Emergence of Chenopodium album and Stellaria media of different origins under different climatic conditions

The emergence behaviour of weed species in relation to cultural and meteorological events was studied. Dissimilarities between populations in dormancy and germination ecology, between-year maturation conditions and seed quality and burial site climate all contribute to potentially unpredictable variability. Therefore, a weed emergence data set was produced for weed seeds of Stellaria media and Chenopodium album matured and collected from three populations (Italy, Sweden and UK). The seeds were collected in two consecutive seasons (1999 and 2000) and subsequently buried in the autumn of the same year of maturation in eight contrasting climatic locations throughout Europe and the USA. The experiment sought to explore and explain differences between the three populations in their emergence behaviour. Evidence was demonstrated of synchrony in the timing of the emergence of different populations of a species at a given burial site. The relative magnitudes of emergence from the three populations at a given burial site in a given year were generally similar across all the burial sites in the study. The resulting data set was also used to construct a simple weed emergence model, which was tested for its application to the range of different burial environments and populations. The study demonstrated the possibility of using a simple thermal time-based model to describe part of the emergence behaviour across different burial sites, seed populations and seasons, and a simple winter chilling relationship to adjust for the magnitude of the flush of emergence at a given burial site. This study demonstrates the possibility of developing robust generic models for simple predictions of emergence timing across populations.

A nipple shield delivery system for oral drug delivery to breastfeeding infants : Microbicide delivery to inactivate HIV

A new drug delivery method for infants is presented which incorporates an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API)-loaded insert into a nipple shield delivery system (NSDS). The API is released directly into milk during breastfeeding. This study investigates the feasibility of using the NSDS to deliver the microbicide sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), with the goal of preventing mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV during breastfeeding in low-resource settings, when there is no safer alternative for the infant but to breastfeed. SDS has been previously shown to effectively inactivate HIV in human milk. An apparatus was developed to simulate milk flow through and drug release from a NSDS. Using this apparatus milk was pulsed through a prototype device containing a non-woven fiber insert impregnated with SDS and the microbicide was rapidly released. The total SDS release from inserts ranged from 70 to 100% of the average 0.07 g load within 50 ml (the volume of a typical breastfeed). Human milk spiked with H9/HIVIIIB cells was also passed through the same set-up. Greater than 99% reduction of cell-associated HIV infectivity was achieved in the first 10 ml of milk. This proof of concept study demonstrates efficient drug delivery to breastfeeding infants is achievable using the NSDS.

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures1. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain1, 2, 3, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions9, 10, 11. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 °C.

War, Peace and World Orders from Antiquity until the 20th century

Chapters contributed by experts on each period examine how world views have determined the view of war and peace, and the conduct of war, throughout European history.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

Efficacy of condensed tannins against larval Hymenolepis diminuta (Cestoda) in vitro and in the intermediate host Tenebrio molitor (Coleoptera) in vivo

Natural anti-parasitic compounds in plants such as condensed tannins (CT) have anthelmintic properties against a range of gastrointestinal nematodes, but for other helminths such effects are unexplored. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of CT from three different plant extracts in a model system employing the rat tapeworm, Hymenolepis diminuta, in its intermediate host, Tenebrio molitor. An in vitro study examined infectivity of H. diminuta cysticercoids (excystation success) isolated from infected beetles exposed to different concentrations of CT extracts from pine bark (PB) (Pinus sps), hazelnut pericarp (HN) (Corylus avellana) or white clover flowers (WC) (Trifolium repens), in comparison with the anthelmintic drug praziquantel (positive control). In the in vitro study, praziquantel and CT from all three plant extracts had dose-dependent inhibitory effects on cysticercoid excystation. The HN extract was most effective at inhibiting excystation, followed by PB and WC. An in vivo study was carried out on infected beetles (measured as cysticercoid establishment) fed different doses of PB, HN and praziquantel. There was a highly significant inhibitory effect of HN on cysticercoid development (p = 0.0002). Overall, CT showed a promising anti-cestodal effect against the metacestode stage of H. diminuta.

