Framing the local and the global in the anti-nuclear movement: Law and the politics of place

This article examines the politics of place in relation to legal mobilization by the anti-nuclear movement. It examines two case examples - citizens' weapons inspections and civil disobedience strategies - which have involved the movement drawing upon the law in particular spatial contexts. The article begins by examining a number of factors which have been employed in recent social movement literature to explain strategy choice, including ideology, resources, political and legal opportunity, and framing. It then proceeds to argue that the issues of scale, space, and place play an important role in relation to framing by the movement in the two case examples. Both can be seen to involve scalar reframing, with the movement attempting to resist localizing tendencies and to replace them with a global frame. Both also involve an attempt to reframe the issue of nuclear weapons away from the contested frame of the past (unilateral disarmament) towards the more universal and widely accepted frame of international law.

Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3

Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2×CO2). Daily winter (December-January-February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2×CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher-dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2×CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large-scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling.

Probing the large-scale topology of the heliospheric magnetic field using Jovian electrons

Jupiter’s magnetosphere acts as a point source of near-relativistic electrons within the heliosphere. In this study, three solar cycles of Jovian electron data in near-Earth space are examined. Jovian electron intensity is found to peak for an ideal Parker spiral connection, but with considerable spread about this point. Assuming the peak in Jovian electron counts indicates the best magnetic connection to Jupiter, we find a clear trend for fast and slow solar wind to be over- and under-wound with respect to the ideal Parker spiral, respectively. This is shown to be well explained in terms of solar wind stream interactions. Thus, modulation of Jovian electrons by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) may primarily be the result of changing magnetic connection, rather than CIRs acting as barriers to cross-field diffusion. By using Jovian electrons to remote sensing magnetic connectivity with Jupiter’s magnetosphere, we suggest that they provide a means to validate solar wind models between 1 and 5 AU, even when suitable in situ solar wind observations are not available. Furthermore, using Jovian electron observations as probes of heliospheric magnetic topology could provide insight into heliospheric magnetic field braiding and turbulence, as well as any systematic under-winding of the heliospheric magnetic field relative to the Parker spiral from footpoint motion of the magnetic field.

Global scale water stages from SAR imagery (GlosSARi) to support global flood forecasting

Despite the success of studies attempting to integrate remotely sensed data and flood modelling and the need to provide near-real time data routinely on a global scale as well as setting up online data archives, there is to date a lack of spatially and temporally distributed hydraulic parameters to support ongoing efforts in modelling. Therefore, the objective of this project is to provide a global evaluation and benchmark data set of floodplain water stages with uncertainties and assimilation in a large scale flood model using space-borne radar imagery. An algorithm is developed for automated retrieval of water stages with uncertainties from a sequence of radar imagery and data are assimilated in a flood model using the Tewkesbury 2007 flood event as a feasibility study. The retrieval method that we employ is based on possibility theory which is an extension of fuzzy sets and that encompasses probability theory. In our case we first attempt to identify main sources of uncertainty in the retrieval of water stages from radar imagery for which we define physically meaningful ranges of parameter values. Possibilities of values are then computed for each parameter using a triangular ‘membership’ function. This procedure allows the computation of possible values of water stages at maximum flood extents along a river at many different locations. At a later stage in the project these data are then used in assimilation, calibration or validation of a flood model. The application is subsequently extended to a global scale using wide swath radar imagery and a simple global flood forecasting model thereby providing improved river discharge estimates to update the latter.

State-space model identification of a wireless THz network

We model the large scale fading of wireless THz communications links deployed in a metropolitan area taking into account reception through direct line of sight, ground or wall reflection and diffraction. The movement of the receiver in the three dimensions is modelled by an autonomous dynamic linear system in state-space whereas the geometric relations involved in the attenuation and multi-path propagation of the electric field are described by a static non-linear mapping. A subspace algorithm in conjunction with polynomial regression is used to identify a Wiener model from time-domain measurements of the field intensity.

MIMO Wiener model identification for large scale fading of wireless mobile communications links

The large scale fading of wireless mobile communications links is modelled assuming the mobile receiver motion is described by a dynamic linear system in state-space. The geometric relations involved in the attenuation and multi-path propagation of the electric field are described by a static non-linear mapping. A Wiener system subspace identification algorithm in conjunction with polynomial regression is used to identify a model from time-domain estimates of the field intensity assuming a multitude of emitters and an antenna array at the receiver end.

