A multinomial model of applying recognition to judge between multiple alternatives

Proponents of the “fast and frugal” approach to decision-making suggest that inferential judgments are best made on the basis of limited information. For example, if only one of two cities is recognized and the task is to judge which city has the larger population, the recognition heuristic states that the recognized city should be selected. In preference choices with >2 options, it is also standard to assume that a “consideration set”, based upon some simple criterion, is established to reduce the options available. A multinomial processing tree model is outlined which provides the basis for estimating the extent to which recognition is used as a criterion in establishing a consideration set for inferential judgments.

Inferring the biggest and best: a measurement model for applying recognition to evoke consideration sets and judge between multiple alternatives

It has long been supposed that preference judgments between sets of to-be-considered possibilities are made by means of initially winnowing down the most promising-looking alternatives to form smaller “consideration sets” (Howard, 1963; Wright & Barbour, 1977). In preference choices with >2 options, it is standard to assume that a “consideration set”, based upon some simple criterion, is established to reduce the options available. Inferential judgments, in contrast, have more frequently been investigated in situations in which only two possibilities need to be considered (e.g., which of these two cities is the larger?) Proponents of the “fast and frugal” approach to decision-making suggest that such judgments are also made on the basis of limited, simple criteria. For example, if only one of two cities is recognized and the task is to judge which city has the larger population, the recognition heuristic states that the recognized city should be selected. A multinomial processing tree model is outlined which provides the basis for estimating the extent to which recognition is used as a criterion in establishing a consideration set for inferential judgments between three possible options.

Turing Test: Mindless Game?

The Turing Test, originally configured for a human to distinguish between an unseen man and unseen woman through a text-based conversational measure of gender, is the ultimate test for thinking. So conceived Alan Turing when he replaced the woman with a machine. His assertion, that once a machine deceived a human judge into believing that they were the human, then that machine should be attributed with intelligence. But is the Turing Test nothing more than a mindless game? We present results from recent Loebner Prizes, a platform for the Turing Test, and find that machines in the contest appear conversationally worse rather than better, from 2004 to 2006, showing a downward trend in highest scores awarded to them by human judges. Thus the machines are not thinking in the same way as a human intelligent entity would.

Radiometric dating of the Siloam Tunnel, Jerusalem

The historical credibility of texts from the Bible is often debated when compared with Iron Age archaeological finds (refs. 1, 2 and references therein). Modern scientific methods may, in principle, be used to independently date structures that seem to be mentioned in the biblical text, to evaluate its historical authenticity. In reality, however, this approach is extremely difficult because of poor archaeological preservation, uncertainty in identification, scarcity of datable materials, and restricted scientific access into well-identified worship sites. Because of these problems, no well-identified Biblical structure has been radiometrically dated until now. Here we report radiocarbon and U-Th dating of the Siloam Tunnel(3-10), proving its Iron Age II date; we conclude that the Biblical text presents an accurate historic record of the Siloam Tunnel's construction. Being one of the longest ancient water tunnels lacking intermediate shafts(11,12), dating the Siloam Tunnel is a key to determining where and when this technological breakthrough took place. Siloam Tunnel dating also refutes a claim(13) that the tunnel was constructed in the second century BC.

Comparison of EDTA and EDDS as potential soil amendments for enhanced phytoextraction of heavy metals

Phytoextraction has been proposed as an alternative remediation technology for soils polluted with heavy metals or radionuclides, but is generally conceived as too slow working. Enhancing the accumulation of trace pollutants in harvestable plant tissues is a prerequisite for the technology to be practically applicable. The chelating aminopolycarboxylic acid, ethylene diamine tetraacetate (EDTA), has been found to enhance shoot accumulation of heavy metals. However, the use of EDTA in phytoextraction may not be suitable due to its high environmental persistence, which may lead to groundwater contamination. This paper aims to assess whether ethylene diamine disuccinate (EDDS), a biodegradable chelator, can be used for enhanced phytoextraction purposes. A laboratory experiment was conducted to examine mobilisation of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb and Zn into the soil solution upon application of EDTA or EDDS. The longevity of the induced mobilisation was monitored for a period of 40 days after application. Estimated effect half lives ranged between 3.8 and 7.5 days for EDDS, depending on the applied dose. The minimum observed effect half life of EDTA was 36 days, while for the highest applied dose no decrease was observed throughout the 40 day period of the mobilisation experiment. Performance of EDTA and EDDS for phytoextraction was evaluated by application to Helianthus annuus. Two other potential chelators, known for their biodegradability in comparison to EDTA, were tested in the plant experiment: nitrilo acetic acid (NTA) and citric acid. Uptake of heavy metals was higher in EDDS-treated pots than in EDTA-treated pots. The effects were still considered insufficiently high to consider efficient remediation. This may be partly due to the choice of timing for application of the soil amendment. Fixing the time of application at an earlier point before harvest may yield better results. NTA and citric acid induced no significant effects on heavy metal uptake. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Greening the United Nations' Human Development Index?

