Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

Effects of presenting the baseline risk when communicating absolute and relative risk reductions

This study compares relative and absolute forms of presenting risk information about influenza and the need for vaccination. It investigates whether differences in people's risk estimates and their evaluations of risk information, as a result of the different presentation formats, are still apparent when they are provided with information about the baseline level of risk. The results showed that, in the absence of baseline information, the relative risk format resulted in higher ratings of satisfaction, perceived effectiveness of vaccination, and likelihood of being vaccinated. However, these differences were not apparent when baseline information was presented. Overall, provision of baseline information resulted in more accurate risk estimates and more positive evaluations of the risk messages. It is recommended that, in order to facilitate shared and fully informed decision making, information about baseline level of risk should be included in all health communications specifying risk reductions, irrespective of the particular format adopted.

Genetic predisposition influences plasma lipids of participants on habitual diet, but not the response to reductions in dietary intake of saturated fatty acids

Objective: SNPs identified from genome wide association studies associate with lipid risk markers of cardiovascular disease. This study investigated whether these SNPs altered the plasma lipid response to diet in the ‘RISCK’ study cohort. Methods: Participants (n = 490) from a dietary intervention to lower saturated fat by replacement with carbohydrate or monounsaturated fat, were genotyped for 39 lipid-associated SNPs. The association of each individual SNP, and of the SNPs combined (using genetic predisposition scores), with plasma lipid concentrations was assessed at baseline, and on change in response to 24 weeks on diets. Results: The associations between SNPs and lipid concentrations were directionally consistent with previous findings. The genetic predisposition scores were associated with higher baseline concentrations of plasma total(P = 0.02) and LDL (P = 0.002) cholesterol, triglycerides (P = 0.001) and apolipoprotein B (P = 0.004), and with lower baseline concentrations of HDL cholesterol (P < 0.001) and apolipoprotein A-I (P < 0.001). None of the SNPs showed significant association with the reduction of plasma lipids in response to the dietary interventions and there was no evidence of diet-gene interactions. Conclusion: Results from this exploratory study have shown that increased genetic predisposition was associated with an unfavourable plasma lipid profile at baseline, but did not influence the improvement in lipid profiles by the low-saturated-fat diets.

Comparative genomics of Brachyspira pilosicoli strains: genome rearrangements, reductions and correlation of genetic compliment with phenotypic diversity.

Background. The anaerobic spirochaete Brachyspira pilosicoli causes enteric disease in avian, porcine and human hosts, amongst others. To date, the only available genome sequence of B. pilosicoli is that of strain 95/1000, a porcine isolate. In the first intra-species genome comparison within the Brachyspira genus, we report the whole genome sequence of B. pilosicoli B2904, an avian isolate, the incomplete genome sequence of B. pilosicoli WesB, a human isolate, and the comparisons with B. pilosicoli 95/1000. We also draw on incomplete genome sequences from three other Brachyspira species. Finally we report the first application of the high-throughput Biolog phenotype screening tool on the B. pilosicoli strains for detailed comparisons between genotype and phenotype. Results. Feature and sequence genome comparisons revealed a high degree of similarity between the three B. pilosicoli strains, although the genomes of B2904 and WesB were larger than that of 95/1000 (~2,765, 2.890 and 2.596 Mb, respectively). Genome rearrangements were observed which correlated largely with the positions of mobile genetic elements. Through comparison of the B2904 and WesB genomes with the 95/1000 genome, features that we propose are non-essential due to their absence from 95/1000 include a peptidase, glycine reductase complex components and transposases. Novel bacteriophages were detected in the newly-sequenced genomes, which appeared to have involvement in intra- and inter-species horizontal gene transfer. Phenotypic differences predicted from genome analysis, such as the lack of genes for glucuronate catabolism in 95/1000, were confirmed by phenotyping. Conclusions. The availability of multiple B. pilosicoli genome sequences has allowed us to demonstrate the substantial genomic variation that exists between these strains, and provides an insight into genetic events that are shaping the species. In addition, phenotype screening allowed determination of how genotypic differences translated to phenotype. Further application of such comparisons will improve understanding of the metabolic capabilities of Brachyspira species.

