Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Bayesian ranking and selection of fishing boat efficiencies

The steadily accumulating literature on technical efficiency in fisheries attests to the importance of efficiency as an indicator of fleet condition and as an object of management concern. In this paper, we extend previous work by presenting a Bayesian hierarchical approach that yields both efficiency estimates and, as a byproduct of the estimation algorithm, probabilistic rankings of the relative technical efficiencies of fishing boats. The estimation algorithm is based on recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods—Gibbs sampling, in particular—which have not been widely used in fisheries economics. We apply the method to a sample of 10,865 boat trips in the US Pacific hake (or whiting) fishery during 1987–2003. We uncover systematic differences between efficiency rankings based on sample mean efficiency estimates and those that exploit the full posterior distributions of boat efficiencies to estimate the probability that a given boat has the highest true mean efficiency.

Facial feature extraction and selection by Gabor wavelets and boosting

In this paper, we present a feature selection approach based on Gabor wavelet feature and boosting for face verification. By convolution with a group of Gabor wavelets, the original images are transformed into vectors of Gabor wavelet features. Then for individual person, a small set of significant features are selected by the boosting algorithm from a large set of Gabor wavelet features. The experiment results have shown that the approach successfully selects meaningful and explainable features for face verification. The experiments also suggest that for the common characteristics such as eyes, noses, mouths may not be as important as some unique characteristic when training set is small. When training set is large, the unique characteristics and the common characteristics are both important.

The timing and selection ability of UK property funds: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the selectivity and market timing performance of a sample of 21 UK property funds over the period Q3 1977 through to Q2 1987. The main finding of which that there is evidence of some superior selectivity performance on the part of UK property funds but that there are few funds who are able to successfully time the market.

Criteria for validation and selection of cognitive tests for investigating the effects of foods and nutrients.

This review is an output of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Europe Marker Initiative, which aims to identify evidence-based criteria for selecting adequate measures of nutrient effects on health through comprehensive literature review. Experts in cognitive and nutrition sciences examined the applicability of these proposed criteria to the field of cognition with respect to the various cognitive domains usually assessed to reflect brain or neurological function. This review covers cognitive domains important in the assessment of neuronal integrity and function, commonly used tests and their state of validation, and the application of the measures to studies of nutrition and nutritional intervention trials. The aim is to identify domain-specific cognitive tests that are sensitive to nutrient interventions and from which guidance can be provided to aid the application of selection criteria for choosing the most suitable tests for proposed nutritional intervention studies using cognitive outcomes. The material in this review serves as a background and guidance document for nutritionists, neuropsychologists, psychiatrists, and neurologists interested in assessing mental health in terms of cognitive test performance and for scientists intending to test the effects of food or food components on cognitive function.

An exploration of the role duality experienced by HR professionals as both implementers and recipients of HR practices: evidence from the Indian railways

This study provides an innovative perspective on empirically assessing HR by focusing on the duality of HR professionals’ experiences as both implementers and recipients or internal customers of HR practices given that they are also employees of the organization. We hypothesize that HR professionals experience HR practices more favorably from an implementer perspective as compared to an internal customer perspective. These differences in experiences are likely to be influenced by HR professionals’ hierarchical position in the HR department. Our analyses of 1,271 HR professionals employed by Indian Railways revealed a number of differences between the two types of experience. Some practices (recruitment and selection, training, and employee welfare) were viewed more negatively from the implementer perspective, whereas others (compensation, benefits, and employment relations) were rated more negatively from the internal customer perspective. Those holding more senior HR positions reported more positive experiences of training and employment relations from an internal customer perspective. Overall our contributions draw on the attribution theory and concepts of intraorganizational power and voice, and have implications concerning the effectiveness of HR practices. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The road not taken: observing a process of issue selection and model conceptualization

This article describes a case study involving information technology managers and their new programmer recruitment policy, but the primary interest is methodological. The processes of issue generation and selection and model conceptualization are described. Early use of “magnetic hexagons” allowed the generation of a range of issues, most of which would not have emerged if system dynamics elicitation techniques had been employed. With the selection of a specific issue, flow diagraming was used to conceptualize a model, computer implementation and scenario generation following naturally. Observations are made on the processes of system dynamics modeling, particularly on the need to employ general techniques of knowledge elicitation in the early stages of interventions. It is proposed that flexible approaches should be used to generate, select, and study the issues, since these reduce any biasing of the elicitation toward system dynamics problems and also allow the participants to take up the most appropriate problem- structuring approach.