The Human Development Index (HDI) introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1990 has helped facilitate widespread debate amongst development researchers, practitioners and policy makers. The HDI is an aggregate index, calculated on an annual basis by the UNDP and published in its Human Development Reports, comprising measures of three components deemed by them to be central to development: W income (the gross domestic product per capita), (ii) education (adult literacy rate) and (iii) health (life expectancy at birth). The results of calculating the HDI are typically presented as country/regional league tables, and provide a quick means for policy makers and others to judge performance. Perhaps partly because of the relative simplicity of the index, the HDI has managed to achieve a level of acceptance and use amongst politicians and policy makers that has yet to emerge with any indicator of sustainability. Indeed, despite its existence for 11 years, including nine years after the Rio Earth Summit, the HDI has not even been modified to take on board wider issues of sustainability. This paper will critically examine the potential for 'greening' the HDI so as to include environmental and resource-consumption dimensions. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

HESS Opinions ``Ensembles, uncertainty and flood prediction''

Ensemble predictions are being used more frequently to model the propagation of uncertainty through complex, coupled meteorological, hydrological and coastal models, with the goal of better characterising flood risk. In this paper, we consider the issues that we judge to be important when designing and evaluating ensemble predictions, and make recommendations for the guidance of future research.

Some factors affecting variation in milk yield in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting milk yield in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of milk yield, body condition score (BCS) and heart girth measurements were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in milk yield were investigated using a general linear model by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. Daily milk yield (including milk sucked by calves) was determined by calving year (p < 0.0001), calf rearing method (p = 0.044) and BCS at calving (p < 0.0001). Only BCS at calving contributed to variation in volume of milk sucked by the calf, lactation length and lactation milk yield. BCS at 3 months after calving was improved on farms where labour was hired (p = 0.041) and BCS change from calving to 6 months was more than twice as likely to be negative on U than SU and PU farms. It was concluded that milk production was predominantly associated with BCS at calving, lactation milk yield increasing quadratically from score 1 to 3. BCS at calving may provide a simple, single indicator of the nutritional status of a cow population.

Some factors affecting reproductive success in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in coastal north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting reproduction in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of reproductive traits and body condition score (BCS) were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in reproductive traits were investigated using a general linear model (GLM) by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), type of insemination, calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. The effects of the independent variables identified were then investigated using a non-parametric survival technique. The number of days to first oestrus was increased on the U site (p = 0.045) and when family labour was used (p = 0.02). The non-parametric test confirmed the effect of site (p = 0.059), but effect of labour was not significant. The number of days from calving to conception was reduced by hiring labour (p = 0.003) and using natural service (p = 0.028). The non-parametric test confirmed the effects of type of insemination (p = 0.0001) while also identifying extended calving intervals on U and SU sites (p = 0.014). Labour source was again non-significant. Calving interval was prolonged on U and SU sites (p = 0.021), by the use of AI (p = 0.031) and by the use of family labour (p = 0.001). The non-parametric test confirmed the effect of site (p = 0.008) and insemination type (p > 0.0001) but not of labour source. It was concluded that under favourable conditions (PU site, hired labour and natural service) calving intervals of around 440 days could be achieved.

Assessing the PhD: a constructive view of criteria

Research and informed debate reveals that institutional practices in relation to research degree examining vary considerably across the sector. Within a context of accountability and quality assurance/total quality management, the range and specificity of criteria that are used to judge doctoral work is of particular relevance. First, a review of the literature indicates that, although interest in and concern about the process is burgeoning, there is little empirical research published from which practitioners can draw guidance. The second part of the paper reviews that available research, drawing conclusions about issues that seem to pertain at a general level across disciplines and institutions. Lest the variation is an artefact of discipline difference, the third part of the paper focuses on a within discipline study. Criteria expected/predicted by supervisors are compared and contrasted with those anticipated and experienced by candidates and with those implemented and considered important by examiners. The results are disturbing.

The Nutritional Significance of Lipid Rafts

The structure, size, stability, and functionality of lipid rafts are still in debate, but recent techniques allowing direct visualization have characterized them in a wide range of cell types. Lipid rafts are potentially modifiable by diet, particularly (but not exclusively) by dietary fatty acids. However, it is not clear whether dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are incorporated into raft lipids or whether their low affinity to cholesterol disallows this and causes phase separation from rafts and displacement of raft proteins. This review examines the potential for dietary modification of raft structure and function in the immune system, brain and retinal tissue, the gut, and in cancer cells. Although there is increasing evidence to suggest that membrane microdomains, and their modulation, have an impact in health and disease, it is too early to judge whether modulation of lipid rafts is responsible for the immunomodulatory effects of n-3 PUFA. In addition to dietary fatty acids, gangliosides and cholesterol may also modulate microdomains in a number of tissues, and recent work has highlighted sphingolipids in membrane microdomains as potential targets for inhibition of tumor growth by n-3 PUFA. The roles of fatty acids and gangliosides in cognitive development, age-related cognitive decline, psychiatric disorders, and Alzheimer's disease are poorly understood and require clarification, particularly with respect to the contribution of lipid rafts. The roles of lipid rafts in cancer, in microbial pathogenesis, and in insulin resistance are only just emerging, but compelling evidence indicates the growing importance of membrane microdomains in health and disease.

Passive verb morphology: the effect of phonotactics on passive comprehension in typically developing and grammatical-SLI children

In this study we explore the impact of a morphological deficit on syntactic comprehension. A self-paced listening task was designed to investigate passive sentence processing in typically developing (TD) children and children with Grammatical-Specific Language Impairment (G-SLI). Participants had to judge whether the sentence they heard matched a picture they were shown. Working within the framework of the Computational Grammatical Complexity Hypothesis, which stresses how different components of the grammar interact, we tested whether children were able to use phonotactic cues to parse reversible passive sentences of the form the X was verbed by Y We predicted that TD children would be able to use phonotactics to parse a form like touched or hugged as a participle, and hence interpret passive sentences correctly. This cue is predicted not be used by G-SLI children, because they have difficulty building complex morphological representations. We demonstrate that indeed TD, but not G-SLI, children are able to use phonotactics cues in parsing passive sentences. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.