A multimodel assessment of the influence of regional anthropogenic emission reductions on aerosol direct radiative forcing and the role of intercontinental transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean ± one standard deviation) is  ±3.5 ±0.8,  ±4.0 ±1.7, and 29.5 ±18.1mWm ±2 per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 ±5% to 31 ±9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 ±9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 ±18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Long-latency reductions in gamma power predict hemodynamic changes that underlie the negative BOLD signal

Studiesthat use prolonged periods of sensory stimulation report associations between regional reductions in neural activity and negative blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signaling. However, the neural generators of the negative BOLD response remain to be characterized. Here, we use single-impulse electrical stimulation of the whisker pad in the anesthetized rat to identify components of the neural response that are related to “negative” hemodynamic changes in the brain. Laminar multiunit activity and local field potential recordings of neural activity were performed concurrently withtwo-dimensional optical imaging spectroscopy measuring hemodynamic changes. Repeated measurements over multiple stimulation trials revealed significant variations in neural responses across session and animal datasets. Within this variation, we found robust long-latency decreases (300 and 2000 ms after stimulus presentation) in gammaband power (30 – 80 Hz) in the middle-superficial cortical layers in regions surrounding the activated whisker barrel cortex. This reduction in gamma frequency activity was associated with corresponding decreases in the hemodynamic responses that drive the negative BOLD signal. These findings suggest a close relationship between BOLD responses and neural events that operate over time scales that outlast the initiating sensory stimulus, and provide important insights into the neurophysiological basis of negative neuroimaging signals.

Isolating the signal of ocean global warming

Identifying the signature of global warming in the world's oceans is challenging because low frequency circulation changes can dominate local temperature changes. The IPCC fourth assessment reported an average ocean heating rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 Wm−2 over the period 1961–2003, with considerable spatial, interannual and inter-decadal variability. We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of the underlying warming. Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14°C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm−2 on average) than previous results. This new measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources of error in the ocean observing system. Our new analysis provides a useful addition for evaluation of coupled climate models, to the traditional fixed depth analyses.

Controlling nitrate pollution: an integrated approach

The introduction of the EU Water Framework Directive requires policy to address non-point source pollution as part of an overall integrated strategy to improve the ecological status of water bodies. In this paper, we combine an economic optimisation framework with a dynamic simulation model of N transport in the Kennet Catchment to link decisions taken at the farm level to reductions in nitrate concentrations in the River Kennet. We examine a variety of policies targeted at reducing fertiliser use and changing the way in which farm land is used. We find that a tax on nitrogen emerges as the best policy both in terms of cost- and environmental effectiveness. Such a policy involves a considerable reduction in fertiliser use, as well as, a restructuring of land-use away from arable towards increased use of set-aside. Budgetary implications of such a radical move towards set-aside would be huge and hence unlikely to be politically palatable given the objective of reducing the EU budgetary allocation to agriculture. Additionally, the current rise in world demand for food may also mitigate calls for increasing the proportion of land taken out of agricultural production. Although the study succeeds in establishing a link between actions on the farm and nitrate concentrations in the stream water, further work is required to explore the effect of the retention of nitrates in the unsaturated zone and groundwater on this link.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions

Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organisations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organisations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements - especially reductions in uncertainty - in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. Our findings have implications for managing adaptation to a changing climate. Because the costs of adaptation are very large, and greater uncertainty about future climate is likely to be associated with more expensive adaptation, reducing uncertainty in climate predictions is potentially of enormous economic value. We highlight the need for much more work to compare: a) the cost of various degrees of adaptation, given current levels of uncertainty; and b) the cost of new investments in climate science to reduce current levels of uncertainty. Our study also highlights the importance of targeting climate science investments on the most promising opportunities to reduce prediction uncertainty.