Accurate radiometry from space: an essential tool for climate studies

The Earth's climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a ‘primary standard’ and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a ‘metrology laboratory in space’.

The CloudSat mission and the A-train: a new dimension of space-based observations of clouds and precipitation

CloudSat is a satellite experiment designed to measure the vertical structure of clouds from space. The expected launch of CloudSat is planned for 2004, and once launched, CloudSat will orbit in formation as part of a constellation of satellites (the A-Train) that includes NASA's Aqua and Aura satellites, a NASA-CNES lidar satellite (CALIPSO), and a CNES satellite carrying a polarimeter (PARASOL). A unique feature that CloudSat brings to this constellation is the ability to fly a precise orbit enabling the fields of view of the CloudSat radar to be overlapped with the CALIPSO lidar footprint and the other measurements of the constellation. The precision and near simultaneity of this overlap creates a unique multisatellite observing system for studying the atmospheric processes essential to the hydrological cycle.The vertical profiles of cloud properties provided by CloudSat on the global scale fill a critical gap in the investigation of feedback mechanisms linking clouds to climate. Measuring these profiles requires a combination of active and passive instruments, and this will be achieved by combining the radar data of CloudSat with data from other active and passive sensors of the constellation. This paper describes the underpinning science and general overview of the mission, provides some idea of the expected products and anticipated application of these products, and the potential capability of the A-Train for cloud observations. Notably, the CloudSat mission is expected to stimulate new areas of research on clouds. The mission also provides an important opportunity to demonstrate active sensor technology for future scientific and tactical applications. The CloudSat mission is a partnership between NASA's JPL, the Canadian Space Agency, Colorado State University, the U.S. Air Force, and the U.S. Department of Energy.

Historicizing counterurbanization: in-migration and the reconstruction of rural space in Berkshire (UK), 1901-51

This article uses census data for Berkshire to argue that large-scale counterurbanization began much earlier than is generally recognized in some parts of southern England. This was not just movement down the urban hierarchy, which as Pooley and Turnbull have demonstrated was a long-term feature of England’s settlement system, but in some cases at least amenity-driven migration to rural areas of the kind increasingly recognized as a core component of recent counterurbanization. Despite a reduction of acreage Berkshire’s rural districts saw a 54% rise in population between 1901 and 1951. The sub-regional pattern of growth is assessed to gauge whether ‘clean break’ migration to the remote west of the county (which remained effectively out of commuting range from London throughout the period) was taking place, or whether counterurbanization was confined to the more accessible eastern districts. However, whilst population did increase in both west and east, it was in fact the central districts that grew most impressively. Three case study parishes are investigated in order to gauge the nature and consequences of counterurbanization at a local level. Professional and business migrants figure prominently, seeking to preserve and promote the rural attributes of their new communities, without however cutting their ties to urban centres. It is argued that migration to rural Berkshire in the first half of the twentieth century cannot adequately be described either as a form of extended suburbanization or an anti-metropolitan ‘clean break’. Rather, early counterurbanization marks the first stage on the long road to a post-productivist countryside, in which countryside becomes detached from agriculture, there is socio-economic convergence between town and country, and the ‘rural’ increasingly becomes defined by landscape and identity rather than economic function.

Large-scale length and time scales for use with stochastic convective parameterization

Many numerical models for weather prediction and climate studies are run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve convection explicitly, but too fine to justify the local equilibrium assumed by conventional convective parameterizations. The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme, developed in this paper, solves this problem by removing the assumption that a given grid-scale situation must always produce the same sub-grid-scale convective response. Instead, for each timestep and gridpoint, one of the many possible convective responses consistent with the large-scale situation is randomly selected. The scheme requires as input the large-scale state as opposed to the instantaneous grid-scale state, but must nonetheless be able to account for genuine variations in the largescale situation. Here we investigate the behaviour of the PC scheme in three-dimensional simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium, demonstrating in particular that the necessary space-time averaging required to produce a good representation of the input large-scale state is not in conflict with the requirement to capture large-scale variations. The resulting equilibrium profiles agree well with those obtained from established deterministic schemes, and with corresponding cloud-resolving model simulations. Unlike the conventional schemes the statistics for mass flux and rainfall variability from the PC scheme also agree well with relevant theory and vary appropriately with spatial scale. The scheme is further shown to adapt automatically to changes in grid length and in forcing strength.

