Direct Computation of Stochastic Flow in Reservoirs with Uncertain Parameters

A direct method is presented for determining the uncertainty in reservoir pressure, flow, and net present value (NPV) using the time-dependent, one phase, two- or three-dimensional equations of flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the solution is modelled as a probability distribution function and is computed from given statistical data for input parameters such as permeability. The method generates an expansion for the mean of the pressure about a deterministic solution to the system equations using a perturbation to the mean of the input parameters. Hierarchical equations that define approximations to the mean solution at each point and to the field covariance of the pressure are developed and solved numerically. The procedure is then used to find the statistics of the flow and the risked value of the field, defined by the NPV, for a given development scenario. This method involves only one (albeit complicated) solution of the equations and contrasts with the more usual Monte-Carlo approach where many such solutions are required. The procedure is applied easily to other physical systems modelled by linear or nonlinear partial differential equations with uncertain data.

Comparison of subcellular partitioning, distribution, and internal speciation of Cu between Cu-tolerant and naive populations of Dendrodrilus rubidus Savigny

When considering contaminated site ecology and ecological risk assessment a key question is whether organisms that appear unaffected by accumulation of contaminants are tolerant or resistant to those contaminants. A population of Dendrodrilus rubidus Savigny earthworms from the Coniston Copper Mines, an area of former Cu mining, exhibit increased tolerance and accumulation of Cu relative to a nearby non-Cu exposed population. Distribution of total Cu between different body parts (posterior, anterior, body wall) of the two populations was determined after a 14 day exposure to 250 mg Cu kg(-1) in Cu-amended soil. Cu concentrations were greater in Coniston earthworms but relative proportions of Cu in different body parts were the same between populations. Cu speciation was determined using extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS). Cu was coordinated to 0 atoms in the exposure soil but to S atoms in the earthworms. There was no difference in this speciation between the different earthworm populations. In another experiment earthworms were exposed to a range of Cu concentrations (200-700 mg Cu kg(-1)). Subcellular partitioning of accumulated Cu was determined. Coniston earthworms accumulated more Cu but relative proportions of Cu in the different fractions (cytosol > granular > tissue fragments, cell membranes, and intact cells) were the same between populations. Results suggest that Coniston D. rubidus are able to survive in the Cu-rich Coniston Copper Mines soil through enlargement of the same Cu storage reservoirs that exist in a nearby non-Cu exposed population.

The chlorine isotope composition of Earth's mantle

Chlorine stable isotope compositions ( delta Cl-37) of 22 mid- ocean ridge basalts ( MORBs) correlate with Cl content. The high-delta Cl-37, Cl- rich basalts are highly contaminated by Cl- rich materials ( seawater, brines, or altered rocks). The low-delta(37) Cl, Cl- poor basalts approach the composition of uncontaminated, mantle- derived magmas. Thus, most or all oceanic lavas are contaminated to some extent during their emplacement. MORB- source mantle has delta(37) Cl <= -1.6 per mil (%), which is significantly lower than that of surface reservoirs (similar to 0 parts per thousand not equal). This isotopic difference between the surface and deep Earth results from net Cl isotopic fractionation ( associated with removal of Cl from the mantle and its return by subduction over Earth history) and/ or the addition ( to external reservoirs) of a late volatile supply that is Cl-37- enriched.

The Upper Valanginian (Early Cretaceous) positive carbon-isotope event recorded in terrestrial plants

Our understanding of the ancient ocean-atmosphere system has focused on oceanic proxies. However, the study of terrestrial proxies is equally necessary to constrain our understanding of ancient climates and linkages between the terrestrial and oceanic carbon reservoirs. We have analyzed carbon-isotope ratios from fossil plant material through the Valanginian and Lower Hauterivian from a shallow-marine, ammonite-constrained succession in the Crimean Peninsula of the southern Ukraine in order to determine if the Upper Valanginian positive carbon-isotope excursion is expressed in the atmosphere. delta(13)C(plant) values fluctuate around -23% to -22% for the Valanginian-Hauterivian, except during the Upper Valanginian where delta(13)C(plant) values record a positive excursion to similar to-18%. Based upon ammonite biostratigraphy from Crimea, and in conjunction with a composite Tethyan marine delta(13)C(carb) curve, several conclusions can be drawn: (1) the delta(13)C(plant) record indicates that the atmospheric carbon reservoir was affected; (2) the defined ammonite correlations between Europe and Crimea are synchronous; and (3) a change in photosynthetic carbon-isotope fractionation, caused by a decrease in atmospheric PCO2, occurred during the Upper Valanginian Positive delta(13)C excursion. Our new data, combined with other paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information, indicate that the Upper Valanginian was a cool period (icehouse) and highlights that the Cretaceous period was interrupted by periods of cooling and was not an equable climate as previously thought. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Acoustic and petrophysical relationships in low-shale sandstone reservoir rocks