A study of the sensitivity of ocean overturning circulation and climate to freshwater input in different regions of the North Atlantic

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system. Models indicate that the AMOC can be perturbed by freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic. Using an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, we investigate the dependence of such a perturbation of the AMOC, and the consequent climate change, on the region of freshwater forcing. A wide range of changes in AMOC strength is found after 100 years of freshwater forcing. The largest changes in AMOC strength occur when the regions of deepwater formation in the model are forced directly, although reductions in deepwater formation in one area may be compensated by enhanced formation elsewhere. North Atlantic average surface air temperatures correlate linearly with the AMOC decline, but warming may occur in localised regions, notably over Greenland and where deepwater formation is enhanced. This brings into question the representativeness of temperature changes inferred from Greenland ice-core records.

Reduction of arsenic uptake by lettuce with ferrous sulfate applied to contaminated soil

Soil contamination by arsenic (As) presents a hazard in many countries and there is a need for techniques to minimize As uptake by plants. A proposed in situ remediation method was tested by growing lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. cv. Kermit) in a greenhouse pot experiment on soil that contained 577 mg As kg(-1), taken from a former As smelter site. All combinations of iron (Fe) oxides, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.22, 0.54, and 1.09% (w/w), and lime, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.27, 0.68, and 1.36% (w/w), were tested in a factorial design. To create the treatments, field-moist soil, commercial-grade FeSO4, and ground agricultural lime were mixed and stored for one week, allowing Fe oxides to precipitate. Iron oxides gave highly significant (P < 0.001) reductions in lettuce As concentrations, down to 11% of the lettuce As concentration for untreated soil. For the Fe oxides and lime treatment combinations where soil pH was maintained nearly constant, the lettuce As concentration declined in an exponential relationship with increasing FeSO4 application rate and lettuce yield was almost unchanged. Iron oxides applied at a concentration of 1.09% did not give significantly lower lettuce As concentrations than the 0.54% treatment. Simultaneous addition of lime with FeSO4 was essential. Ferrous sulfate with insufficient lime lowered soil pH and caused mobilization of Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn. At the highest Fe oxide to lime ratios, Mn toxicity caused severe yield loss.

Displacement of Zn through acidic light-textured soils

In order to gain understanding of the movement of pollutant metals in soil. the chemical mechanisms involved in the transport of zinc were studied. The displacement of zinc through mixtures of sand and cation exchange resin was measured to validate the methods used for soil. With cation exchange capacities of 2.5 and 5.0 cmol(c) kg(-1). 5.6 and 8.4 pore volumes of 10 mM CaCl2, respectively, were required to displace a pulse of ZnCl2. A simple Burns-type model (Wineglass) using an adsorption coefficient (K-d) determined by fitting a straight line relationship to an adsorption isotherm gave a good fit to the data (K-d=0.73 and 1.29 ml g(-1), respectively). Surface and subsurface samples of an acidic sandy loam (organic matter 4.7 and 1.0%. cation exchange capacity (CEC) 11.8 and 6.1 cmol(c) kg(-1) respectively) were leached with 10 mM calcium chloride. nitrate and perchlorate. With chloride. the zinc pulse was displaced after 25 and 5 pore volumes, respectively. The Kd values were 6.1 and 2.0 ml g(-1). but are based on linear relationships fitted to isotherms which are both curved and show hysteresis. Thus. a simple model has limited value although it does give a general indication of rate of displacement. Leaching with chloride and perchlorate gave similar displacement and Kd values, but slower movement occurred with nitrate in both soil samples (35 and 7 pore volumes, respectively) which reflected higher Kd values when the isotherms were measured using this anion (7.7 and 2.8 ml g(-1) respectively). Although pH values were a little hi-her with nitrate in the leachates, the differences were insufficient to suggest that this increased the CEC enough to cause the delay. No increases in pH occurred with nitrate in the isotherm experiments. Geochem was used to calculate the proportions of Zn complexed with the three anions and with fulvic acid determined from measurements of dissolved organic matter. In all cases, more than 91% of the Zn was present as Zn2+ and there were only minor differences between the anions. Thus, there is an unexplained factor associated with the greater adsorption of Zn in the presence of nitrate. Because as little as five pore volumes of solution displaced Zn through the subsurface soil, contamination of ground waters may be a hazard where Zn is entering a light-textured soil, particularly where soil salinity is increased. Reductions in organic matter content due to cultivation will increase the hazard. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating uncertainty in terrestrial critical loads and their exceedances at four sites in the UK

