Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

The effect of postnatal depression on mother-infant interaction, infant response to the still-face perturbation, and performance on an instrumental learning task

A representative community sample of primiparous depressed women and a nondepressed control group were assessed while in interaction with their infants at 2 months postpartum. At 3 months, infants were assessed on the Still-face perturbation of face to face interaction, and a subsample completed an Instrumental Learning paradigm. Compared to nondepressed women, depressed mothers' interactions were both less contingent and less affectively attuned to infant behavior. Postnatal depression did not adversely affect the infant's performance in either the Still-face perturbation or the Instrumental Learning assessment. Maternal responsiveness in interactions at 2 months predicted the infant's performance in the Instrumental Learning assessment but not in the Still-face perturbation. The implications of these findings for theories of infant cognitive and emotional development are discussed.

Chemical composition observed over the mid-Atlantic and the detection of pollution signatures far from source regions

The atmospheric composition of the central North Atlantic region has been sampled using the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) campaign, part of the wider International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). This paper presents an overview of the ITOP campaign. Between late July and early August 2004, twelve flights comprising 72 hours of measurement were made in a region from approximately 20 to 40°W and 33 to 47°N centered on Faial Island, Azores, ranging in altitude from 50 to 9000 m. The vertical profiles of O3 and CO are consistent with previous observations made in this region during 1997 and our knowledge of the seasonal cycles within the region. A cluster analysis technique is used to partition the data set into air mass types with distinct chemical signatures. Six clusters provide a suitable balance between cluster generality and specificity. The clusters are labeled as biomass burning, low level outflow, upper level outflow, moist lower troposphere, marine and upper troposphere. During this summer, boreal forest fire emissions from Alaska and northern Canada were found to provide a major perturbation of tropospheric composition in CO, PAN, organic compounds and aerosol. Anthropogenic influenced air from the continental boundary layer of the USA was clearly observed running above the marine boundary layer right across the mid-Atlantic, retaining high pollution levels in VOCs and sulfate aerosol. Upper level outflow events were found to have far lower sulfate aerosol, resulting from washout on ascent, but much higher PAN associated with the colder temperatures. Lagrangian links with flights of other aircraft over the USA and Europe show that such signatures are maintained many days downwind of emission regions. Some other features of the data set are highlighted, including the strong perturbations to many VOCs and OVOCs in this remote region.

Weak constraints in four-dimensional variational data assimilation

The formulation of four-dimensional variational data assimilation allows the incorporation of constraints into the cost function which need only be weakly satisfied. In this paper we investigate the value of imposing conservation properties as weak constraints. Using the example of the two-body problem of celestial mechanics we compare weak constraints based on conservation laws with a constraint on the background state.We show how the imposition of conservation-based weak constraints changes the nature of the gradient equation. Assimilation experiments demonstrate how this can add extra information to the assimilation process, even when the underlying numerical model is conserving.

A study of the sensitivity of ocean overturning circulation and climate to freshwater input in different regions of the North Atlantic

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system. Models indicate that the AMOC can be perturbed by freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic. Using an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, we investigate the dependence of such a perturbation of the AMOC, and the consequent climate change, on the region of freshwater forcing. A wide range of changes in AMOC strength is found after 100 years of freshwater forcing. The largest changes in AMOC strength occur when the regions of deepwater formation in the model are forced directly, although reductions in deepwater formation in one area may be compensated by enhanced formation elsewhere. North Atlantic average surface air temperatures correlate linearly with the AMOC decline, but warming may occur in localised regions, notably over Greenland and where deepwater formation is enhanced. This brings into question the representativeness of temperature changes inferred from Greenland ice-core records.

