also increased longevity. The extent of prior deterioration and the post-priming desiccation environment affect the benefits of priming to the subsequent survival of mature seeds. Rehydration-dehydration treatments may have potential as an adjunct or alternative to the regeneration of seed accessions maintained in gene banks for plant biodiversity conservation or plant breeding.

Survival and vigour of ultra-dry seeds after ten years of hermetic storage

Seeds of carrot, groundnut, lettuce, oilseed rape and onion were stored hermetically in laminated aluminium foil packets in four environments (dry or ultra-dry moisture contents combined factorially with temperatures of 20 degrees C or -20 degrees C), replicated at several sites. After ten years' hermetic storage, seed moisture content, equilibrium relative humidity, viability (assessed by ability to germinate normally in standard germination tests) and vigour were determined. After a decade, the change in seed moisture content of samples stored at -20 degrees C was small or nil. Except for groundnut and lettuce (where loss in viability was about 8 and 3%, respectively), no loss in viability was detected after 10 years' hermetic storage at -20 degrees C. In all cases, there was no difference in seed survival between moisture contents at this temperature (P > 0.25). Comparison of seed vigour (root length and rate of germination) also confirmed that drying to moisture contents in equilibrium with 10-12% r.h. had no detrimental effect to longevity when stored at -20 degrees C: the only significant (P < 0.05) differences detected were slightly greater root lengths for ultra-dry storage of four of the six seed lots. Seed moisture content had increased after a decade at 20 degrees C (generally to the level in equilibrium with ambient relative humidity). Hence, sub-zero temperature storage helped maintain the long-term integrity of the laminated aluminium foil packets, as well as that of the seeds within.

Factors influencing the germination of myrtle (Lagerstroemia speciosa (L.) Pers. and L-floribunda Jack) seeds

Gibberellic acid and potassium nitrate did not promote the germination of myrtle seeds when tested at 20/30degreesC (16/8h). Germination was promoted considerably by alternating temperatures. The results of an investigation on a two-dimensional temperature gradient plate showed that myrtle seeds germinated most rapidly (within 14 days) and fully (all viable seeds) at 35/22.5degreesC (16/8 h) and similar regimes. Tests on five seed lots of Lagerstroemia speciosa and L. floribunda showed the efficacy of the alternating temperature regime of 35/20degreesC (16/8 h) in promoting germination. Thus we recommend myrtle seeds be tested for germination in this regime for 28 days.

Seeds of growth? Agricultural productivity and the transitional dynamics of the Ramsey model

A two-sector Ramsey-type model of growth is developed to investigate the relationship between agricultural productivity and economy-wide growth. The framework takes into account the peculiarities of agriculture both in production ( reliance on a fixed natural resource base) and in consumption (life-sustaining role and low income elasticity of food demand). The transitional dynamics of the model establish that when preferences respect Engel's law, the level and growth rate of agricultural productivity influence the speed of capital accumulation. A calibration exercise shows that a small difference in agricultural productivity has drastic implications for the rate and pattern of growth of the economy. Hence, low agricultural productivity can form a bottleneck limiting growth, because high food prices result in a low saving rate.

Drying method influences the development of germinability, dessication tolerance and subsequent longevity of immature seeds of sumauma (Ceiba pentandra (L.) Gaertn. [Bombacaceae])

The ability to germinate, tolerate desiccation and survive in air-dry storage was investigated during early seed development in planta and subsequent ex planta maturation of sumauma (Ceiba pentandra). Immature fruits were collected on three different dates (i.e. from about 5 days before until 7 days after mass maturity). Immature fresh seeds were not able to germinate. Fruits or seeds were subjected immediately after each collection to three different drying treatments with progressively slower rates of dessication: (i) seeds were extracted from the fruits and dried immediately; (ii) fruits were dried in a thin layer; (iii) fruits were dried in a tied polyethylene bag (with 10 holes of 1cm diameter). Drying was in a room maintained at 25 degrees C +/- 3 degrees C and 65%+/- 5% r.h. For treatment (i) the seeds were dried for 6 days in order to reduce moisture content to around 13% ( +/- 2%) moisture content. For treatments (ii) and (iii) the fruits were subjected to different periods of drying depending upon collection date. The results of these post-collection treatments showed generally that the more immature the seeds the slower the rate of drying that is required to improve ability to germinate, ability to tolerate desiccation and potential longevity, but at the third harvest, 7 days after mass maturity, the intermediate drying rate treatment was the most beneficial. Thus post fruit collection treatments can be modified depending upon the stage of seed development in order to provide good to high quality seeds of sumauma when collection has to be made at a site with difficult access at less than ideal times. The results are relevant to seed collection practices for both forestry and ex situ plant biodiversity conservation.

Onset of germinability, desiccation tolerance and hardseededness in developing seeds of Peltophorum pterocarpum (DC) K. Heyne (Caesalpinioideae)

In the hot and dry conditions in which seeds of the tree legume Peltophorum pterocarpum develop and mature in Vietnam, seed moisture content declined rapidly on the mother plant from 87% at 42 d after flowering (DAF) to 15% at 70 DAF. Dry weight of the pods attained a maximum value at about 42 DAF, but seed mass maturity (i.e. the end of the seed-filling phase) occurred at about 62 DAF, at which time seed moisture content was about 45-48%. The onset of the ability of freshly collected seeds to germinate (in 63-d tests at 28-34degreesC) occurred at 42 DAF, i.e. about 20 d before mass maturity. Full germination (98%) was attained at 70 DAF, i.e. at about 8 d after mass maturity. Thereafter, germination of fresh seeds declined, due to the imposition of a hard seed coat. Tolerance of desiccation to 10% moisture content was first detected at 56 DAF and was complete within the seed population by 84 DAF, i.e. about 22 d after mass maturity. Hardseededness began to be induced when seeds were dried to about 15% moisture content and below, with a negative logarithmic relation between hardseededness and moisture content below this value.