This paper describes the measurements of the acoustic and petrophysical properties of two suites of low-shale sandstone samples from North Sea hydrocarbon reservoirs, under simulated reservoir conditions. The acoustic velocities and quality factors of the samples, saturated with different pore fluids (brine, dead oil and kerosene), were measured at a frequency of about 0.8 MHz and over a range of pressures from 5 MPa to 40 MPa. The compressional-wave velocity is strongly correlated with the shear-wave velocity in this suite of rocks. The ratio V-P/V-S varies significantly with change of both pore-fluid type and differential pressure, confirming the usefulness of this parameter for seismic monitoring of producing reservoirs. The results of quality factor measurements were compared with predictions from Biot-flow and squirt-flow loss mechanisms. The results suggested that the dominating loss in these samples is due to squirt-flow of fluid between the pores of various geometries. The contribution of the Biot-flow loss mechanism to the total loss is negligible. The compressional-wave quality factor was shown to be inversely correlated with rock permeability, suggesting the possibility of using attenuation as a permeability indicator tool in low-shale, high-porosity sandstone reservoirs.

DISTRIBUTION OF Cr, Pb, Cu, Cd AND Zn IN SEDIMENTS OF THE DOBCZYCE DAM RESERVOIR (SOUTHERN POLAND)

Sediments play a fundamental role in the behaviour of contaminants in aquatic systems. Various processes in sediments, eg adsorption-desorption, oxidation-reduction, ion exchange or biological activities, can cause accumulation or release of metals and anions from the bottom of reservoirs, and have been recently studied in Polish waters [1-3]. Sediment samples from layer A: (1 divided by 6 cm depth in direct contact with bottom water); layer B: (7 divided by 12 cm depth moderate contact); and layer C: (12+ cm depth, in theory an inactive layer) were collected in September 2007 from six sites representing different types of hydrological conditions along the Dobczyce Reservoir (Fig. l). Water depths at the sampling points varied from 3.5 to 21 m. We have focused on studying the distribution and accumulation of several heavy metals (Cr, Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn) in the sediments. The surface, bottom and pore water (extracted from sediments by centrifugation) samples were also collected. Possible relationships between the heavy-metal distribution in sediments and the sediment characteristics (mineralogy, organic matter) as well as the Fe, Mn and Ca content of sediments, have been studied. The 02 concentrations in water samples were also measured. The heavy metals in sediments ranged from 19.0 to 226.3 mg/kg of dry mass (ppm). The results show considerable variations in heavy-metal concentrations between the 6 stations, but not in the individual layers (A, B, C). These variations are related to the mineralogy and chemical composition of the sediments and their pore waters.

Medusa, Antaeus, and Caesar Libycus

Although it is well known that Lucan’s Libya is a wild and threatening place, its threat is not restricted to indigenous people, places and things, such as Hannibal, Cleopatra, the Syrtes, or the desert with its catalogue of horrifying snakes. He also associates Libya with anti-Republican Romans, above all Julius Caesar, who endangers the Republic with his excessive, animalistic energy and resembles the continent where he is trapped in the final book. Although the gods as characters are removed from the world of the Bellum Civile, Lucan allows supernatural traces to linger in particular locations such as the Gallic grove in Book 3 or Thessaly in Book 6. Libya is by far the greatest of these reservoirs of frightening myth and fantasy, which do violence to the historical credibility of the narrative, just as Libya itself is presented as the origin or conduit of a number of historical characters who assault Italy and Europe. Lucan’s two mythic narratives (Antaeus in Book 4 and Medusa in Book 9) are essential parts of the hostile Libyan landscape, but in very different ways. The male Antaeus, associated with lions, is connected with a region of solid rock where he was destroyed. The female Medusa, associated with snakes, is connected with a region of shifting sands where she left a deadly, everlasting legacy. To complicate matters further, even though Medusa’s snakes represent the annihilation of the Republican self, the logic of the narrative is undermined and there is even a sympathetic subtext. As part of Libya’s historical and mythical legacy, these stories reveal that for Lucan, historical epic is linked with Republicanism, but mythical epic is in the service of dictatorship.

The relationship between multi-species catch and effort: among fishery comparisons

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.