Use of an artificial root to examine the influence of 8-hydroxyquinoline on soil microbial activity and bacterial community structure

Invasive plant species have been shown to alter the microbial community composition of the soils they invade and it is suggested that this below-ground perturbation of potential pathogens, decomposers or symbionts may feedback positively to allow invasive success. Whether these perturbations are mediated through specific components of root exudation are not understood. We focussed on 8-hydroxyquinoline, a putative allelochemical of Centaurea diffusa (diffuse knapweed) and used an artificial root system to differentiate the effects of 8-hydroxyquinoline against a background of total rhizodeposition as mimicked through supply of a synthetic exudate solution. In soil proximal (0-10 cm) to the artificial root, synthetic exudates had a highly significant (P < 0.001) influence on dehydrogenase, fluorescein diacetate hydrolysis and urease activity. in addition, 8-hydroxyquinoline was significant (p = 0.003) as a main effect on dehydrogenase activity and interacted with synthetic exudates to affect urease activity (p = 0.09). Hierarchical cluster analysis of 16S rDNA-based DGGE band patterns also identified a primary affect of synthetic exudates and a secondary affect of 8-hydroxyquinoline on bacterial community structure. Thus, we show that the artificial rhizosphere produced by the synthetic exudates was the predominant effect, but, that the influence of the 8-hydroxyquinoline signal on the activity and structure of soil microbial communities could also be detected. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coriolis perturbations in the infrared spectrum of diborane

High‐resolution infrared spectra of B2H6 vapor are reported. The sample was prepared from the naturally occurring 11B☒10B isotopic mixture. The rotational structure of the infrared bands has been analysed for Coriolis perturbations due to rotation about the axis of least moment of inertia (the B⋅⋅⋅B axis). The following results have been obtained: (a) interaction between the Type A fundamental ν18 and the inactive fundamental ν5 has been observed, thus confirming the assignment of ν5 at 833 cm—1, giving ∣ ζ5,18Z ∣=0.55±0.05; (b) interaction observed between the Type A combination band (ν10+ν12) at 1283 cm—1 and the inactive combination (ν10+ν7) gives an estimate of the unobserved fundamental ν7 as 850±30 cm—1, and an estimate of ∣ ζ7,12Z ∣=0.6±0.1; (c) the absence of any observed perturbation of the Type C fundamental ν14 at 973 cm—1, suggests, by negative arguments, that either the unobserved fundamental ν9 does not lie in the frequency range 900 to 1100 cm—1, or ∣ ζ9,14Z ∣<0.2. The assignment of the unobserved fundamental vibrations of diborane is discussed in the light of this evidence.

Quantifying uncertainty in the simulation of crop-climate processes

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (λ, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966–1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of λ near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Altered expression of cell cycle proteins and prolonged duration of cardiac myocyte hyperplasia in p27KIP1 knockout mice

The precise role of cell cycle-dependent molecules in controlling the switch from cardiac myocyte hyperplasia to hypertrophy remains to be determined. We report that loss of p27(KIP1) in the mouse results in a significant increase in heart size and in the total number of cardiac myocytes. In comparison to p27(KIP1)+/+ myocytes, the percentage of neonatal p27(KIP1)-/- myocytes in S phase was increased significantly, concomitant with a significant decrease in the percentage of G(0)/G(1) cells. The expressions of proliferating cell nuclear antigen, G(1)/S and G(2)/M phase-acting cyclins, and cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) were upregulated significantly in ventricular tissue obtained from early neonatal p27(KIP1)-/- mice, concomitant with a substantial decrease in the expressions of G(1) phase-acting cyclins and CDKs. Furthermore, mRNA expressions of the embryonic genes atrial natriuretic factor and alpha-skeletal actin were detectable at significant levels in neonatal and adult p27(KIP1)-/- mouse hearts but were undetectable in p27(KIP1)+/+ hearts. In addition, loss of p27(KIP1) was not compensated for by the upregulation of other CDK inhibitors. Thus, the loss of p27(KIP1) results in prolonged proliferation of the mouse cardiac myocyte and perturbation of myocyte hypertrophy.

An assessment of aerosol‐cloud interactions in marine stratus clouds based on surface remote sensing

An assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) from ground-based remote sensing under coastal stratiform clouds is presented. The assessment utilizes a long-term, high temporal resolution data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program deployment at Pt. Reyes, California, United States, in 2005 to provide statistically robust measures of ACI and to characterize the variability of the measures based on variability in environmental conditions and observational approaches. The average ACIN (= dlnNd/dlna, the change in cloud drop number concentration with aerosol concentration) is 0.48, within a physically plausible range of 0–1.0. Values vary between 0.18 and 0.69 with dependence on (1) the assumption of constant cloud liquid water path (LWP), (2) the relative value of cloud LWP, (3) methods for retrieving Nd, (4) aerosol size distribution, (5) updraft velocity, and (6) the scale and resolution of observations. The sensitivity of the local, diurnally averaged radiative forcing to this variability in ACIN values, assuming an aerosol perturbation of 500 c-3 relative to a background concentration of 100 cm-3, ranges betwee-4 and -9 W -2. Further characterization of ACI and its variability is required to reduce uncertainties in global radiative forcing estimates.