Mediating between hearer's and speaker's views in the generation of adaptive explanations

In this article, we examine the case of a system that cooperates with a “direct” user to plan an activity that some “indirect” user, not interacting with the system, should perform. The specific application we consider is the prescription of drugs. In this case, the direct user is the prescriber and the indirect user is the person who is responsible for performing the therapy. Relevant characteristics of the two users are represented in two user models. Explanation strategies are represented in planning operators whose preconditions encode the cognitive state of the indirect user; this allows tailoring the message to the indirect user's characteristics. Expansion of optional subgoals and selection among candidate operators is made by applying decision criteria represented as metarules, that negotiate between direct and indirect users' views also taking into account the context where explanation is provided. After the message has been generated, the direct user may ask to add or remove some items, or change the message style. The system defends the indirect user's needs as far as possible by mentioning the rationale behind the generated message. If needed, the plan is repaired and the direct user model is revised accordingly, so that the system learns progressively to generate messages suited to the preferences of people with whom it interacts.

Mutational activation of niche-specific genes provides insight into regulatory networks and bacterial function in a complex environment

The genome of the plant-colonizing bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 harbors a subset of genes that are expressed specifically on plant surfaces. The function of these genes is central to the ecological success of SBW25, but their study poses significant challenges because no phenotype is discernable in vitro. Here, we describe a genetic strategy with general utility that combines suppressor analysis with IVET (SPyVET) and provides a means of identifying regulators of niche-specific genes. Central to this strategy are strains carrying operon fusions between plant environment-induced loci (EIL) and promoterless 'dapB. These strains are prototrophic in the plant environment but auxotrophic on laboratory minimal medium. Regulatory elements were identified by transposon mutagenesis and selection for prototrophs on minimal medium. Approximately 106 mutants were screened for each of 27 strains carrying 'dapB fusions to plant EIL and the insertion point for the transposon determined in approximately 2,000 putative regulator mutants. Regulators were functionally characterized and used to provide insight into EIL phenotypes. For one strain carrying a fusion to the cellulose-encoding wss operon, five different regulators were identified including a diguanylate cyclase, the flagella activator, FleQ, and alginate activator, AmrZ (AlgZ). Further rounds of suppressor analysis, possible by virtue of the SPyVET strategy, revealed an additional two regulators including the activator AlgR, and allowed the regulatory connections to be determined.

Ovarian follicle development in the laying hen is accompanied by divergent changes in inhibin A, inhibin B, activin A and follistatin production in granulosa and theca layers