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe and elsewhere. They are assessed by several elaborate and ingenious models, each of which requires many parameters, and have to be applied on a spatially-distributed basis. Often the values of the input parameters are poorly known, calling into question the validity of the calculated critical loads. This paper attempts to quantify the uncertainty in the critical loads due to this "parameter uncertainty", using examples from the UK. Models used for calculating critical loads for deposition of acidity and nitrogen in forest and heathland ecosystems were tested at four contrasting sites. Uncertainty was assessed by Monte Carlo methods. Each input parameter or variable was assigned a value, range and distribution in an objective a fashion as possible. Each model was run 5000 times at each site using parameters sampled from these input distributions. Output distributions of various critical load parameters were calculated. The results were surprising. Confidence limits of the calculated critical loads were typically considerably narrower than those of most of the input parameters. This may be due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism. The range of possible critical load values at a given site is however rather wide, and the tails of the distributions are typically long. The deposition reductions required for a high level of confidence that the critical load is not exceeded are thus likely to be large. The implication for pollutant regulation is that requiring a high probability of non-exceedance is likely to carry high costs. The relative contribution of the input variables to critical load uncertainty varied from site to site: any input variable could be important, and thus it was not possible to identify variables as likely targets for research into narrowing uncertainties. Sites where a number of good measurements of input parameters were available had lower uncertainties, so use of in situ measurement could be a valuable way of reducing critical load uncertainty at particularly valuable or disputed sites. From a restricted number of samples, uncertainties in heathland critical loads appear comparable to those of coniferous forest, and nutrient nitrogen critical loads to those of acidity. It was important to include correlations between input variables in the Monte Carlo analysis, but choice of statistical distribution type was of lesser importance. Overall, the analysis provided objective support for the continued use of critical loads in policy development. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eutrophication control in river-systems: an application of INCA-P to the River Lugg

The Integrated Catchments model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P) was applied to the River Lugg to determine the key factors controlling delivery of phosphorus to the main channel and to quantify the relative contribution of diffuse and point sources to the in-stream phosphorus (P) load under varying hydrological conditions. The model is able to simulate the seasonal variations and inter-annual variations in the in-stream total-phosphorus concentrations. However, difficulties in simulating diffuse inputs arise due to equifinality in the model structure and parameters. The River Lugg is split into upper and lower reaches. The upper reaches are dominated by grassland and woodland, so the patterns in the stream-water total-phosphorus concentrations are typical of diffuse source inputs; application of the model leads to estimates of the relative contribution to the in-stream P load from diffuse and point sources as 9:1. In the lower reaches, which are more intensively cultivated and urbanised, the stream-water total-phosphorus concentration dynamics are influenced more by point-sources; the simulated relative diffuse/point contribution to the in-stream P load is 1: 1. The model set-up and simulations are used to identify the key source-areas of P in the catchment, the P contribution of the Lugg to the River Wye during years with contrasting precipitation inputs, and the uptake and release of P from within-reach sediment. In addition, model scenarios are run to identify the impacts of likely P reductions at sewage treatment works on the in-stream soluble-reactive P concentrations and the suitability of this as a management option is assessed for reducing eutrophication.