Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

When are ant-attractant devices a worthwhile investment? Vicia faba extrafloral nectaries and Lasius niger ants

Most studies aiming to determine the beneficial effect of ants on plants simply consider the effects of the presence or exclusion of ants on plant yield. This approach is often inadequate, however, as ants interact with both non-tended herbivores and tended Homoptera. Moreover, the interaction with these groups of organisms is dependent on ant density, and these functional relationships are likely to be non-linear. A model is presented here that segregates plant herbivores into two categories depending on the sign of their numerical response to ants (myrmecophiles increase with ants, non-tended herbivores decline). The changes in these two components of herbivores with increasing ant density and the resulting implications for ant-plant mutualisms are considered. It emerges that a wide range of ant densities needs to be considered as the interaction sign (mutualism or parasitism) and strength is likely to change with ant density. The model is used to interpret the results of an experimental study that varied levels of Aphis fabae infestation and Lasius niger ant attendance on Vicia faba bean plants. Increasing ant density consistently reduced plant fitness and thus, in this location, the interaction between the ants and the plant can be considered parasitic. In the Vicia faba system, these costs of ants are unlikely to be offset by other beneficial agents (e.g., parasitoids), which also visit extrafloral nectaries.

Detecting non-multiplicative genotype relative risks from transmissions of parental alleles to affected children

The differential transmission of alleles from parents to affected children indicates that the locus under investigation is either directly involved in the occurrence of the disease or that there are allelic associations with other loci that are directly involved. Conditional logistic regression applied to a diallelic locus leads to a test with two degrees of freedom. The power of a single degree of freedom test to detect non-multiplicative allelic effects is discussed here.

Parents' cognitions and expectations about their pre-school children: the contribution of parental anxiety and child anxiety

This study investigated the relative associations between parent and child anxiety and parents' cognitions about their children. One hundred and four parents of children aged 3-5 years completed questionnaires regarding their own anxiety level, their child's anxiety level and their cognitions about the child, specifically parents' expectations about child distress and avoidance, and parents' perceived control over child mood and behaviour. Both parent anxiety and parent report of child anxiety were significantly associated with parents' cognitions. Specifically, parent report of child anxiety correlated significantly with parent locus of control generally and, more specifically, with parental expectations and perceived control of child anxious mood and behaviour. Parent anxiety correlated significantly with locus of control and parents' expectations of child anxious mood and behaviour. Furthermore, when both child and parent anxiety were taken into account, only parental anxiety remained significantly associated with parental locus of control and perceived control of child anxious behaviour. For parents' perceived control of child anxious mood, only child anxiety remained significantly associated. The results suggest that parents' perceived control over their children's behaviour may primarily reflect parental anxiety, rather than child anxiety. Parental anxiety may, therefore, present an important target for interventions that aim to change parent's cognitions and behaviour.

Conversations around homework: links to parental mental health, family characteristics and child psychological functioning

Parents are increasingly expected to supplement their children's school-based learning by providing support for children's homework. However, parents' capacities to provide such support may vary and may be limited by the experience of depression. This may have implications for child development. In the course of a prospective, longitudinal study of children of postnatally depressed and healthy mothers, we observed mothers (N = 88) and fathers (N = 78) at home during maths homework interactions with their 8-year-old children. The quality of parental communication was rated and analysed in relation to child functioning. The quality of communication of each of the parents was related to their mental state, social class and IQ. While postnatal depression was not directly related to child development, there was some evidence of the influence of maternal depression occurring in the child's school years. Different aspects of parental communication with the child showed specific associations with different child outcomes, over and above the influence of family characteristics. In particular, child school attainment and IQ were associated with parental strategies to encourage representational thinking and mastery motivation, whereas child behavioural adjustment at school and self-esteem were linked to the degree of parental emotional support and low levels of coercion. Notably, the influence of maternal homework support was more strongly related to child outcome than was paternal support, a pattern reflected in mothers' greater involvement in children's schools and school-related activities. Some parents may need guidance in how to support their children's homework if it is to be of benefit to child functioning.

Discrepancy between parental reports of infants' receptive vocabulary and infants' behaviour in a preferential looking task

Two experiments are described which explore the relationship between parental reports of infants' receptive vocabularies at 1; 6 (Experiment 1a) or 1-3, 1;6 and 1;9 (Experiment 1b) and the comprehension infants demonstrated in a preferential looking task. The instrument used was the Oxford CD1, a British English adaptation of the MacArthur-Bates CD1 (Words & Gestures). Infants were shown pairs of images of familiar objects, either both name-known or both name-unknown according to their parent's responses on the CD1. At all ages, and on both name-known and name-unknown trials, preference for the target image increased significantly from baseline when infants heard the target's label. This discrepancy suggests that parental report underestimates infants' word knowledge.

The effects of maternal depression and parental conflict on children's peer play

Background Little is known about the relative effects of exposure to postnatal depression and parental conflict on the social functioning of school-aged children. This is, in part, because of a lack of specificity in the measurement of child and parental behaviour and a reliance on children's reports of their hypothetical responses to conflict in play. Methods In the course of a prospective longitudinal study of children of postnatally depressed and well women, 5-year-old children were videotaped at home with a friend in a naturalistic dressing-up play setting. As well as examining possible associations between the occurrence of postnatal depression and the quality of the children's interactions, we investigated the influence of parental conflict and co-operation, and the continuity of maternal depression. The quality of the current mother-child relationship was considered as a possible mediating factor. Results Exposure to postnatal depression was associated with increased likelihood, among boys, of displaying physical aggression in play with their friend. However, parental conflict mediated the effects of postnatal depression on active aggression during play, and was also associated with displays of autonomy and intense conflict. While there were no gender effects in terms of the degree or intensity of aggressive behaviours, girls were more likely to express aggression verbally using denigration and gloating whereas boys were more likely to display physical aggression via interpersonal and object struggles. Conclusions The study provided evidence for the specificity of effects, with strong links between parental and child peer conflict. These effects appear to arise from direct exposure to parental conflict, rather than indirectly, through mother-child interactions.

'They did not have a word': the parental quest to locate a 'true sex' for their intersex children

Given the paucity of research in this area, the primary aim of this study was to explore how parents of infants with unclear sex at birth made sense of 'intersex'. Qualitative methods were, used (semi-structured interviews, interpretative phenomenological analysis) with 10 parents to generate pertinent themes and provide ideas for further research. Our analysis highlights the fundamental shock engendered by the uncertain sex status of children, and documents parental struggles to negotiate a coherent sex identity for their children. Findings are discussed in light of the rigid two-sex system which pervades medicine and everyday life, and we argue that greater understanding of the complexity of sex and gender is required in order to facilitate better service provision and, ultimately, greater informed consent and parental participation regarding decisions about their children's status.

Direct investment in real estate

Momentum strategies have the potential to generate extra profits in private real estate markets. Tests of a variety of frequencies of portfolio reweighting identify periods of winner and loser performance. There are strong potential gains from momentum strategies that are based on prior returns over a 6- to 12-month period. Whether these gains are attainable for real-world investors depends on transaction costs, but some momentum strategies do produce net excess returns. The findings hold even if returns are unsmoothed to reflect underlying market prices.