DMP XV palaeohydrology and palaeoenvironment: initial results and report of 2010 and 2011 fieldwork

This paper reports the results of fieldwork conducted in the 2010 and 2011 DMP field seasons and of analysis of samples collected during these and previous years. Research has involved 1) studying palaeolake sediment outcrops, 2) using ground penetrating radar (GPR) to determine their extent under the Dahān Ubārī, and 3) coring palaeolakes in order to determine their palaeoenvironmental records. Research on these samples is continuing but some initial findings are discussed in this paper. The most extensive palaeolake sediments are found within the al-Mahruqah Formation and were deposited by a giant lake system that developed in the Fazzān Basin during past humid periods. Stratigraphic analysis of Lake Megafazzān sediments suggests two different sedimentary successions, a lake margin succession distinctive for its lacustrine and palaeosol carbonates, and a clastic-dominated, intensely rootleted, basin-centre succession which has terrestrial intervals (aeolian and palaeosols) as well as in the upper parts lacustrine limestones. Both basin margin and basin centre successions are underlain by fluvial deposits. Magnetostratigraphy suggests that the formation may be as old as the mid-Pliocene. After the Lake Megafazzān phase, smaller palaeolakes developed within the basin during subsequent humid periods. One of the largest is found in the Wādī al-Hayāt in the area between Jarma and Ubārī. Similar deposits further west along the Wādī at progressively higher altitudes are interpreted as small lakes and marshes fed by springs issuing from aquifers at the base of the escarpment, last replenished during the Holocene humid phase. Dating of sediments suggests that this was between c. 11 and c. 8 ka. The Wādī ash-Shāţī palaeolake core also provides a Holocene palaeoclimate record that paints a slightly different picture, indicating lake conditions until around 7 ka, whereupon it started oscillating until around 5.5 ka when sedimentation terminates. The reasons for the differences in these records are discussed.

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill.

Theory and observations of ice particle evolution in cirrus using Doppler radar: evidence for aggregation

Vertically pointing Doppler radar has been used to study the evolution of ice particles as they sediment through a cirrus cloud. The measured Doppler fall speeds, together with radar-derived estimates for the altitude of cloud top, are used to estimate a characteristic fall time tc for the `average' ice particle. The change in radar reflectivity Z is studied as a function of tc, and is found to increase exponentially with fall time. We use the idea of dynamically scaling particle size distributions to show that this behaviour implies exponential growth of the average particle size, and argue that this exponential growth is a signature of ice crystal aggregation.

Langmuir turbulence and deeply penetrating jets in an unstratified mixed layer

The influence of surface waves and an applied wind stress is studied in an ensemble of large eddy simulations to investigate the nature of deeply penetrating jets into an unstratified mixed layer. The influence of a steady monochromatic surface wave propagating parallel to the wind direction is parameterized using the wave-filtered Craik-Leibovich equations. Tracer trajectories and instantaneous downwelling velocities reveal classic counterrotating Langmuir rolls. The associated downwelling jets penetrate to depths in excess of the wave's Stokes depth scale, δs. Qualitative evidence suggests the depth of the jets is controlled by the Ekman depth scale. Analysis of turbulent kinetic energy (tke) budgets reveals a dynamical distinction between Langmuir turbulence and shear-driven turbulence. In the former, tke production is dominated by Stokes shear and a vertical flux term transports tke to a depth where it is dissipated. In the latter, tke production is from the mean shear and is locally balanced by dissipation. We define the turbulent Langmuir number Lat = (v*/Us)0.5 (v* is the ocean's friction velocity and Us is the surface Stokes drift velocity) and a turbulent anisotropy coefficient Rt = /( + ). The transition between shear-driven and Langmuir turbulence is investigated by varying external wave parameters δs and Lat and by diagnosing Rt and the Eulerian mean and Stokes shears. When either Lat or δs are sufficiently small the Stokes shear dominates the mean shear and the flow is preconditioned to Langmuir turbulence and the associated deeply penetrating jets.