Comparative micromorphology of nectariferous and nectarless labellar spurs in selected clades of subtribe Orchidinae (Orchidaceae)

Floral nectar spurs are widely considered to influence pollinator behaviour in orchids. Spurs of 21 orchid species selected from within four molecularly circumscribed clades of subtribe Orchidinae (based on Platanthera s.l., Gymnadenia-Dactylorhiza s.l., Anacamptis s.l., Orchis s.s.) were examined under light and scanning electron microscopes in order to estimate correlations between nectar production (categorized as absent, trace, reservoir), interior epidermal papillae (categorized as absent, short, medium, long) and epidermal cell striations (categorized as apparently absent, weak, moderate, strong). Closely related congeneric species scored similarly, but more divergent species showed less evidence of phylogenetic constraints. Nectar secretion was negatively correlated with striations and positively correlated with papillae, which were especially frequent and large in species producing substantial reservoirs of nectar. We speculate that the primary function of the papillae is conserving energy through nectar resorption and explain the presence of large papillae in a minority of deceit-pollinated species by arguing that the papillae improve pollination because they are a tactile expectation of pollinating insects. In contrast, the prominence of striations may be a 'spandrel', simply reflecting the thickness of the overlying cuticle. Developmentally, the spur is an invagination of the labellum; it is primarily vascularized by a single 'U'-shaped primary strand, with smaller strands present in some species. Several suggestions are made for developing further, more targeted research programmes. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 160, 369-387.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

Identification of Bartonella species in rodents, shrews and cats in Denmark: detection of two B-henselae variants, one in cats and the other in the long-tailed field mouse

Small mammals and stray cats were trapped in two areas of North Zealand, Denmark, and their blood cultured for hemotrophic bacteria. Bacterial isolates were recovered in pure culture and subjected to 16S rDNA gene sequencing. Bartonella species were isolated from five mammalian species: B. grahamii from Microtus agrestis (field vole) and Apodemus flavicollis (yellow-necked field mouse); B. taylorii from M. agrestis, A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus (long-tailed field mouse); B. tribocorum from A. flavicollis; R vinsonii subsp. vinsonii from M. agrestis and A. sylvaticus; and B. birtlesii from Sorex vulgaris (common shrew). In addition, two variant types of B. henselae were identified: variant I was recovered from three specimens of A. sylvaticus, and B. henselae variant 11 from I I cats; in each case this was the only B. henselae variant found. No Bartonella species was isolated from Clethrionomys glareolus (bank vole) or Micromys minutus (harvest mouse). These results suggest that B. henselae occurs in two animal reservoirs in this region, one of variant I in A. sylvaticus, which may be transmitted between mice by the tick Ixodes ricinus, and another of variant 11 in cats, which may be transmitted by the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis). To our knowledge, this is the first report of the occurrence of B. henselae and B. tribocorum in Apodemus mice.

Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping) to building adaptive capacity, implementing actions and creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These actions within government stimulate a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (or in the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The water supply and flood defence sectors, requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure such as reservoirs and coastal defences, have invested more heavily in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Economic sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that while the government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost, it may also have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

Identifying and quantifying nonconservative energy production/destruction terms in hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation models

This paper seeks to illustrate the point that physical inconsistencies between thermodynamics and dynamics usually introduce nonconservative production/destruction terms in the local total energy balance equation in numerical ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Such terms potentially give rise to undesirable forces and/or diabatic terms in the momentum and thermodynamic equations, respectively, which could explain some of the observed errors in simulated ocean currents and water masses. In this paper, a theoretical framework is developed to provide a practical method to determine such nonconservative terms, which is illustrated in the context of a relatively simple form of the hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation used in early versions of OGCMs, for which at least four main potential sources of energy nonconservation are identified; they arise from: (1) the “hanging” kinetic energy dissipation term; (2) assuming potential or conservative temperature to be a conservative quantity; (3) the interaction of the Boussinesq approximation with the parameterizations of turbulent mixing of temperature and salinity; (4) some adiabatic compressibility effects due to the Boussinesq approximation. In practice, OGCMs also possess spurious numerical energy sources and sinks, but they are not explicitly addressed here. Apart from (1), the identified nonconservative energy sources/sinks are not sign definite, allowing for possible widespread cancellation when integrated globally. Locally, however, these terms may be of the same order of magnitude as actual energy conversion terms thought to occur in the oceans. Although the actual impact of these nonconservative energy terms on the overall accuracy and physical realism of the oceans is difficult to ascertain, an important issue is whether they could impact on transient simulations, and on the transition toward different circulation regimes associated with a significant reorganization of the different energy reservoirs. Some possible solutions for improvement are examined. It is thus found that the term (2) can be substantially reduced by at least one order of magnitude by using conservative temperature instead of potential temperature. Using the anelastic approximation, however, which was initially thought as a possible way to greatly improve the accuracy of the energy budget, would only marginally reduce the term (4) with no impact on the terms (1), (2) and (3).