Limit operators, collective compactness, and the spectral theory of infinite matrices

In the first half of this memoir we explore the interrelationships between the abstract theory of limit operators (see e.g. the recent monographs of Rabinovich, Roch and Silbermann (2004) and Lindner (2006)) and the concepts and results of the generalised collectively compact operator theory introduced by Chandler-Wilde and Zhang (2002). We build up to results obtained by applying this generalised collectively compact operator theory to the set of limit operators of an operator (its operator spectrum). In the second half of this memoir we study bounded linear operators on the generalised sequence space , where and is some complex Banach space. We make what seems to be a more complete study than hitherto of the connections between Fredholmness, invertibility, invertibility at infinity, and invertibility or injectivity of the set of limit operators, with some emphasis on the case when the operator is a locally compact perturbation of the identity. Especially, we obtain stronger results than previously known for the subtle limiting cases of and . Our tools in this study are the results from the first half of the memoir and an exploitation of the partial duality between and and its implications for bounded linear operators which are also continuous with respect to the weaker topology (the strict topology) introduced in the first half of the memoir. Results in this second half of the memoir include a new proof that injectivity of all limit operators (the classic Favard condition) implies invertibility for a general class of almost periodic operators, and characterisations of invertibility at infinity and Fredholmness for operators in the so-called Wiener algebra. In two final chapters our results are illustrated by and applied to concrete examples. Firstly, we study the spectra and essential spectra of discrete Schrödinger operators (both self-adjoint and non-self-adjoint), including operators with almost periodic and random potentials. In the final chapter we apply our results to integral operators on .

Equidistributing Meshes with Constraints

Adaptive methods which “equidistribute” a given positive weight function are now used fairly widely for selecting discrete meshes. The disadvantage of such schemes is that the resulting mesh may not be smoothly varying. In this paper a technique is developed for equidistributing a function subject to constraints on the ratios of adjacent steps in the mesh. Given a weight function $f \geqq 0$ on an interval $[a,b]$ and constants $c$ and $K$, the method produces a mesh with points $x_0 = a,x_{j + 1} = x_j + h_j ,j = 0,1, \cdots ,n - 1$ and $x_n = b$ such that\[ \int_{xj}^{x_{j + 1} } {f \leqq c\quad {\text{and}}\quad \frac{1} {K}} \leqq \frac{{h_{j + 1} }} {{h_j }} \leqq K\quad {\text{for}}\, j = 0,1, \cdots ,n - 1 . \] A theoretical analysis of the procedure is presented, and numerical algorithms for implementing the method are given. Examples show that the procedure is effective in practice. Other types of constraints on equidistributing meshes are also discussed. The principal application of the procedure is to the solution of boundary value problems, where the weight function is generally some error indicator, and accuracy and convergence properties may depend on the smoothness of the mesh. Other practical applications include the regrading of statistical data.

The timing of island effects in nonnative sentence processing

Using the eye-movement monitoring technique in two reading comprehension experiments, we investigated the timing of constraints on wh-dependencies (so-called ‘island’ constraints) in native and nonnative sentence processing. Our results show that both native and nonnative speakers of English are sensitive to extraction islands during processing, suggesting that memory storage limitations affect native and nonnative comprehenders in essentially the same way. Furthermore, our results show that the timing of island effects in native compared to nonnative sentence comprehension is affected differently by the type of cue (semantic fit versus filled gaps) signalling whether dependency formation is possible at a potential gap site. Whereas English native speakers showed immediate sensitivity to filled gaps but not to lack of semantic fit, proficient German-speaking learners of L2 English showed the opposite sensitivity pattern. This indicates that initial wh-dependency formation in nonnative processing is based on semantic feature-matching rather than being structurally mediated as in native comprehension.