The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the sun into Maunder Minimum conditions

The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R^2_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential phi for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and phi, R^2_L (t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t = 4 and 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number R_Z is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean R_G are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.

Optimisation of the extraction and processing conditions of chamomile (Matricaria chamomilla L.) for incorporation into a beverage

The total phenols, apigenin 7-glucoside, turbidity and colour of extracts from dried chamomile flowers were studied with a view to develop chamomile extracts with potential anti-inflammatory properties for incorporation into beverages. The extraction of all constituents followed pseudo first-order kinetics. In general, the rate constant (k) increased as the temperature increased from 57 to 100 °C. The turbidity only increased significantly between 90 and 100 °C. Therefore, aqueous chamomile extracts had maximum total phenol concentration and minimum turbidity when extracted at 90 °C for 20 min. The effect of drying conditions on chamomile extracted using these conditions was determined. A significant reduction in phenol concentration, from 19.7 ± 0.5 mg/g GAE in fresh chamomile to 13 ± 1 mg/g GAE, was found only in the plant material oven-dried at 80 °C (p ⩽ 0.05). The biggest colour change was between fresh chamomile and that oven-dried at 80 °C, followed by samples air-dried. There was no significant difference in colour of material freeze-dried and oven-dried at 40 °C.

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

Contemporary social variations in household water use, management strategies and awareness under conditions of 'water stress': the case of Greater Amman Jordan

One of the distinctive characteristics of the water supply system of Greater Amman, the capital of Jordan, is that it has been based on a regime of rationing since 1987, with households receiving water once a week for various durations. This reflects the fact that while Amman's recent growth has been phenomenal, Jordan is one of the ten most water-scarce nations on earth. Amman is highly polarised socio-economically, and by means of household surveys conducted in both high- and low-income divisions of the city, the aim has been to provide detailed empirical evidence concerning the storage and use if water, the strategies used by households to manage water and overall satisfactions with water supply issues, looking specifically at issues of social equity. The analysis demonstrates the social costs of water rationing and consequent household management to be high, as well as emphasising that issues of water quality are of central importance to all consumers.

Splanchnic metabolism of nitrogenous compounds and urinary nitrogen excretion in steers fed alfalfa under conditions of increased absorption of ammonia and L-arginine supply across the portal-drained viscera

Effects of increased ammonia and/or arginine absorption across the portal-drained viscera (PDV) on net splanchnic (PDV and liver) metabolism of nitrogenous compounds and urinary N excretion were investigated in six cathetenzed Hereford x Angus steers (501 +/- 1 kg BW) fed a 75% alfalfa:25% (as-fed basis) corn-soybean meal diet (0.523 MJ of ME/[kg BW0.15.d]) every 2 h without (27.0 g of N/kg of dietary DM) and with 20 g of urea/kg of dietary DM (35.7 g of N/kg of dietary DM) in a split-plot design. Net splanchnic flux measurements were obtained immediately before beginning and ending a 72-h mesenteric vein infusion of L-arginine (15 mmol/h). For 3 d before and during arginine infusion, daily urine voided was measured and analyzed for N composition. Feeding urea increased PDV absorption (P < 0.01) and hepatic removal (P < 0.01) of ammonia N, accounting for 80% of increased hepatic urea N output (P < 0.01). Numerical increases in net hepatic removal of AA N could account for the remaining portion of increased hepatic urea N output. Arginine infusion increased hepatic arginine removal (P < 0.01) and hepatic urea N output (P < 0.03) and switched hepatic ornithine flux from net uptake to net output (P < 0.01), but numerical changes in net hepatic removal of ammonia and AA N could not account fully for the increase in hepatic urea N output. Increases in urine N excretion equaled quantities of N fed as urea or infused as arginine. Estimated salivary urea N excretion was not changed by either treatment. Urea cycle regulation occurs via a complex interaction of mechanisms and requires N sources other than ammonia, but the effect of increased ammonia absorption on hepatic catabolism of individual AA in the present study was not significant.

Splanchnic metabolism of nutrients and hormones in steers fed alfalfa under conditions of increased absorption of ammonia and L-arginine supply across the portal-drained viscera