Mechanisms of the negative shortwave cloud feedback in mid to high latitudes

Increases in cloud optical depth and liquid water path (LWP) are robust features of global warming model simulations in high latitudes, yielding a negative shortwave cloud feedback, but the mechanisms are still uncertain. We assess the importance of microphysical processes for the negative optical depth feedback by perturbing temperature in the microphysics schemes of two aquaplanet models, both of which have separate prognostic equations for liquid water and ice. We find that most of the LWP increase with warming is caused by a suppression of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds, resulting in reduced conversion efficiencies of liquid water to ice and precipitation. Perturbing the temperature-dependent phase partitioning of convective condensate also yields a small LWP increase. Together, the perturbations in large-scale microphysics and convective condensate partitioning explain more than two-thirds of the LWP response relative to a reference case with increased SSTs, and capture all of the vertical structure of the liquid water response. In support of these findings, we show the existence of a very robust positive relationship between monthly-mean LWP and temperature in CMIP5 models and observations in mixed-phase cloud regions only. In models, the historical LWP sensitivity to temperature is a good predictor of the forced global warming response poleward of about 45°, although models appear to overestimate the LWP response to warming compared to observations. We conclude that in climate models, the suppression of ice-phase microphysical processes that deplete cloud liquid water is a key driver of the LWP increase with warming and of the associated negative shortwave cloud feedback.

Connections between clouds, radiation, and midlatitude dynamics: a review

We review the effects of dynamical variability on clouds and radiation in observations and models and discuss their implications for cloud feedbacks. Jet shifts produce robust meridional dipoles in upper-level clouds and longwave cloud-radiative effect (CRE), but low-level clouds, which do not simply shift with the jet, dominate the shortwave CRE. Because the effect of jet variability on CRE is relatively small, future poleward jet shifts with global warming are only a second-order contribution to the total CRE changes around the midlatitudes, suggesting a dominant role for thermodynamic effects. This implies that constraining the dynamical response is unlikely to reduce the uncertainty in extratropical cloud feedback. However, we argue that uncertainty in the cloud-radiative response does affect the atmospheric circulation response to global warming, by modulating patterns of diabatic forcing. How cloud feedbacks can affect the dynamical response to global warming is an important topic of future research.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet

We study the effect of a thermal forcing confined to the midlatitudes of one hemisphere on the eddy-driven jet in the opposite hemisphere. We demonstrate the existence of an “interhemispheric teleconnection,” whereby warming (cooling) the Northern Hemisphere causes both the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Southern Hemispheric midlatitude jet to shift northward (southward). The interhemispheric teleconnection is effected by a change in the asymmetry of the Hadley cells: as the ITCZ shifts away from the Equator, the cross-equatorial Hadley cell intensifies, fluxing more momentum toward the subtropics and sustaining a stronger subtropical jet. Changes in subtropical jet strength, in turn, alter the propagation of extratropical waves into the tropics, affecting eddy momentum fluxes and the eddy-driven westerlies. The relevance of this mechanism is demonstrated in the context of future climate change simulations, where shifts of the ITCZ are significantly related to shifts of the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet in austral winter. The possible relevance of the proposed mechanism to paleoclimates is discussed, particularly with regard to theories of ice age terminations.

Southern Hemisphere jet latitude biases in CMIP5 models linked to shortwave cloud forcing

Substantial biases in shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) of up to ±30 W m−2are found in the midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the historical simulations of 34 CMIP5 coupled general circulation models. The SWCF biases are shown to induce surface temperature anomalies localized in the midlatitudes, and are significantly correlated with the mean latitude of the eddy-driven jet, with a negative SWCF bias corresponding to an equatorward jet latitude bias. Aquaplanet model experiments are performed to demonstrate that the jet latitude biases are primarily induced by the midlatitude SWCF anomalies, such that the jet moves toward (away from) regions of enhanced (reduced) temperature gradients. The results underline the necessity of accurately representing cloud radiative forcings in state-of-the-art coupled models.

Trends in the CERES dataset, 2000–13: the effects of sea ice and jet shifts and comparison to climate models

We review the effects of dynamical variability on clouds and radiation in observations and models and discuss their implications for cloud feedbacks. Jet shifts produce robust meridional dipoles in upper-level clouds and longwave cloud-radiative effect (CRE), but low-level clouds, which do not simply shift with the jet, dominate the shortwave CRE. Because the effect of jet variability on CRE is relatively small, future poleward jet shifts with global warming are only a second-order contribution to the total CRE changes around the midlatitudes, suggesting a dominant role for thermodynamic effects. This implies that constraining the dynamical response is unlikely to reduce the uncertainty in extratropical cloud feedback. However, we argue that uncertainty in the cloud-radiative response does affect the atmospheric circulation response to global warming, by modulating patterns of diabatic forcing. How cloud feedbacks can affect the dynamical response to global warming is an important topic of future research.