To study the potential involvement of inhibin A (inhA), inhibin B (inhB), activin A (actA) and follistatin (FS) in the recruitment of follicles into the preovulatory hierarchy, growing follicles (ranging from 1 mm to the largest designated F1) and the three most recent postovulatory follicles (POFs) were recovered from laying hens (n=11). With the exception of <4 mm follicles and POFs, follicle walls were dissected into separate granulosa (G) and theca (T) layers before extraction. Contents of inhA, inhB, actA and FS in tissue extracts were assayed using specific two-site ELISAs and results are expressed per mg DNA. InhB content of both G and T followed a similar developmental pattern, although the content was >4-fold higher in G than in T at all stages. InhB content was very low in follicles <4 nun but increased - 50-fold (P<0.0001) to peak in 7-9 mm follicles, before falling steadily as follicles entered and moved up the follicular hierarchy (40-fold; 8 mm vs F2). In stark contrast, inhA remained very low in prehierarchical follicles (&LE; 9 mm) but then increased progressively as follicles moved up the preovulatory hierarchy to peak in F1 (&SIM; 100-fold increase; P<0.0001); In F1 >97% of inhA was confined to the G layer whereas in 5-9 mm follicles inhA was only. detected in the T layer. Both inhA and inhB contents of POFs were significantly reduced compared with F1. Follicular actA was mainly confined to the T layer although detectable levels were present in G from 9 nun; actA was low between 1 and 9 mm but increased sharply as follicles entered the preovulatory hierarchy (&SIM;6-fold higher in F4; P<0.0001); levels then fell &SIM;2-fold as the follicle progressed to F1. Like actA, FS predominated in the T although significant amounts were also present in the G of prehierarchical follicles (4-9 mm), in contrast to actA, which was absent from the G. The FS content of T rose &SIM;3-fold from 6 mm to a plateau which was sustained until F1. In contrast, the FS content of G was greatest in prehierarchical follicles and fell &SIM;4-fold in F4-F1 follicles. ActA and FS contents of POFs were reduced compared with F1. In vitro studies on follicle wall explants confirmed the striking divergence in the secretion of inhA and inhB during follicle development. These findings of marked stage-dependent differences in the expression of inhA, inhB, actA and FS proteins imply a significant functional role for these peptides in the recruitment and ordered progression of follicles within the avian ovary.

Advanced skills teachers: professional identity and status

The teaching profession continues to struggle with defining itself in relation to other professions. Even though public opinion positions teachers second only to doctors and nurses in terms of their professional status and prestige research in the UK suggests that teachers still believe that they have much lower status than other professions. With teacher job satisfaction considerably lower today than the past and on-going issues with teacher recruitment and retention, new government policies have set out to enhance the status of teachers both within and outside of the profession. The Advanced Skill Teacher (AST) grade was introduced in 1998 as a means to recognise and reward teaching expertise and was framed as a way of also raising the status of the teaching profession. As to what a teaching professional should look like, the AST was in many ways positioned as the embodiment. Using survey data from 849 ASTs and in depth interviews with 31, this paper seeks to explores the ways that the AST designation impacts or not on teachers’ perceptions of their professional identity. In particular, the paper considers whether such awards contribute in positive ways to a teacher’s sense of professional identity and status. The results from the research suggest that teaching grades that recognise and reward teaching excellence do contribute in important ways to a teachers’ professional identity via an increased sense of recognition, reward and job satisfaction. The results from this research also suggest that recognising the skills and expertise of teachers is clearly important in supporting teacher retention. This is because as it allows highly accomplished teachers to remain where they want to be and that is the classroom.

Regularized logistic models for probabilistic forecasting and diagnostics

Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert dynamical forecast information (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts. A logistic model is obtained by setting the logarithmic odds ratio equal to a linear combination of the inputs. As with any statistical model, logistic models will suffer from overfitting if the number of inputs is comparable to the number of forecast instances. Computational approaches to avoid overfitting by regularization are discussed, and efficient techniques for model assessment and selection are presented. A logit version of the lasso (originally a linear regression technique), is discussed. In lasso models, less important inputs are identified and the corresponding coefficient is set to zero, providing an efficient and automatic model reduction procedure. For the same reason, lasso models are particularly appealing for diagnostic purposes.

Building networks to work: an ethnographic study of informal routes into the UK construction industry and pathways for migrant up-skilling

The UK construction industry labour market is characterised by high levels of self-employment, sub-contracting, informality and flexibility. A corollary of this, and a sign of the increasing globalisation of construction, has been an increasing reliance on migrant labour, particularly that from the Eastern European Accession states. Yet, little is known about how their experiences within and outside of work shape their work in the construction sector. In this context better qualitative understandings of the social and communication networks through which migrant workers gain employment, create routes through the sector and develop their role/career are needed. We draw on two examples from a short-term ethnographic study of migrant construction worker employment experiences and practices in the town of Crewe in Cheshire, UK, to demonstrate how informal networks intersect with formal elements of the sector to facilitate both recruitment and up-skilling. Such research knowledge, we argue, offers new evidence of the importance of attending to migrant worker’s own experiences in the development of more transparent recruitment processes.