Effects of increased ammonia and/or arginine absorption on net splanchnic (portal-drained viscera [PDV] plus liver) metabolism of nonnitrogenous nutrients and hormones in cattle were examined. Six Hereford x Angus steers (501 +/- 1 kg BW) prepared with vascular catheters for measurements of net flux across the splanchnic bed were fed a 75% alfalfa:25% (as-fed basis) corn and soybean meal diet (0.523 MJ of ME/[kg BW(0.75.)d]) every 2 h without (27.0 g of N/kg of DM) and. with 20 g of urea/kg of DM (35.7 g of N/kg of DM) in a split-plot design. Net flux measurements were made immediately before and after a 72-h mesenteric vein infusion Of L-arginine (15 mmol/h). There were no treatment effects on PDV or hepatic 02 consumption. Dietary urea had no effect on splanchnic metabolism of glucose or L-lactate, but arginine infusion decreased net hepatic removal Of L-lactate when urea was fed (P < 0.01). Net PDV appearance of n-butyrate was increased by arginine infusion (P < 0.07), and both dietary urea (P < 0.09) and arginine infusion (P < 0.05) increased net hepatic removal of n-butyrate. Dietary urea also increased total splanchnic acetate output (P < 0.06), tended to increase arterial glucagon concentration (P < 0.11), and decreased arterial ST concentration (P < 0.03). Arginine infusion increased arterial concentration (P < 0.07) and net PDV release (P < 0.10) and tended to increase hepatic removal (P < 0.11) of insulin, as well as arterial concentration (P < 0.01) and total splanchnic output (P < 0.01) of glucagon. Despite changes in splanchnic N metabolism, increased ammonia and arginine absorption had little measurable effect on splanchnic metabolism of glucose and other nonnitrogenous components of splanchnic energy metabolism.

Comparison of survival rates of captive-reared and wild-bred Mauritius kestrels (Falco punctatus) in a re-introduced population

Re-introduction is a technique widely used in the conservation of threatened bird species. With advances in aviculture the use of captive-produced individuals as the release stock is becoming more commonplace, and ideally, survival of captive-produced, released individuals should be no different from their wild-bred counterparts. During the late 1980s the Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) was successfully re-introduced into the Bambous mountain range, Mauritius, some 30 years after its local extinction. Between 1987 and 2001 the developing population was closely monitored enabling us to construct re-sighting histories for 88 released and 284 wild-bred kestrels. We used age-structured models in the survival analysis software program MARK to determine if an individual's origin influenced its subsequent survival. Our analysis indicated no compelling evidence for reduced survival among juvenile captive-reared and released individuals, relative to their wild-bred counterparts, across the majority of cohorts and only limited evidence of a cohort-specific effect. This study illustrates that despite the lack of a formal experimental approach it is still feasible to conduct an assessment of re-introduction outcomes and techniques.

Comparison of survival rates of captive-reared and wild-bred Mauritius kestrels (falco punctatus) in a re-introduced population

Re-introduction is a technique widely used in the conservation of threatened bird species. With advances in aviculture the use of captive-produced individuals as the release stock is becoming more commonplace, and ideally, survival of captive-produced, released individuals should be no different from their wild-bred counterparts. During the late 1980s the Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) was successfully re-introduced into the Bambous mountain range, Mauritius, some 30 years after its local extinction. Between 1987 and 2001 the developing population was closely monitored enabling us to construct re-sighting histories for 88 released and 284 wild-bred kestrels. We used age-structured models in the survival analysis software program MARK to determine if an individual's origin influenced its subsequent survival. Our analysis indicated no compelling evidence for reduced survival among juvenile captive-reared and released individuals, relative to their wild-bred counterparts, across the majority of cohorts and only limited evidence of a cohort-specific effect. This study illustrates that despite the lack of a formal experimental approach it is still feasible to conduct an assessment of re-introduction outcomes and techniques. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The engineer under FDIC's conditions of contract for construction

FIDIC has over the years produced standard forms of contracts for the international procurement of projects. A source of continuing criticism of its Red Book concerns the duality in the traditional role of the engineer as the employer's agent and as an independent third party holding the balance fairly between the employer and the contractor. In response to this and other criticisms FIDIC produced a replacement for it in 1999. The role of the engineer under the new Red Book is critically examined in the light of relevant case law, expert commentaries and feedback from two multidisciplinary workshops with international participation. The examination identified three major changes: (1) a duty to act impartially has been replaced by a duty to make fair determination of certain matters; (2) it is open to parties to allow greater control of the engineer by the employer by stating in the appropriate part of the contract powers the engineer must not exercise without the employer's approval; (3) there is provision for a Dispute Adjudication Board (DAB) to which disputes may be referred. Although the duality has not been eliminated completely, the contract is structured flexibly enough to support those who wish to contract on the basis of the engineer acting solely as the agent of the employer.

Predictions of some product parameters based on the processing conditions of ultra-high-temperature milk plants

The temperature-time profiles of 22 Australian industrial ultra-high-temperature (UHT) plants and 3 pilot plants, using both indirect and direct heating, were surveyed. From these data, the operating parameters of each plant, the chemical index C*, the bacteriological index B* and the predicted changes in the levels of beta-lactoglobulin, alpha-lactalbumin, lactulose, furosine and browning were determined using a simulation program based on published formulae and reaction kinetics data. There was a wide spread of heating conditions used, some of which resulted in a large margin of bacteriological safety and high chemical indices. However, no conditions were severe enough to cause browning during processing. The data showed a clear distinction between the indirect and direct heating plants. They also indicated that degree of denaturation of alpha-lactalbumin varied over a wide range and may be a useful discriminatory index of heat treatment. Application of the program to pilot plants illustrated its value in determining processing conditions in these plants to simulate the conditions in industrial UHT plants. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.