Reduced space optimal interpolation of daily rain gauge precipitation in Switzerland

The coarse spacing of automatic rain gauges complicates near-real- time spatial analyses of precipitation. We test the possibility of improving such analyses by considering, in addition to the in situ measurements, the spatial covariance structure inferred from past observations with a denser network. To this end, a statistical reconstruction technique, reduced space optimal interpolation (RSOI), is applied over Switzerland, a region of complex topography. RSOI consists of two main parts. First, principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to obtain a reduced space representation of gridded high- resolution precipitation fields available for a multiyear calibration period in the past. Second, sparse real-time rain gauge observations are used to estimate the principal component scores and to reconstruct the precipitation field. In this way, climatological information at higher resolution than the near-real-time measurements is incorporated into the spatial analysis. PCA is found to efficiently reduce the dimensionality of the calibration fields, and RSOI is successful despite the difficulties associated with the statistical distribution of daily precipitation (skewness, dry days). Examples and a systematic evaluation show substantial added value over a simple interpolation technique that uses near-real-time observations only. The benefit is particularly strong for larger- scale precipitation and prominent topographic effects. Small-scale precipitation features are reconstructed at a skill comparable to that of the simple technique. Stratifying the reconstruction method by the types of weather type classifications yields little added skill. Apart from application in near real time, RSOI may also be valuable for enhancing instrumental precipitation analyses for the historic past when direct observations were sparse.

Assessing continental-scale risks for generalist and specialist pollinating bee species under climate change

Increased risks of extinction to populations of animals and plants under changing climate have now been demonstrated for many taxa. This study assesses the extinction risks to species within an important genus of pollinating bees (Colletes: Apidae) by estimating the expected changes in the area and isolation of suitable habitat under predicted climatic condition for 2050. Suitable habitat was defined on the basis of the presence of known forage plants as well as climatic suitability. To investigate whether ecological specialisation was linked to extinction risk we compared three species which were generalist pollen foragers on several plant families with three species which specialised on pollen from a single plant species. Both specialist and generalist species showed an increased risk of extinction with shifting climate, and this was particularly high for the most specialised species (Colletes anchusae and C. wolfi). The forage generalist C. impunctatus, which is associated with Boreo-Alpine environments, is potentially threatened through significant reduction in available climatic niche space. Including the distribution of the principal or sole pollen forage plant, when modelling the distribution of monolectic or narrowly oligolectic species, did not improve the predictive accuracy of our models as the plant species were considerably more widespread than the specialised bees associated with them.

Large-scale two-dimensional turbulence in the atmosphere

Global FGGE data are used to investigate several aspects of large-scale turbulence in the atmosphere. The approach follows that for two-dimensional, nondivergent turbulent flows which are homogeneous and isotropic on the sphere. Spectra of kinetic energy, enstrophy and available potential energy are obtained for both the stationary and transient parts of the flow. Nonlinear interaction terms and fluxes of energy and enstrophy through wavenumber space are calculated and compared with the theory. A possible method of parameterizing the interactions with unresolved scales is considered. Two rather different flow regimes are found in wavenumber space. The high-wavenumber regime is dominated by the transient components of the flow and exhibits, at least approximately, several of the conditions characterizing homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. This region of wavenumber space also displays some of the features of an enstrophy-cascading inertial subrange. The low-wavenumber region, on the other hand, is dominated by the stationary component of the flow, exhibits marked anisotropy and, in contrast to the high-wavenumber regime, displays a marked change between January and July.

Planning at the neighbourhood scale: localism, dialogic politics and the modulation of community action

This paper builds upon literature examining the foreclosing of community interventions to show how a resident-led anti-road-noise campaign in South-Eastern England has been framed, managed and modulated by authorities. We situate the case within wider debates considering dialogical politics. For advocates, this offers the potential for empowerment through non-traditional forums (Beck, 1994; Giddens, 1994). Others view such trends, most recently expressed as part of the localism agenda, with suspicion (Haughton et al, 2013; Mouffe, 2005). The paper brings together these literatures to analyse the points at which modulation occurs in the community planning process. We describe the types of counter-tactics residents deployed to deflect the modulation of their demands, and the events that led to the outcome. We find that community planning offers a space - albeit one that is tightly circumscribed - within which (select) groups can effect change. The paper argues that the detail of neighbourhood-scale actions warrant further attention, especially as governmental enthusiasm for dialogical modes of politics shows no sign of abating.

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.