Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3

Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2×CO2). Daily winter (December-January-February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2×CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher-dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2×CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large-scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling.

Understanding land-sea warming contrast in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Transient adjustment

Climate model simulations consistently show that surface temperature over land increases more rapidly than over sea in response to greenhouse gas forcing. The enhanced warming over land is not simply a transient effect caused by the land–sea contrast in heat capacities, since it is also present in equilibrium conditions. This paper elucidates the transient adjustment processes over time scales of days to weeks of the surface and tropospheric climate in response to a doubling of CO2 and to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), imposed separately and together, using ensembles of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. These adjustment processes can be grouped into three stages: immediate response of the troposphere and surface processes (day 1), fast adjustment of surface processes (days 2–5), and adjustment of the whole troposphere (days 6–20). Some land surface warming in response to doubled CO2 (with unchanged SSTs) occurs immediately because of increased downward longwave radiation. Increased CO2 also leads to reduced plant stomatal resistance and hence restricted evaporation, which increases land surface warming in the first day. Rapid reductions in cloud amount lead in the next few days to increased downward shortwave radiation and further warming, which spreads upward from the surface, and by day 5 the surface and tropospheric response is statistically consistent with the equilibrium value. Land surface warming in response to imposed SST change (with unchanged CO2) is slower. Tropospheric warming is advected inland from the sea, and over land it occurs at all levels together rather than spreading upward from the surface. The atmospheric response to prescribed SST change in about 20 days is statistically consistent with the equilibrium value, and the warming is largest in the upper troposphere over both land and sea. The land surface warming involves reduction of cloud cover and increased downward shortwave radiation, as in the experiment with CO2 change, but in this case it is due to the restriction of moisture supply to the land (indicated by reduced soil moisture), whereas in the CO2 forcing experiment it is due to restricted evaporation despite increased moisture supply (indicated by increased soil moisture). The warming over land in response to SST change is greater than over the sea and is the dominant contribution to the land–sea warming contrast under enhanced CO2 forcing.

North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios

To understand how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may affect future stratospheric ozone, 21st century projections from four chemistry-climate models are examined for their dependence on six different GHG scenarios. Compared to higher GHG emissions, lower emissions result in smaller increases in tropical upwelling with resultant smaller reductions in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and less severe stratospheric cooling with resultant smaller increases in upper stratospheric ozone globally. Increases in reactive nitrogen and hydrogen that lead to additional chemical ozone destruction mainly play a role in scenarios with higher GHG emissions. Differences among the six GHG scenarios are found to be largest over northern midlatitudes (∼20 DU by 2100) and in the Arctic (∼40 DU by 2100) with divergence mainly in the second half of the 21st century. The uncertainty in the return of stratospheric column ozone to 1980 values arising from different GHG scenarios is comparable to or less than the uncertainty that arises from model differences in the larger set of 17 CCMVal-2 SRES A1B simulations. The results suggest that effects of GHG emissions on future stratospheric ozone should be considered in climate change mitigation policy and ozone projections should be assessed under more than a single GHG scenario.

Antagonistic potential of bacterial isolates associated with entomopathogenic nematodes against tomato wilt caused by Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., Lycopersici under greenhouse conditions

Three concentrations of Xenorhabdus nematophila and Xenorhabdus spp., (4x10(5,) 4x10(6,) 4x10(7) cells/ml) were evaluated in the laboratory and in pot experiments to test their antagonistic effects on Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., lycopersici. All concentrations effectively inhibited its growth on agar plates. In soil under greenhouse conditions treatments with each bacterium at 4x10(7) cells/ml reduced the disease incidence of tomato by up to 40.38 and 47.54% respectively and there were significant increases of plant biomass by 198 and 211% respectively. The rhizosphere population of Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., lycopersici was reduced by 97%. The Xenorhabdus spp., was comparatively more effective than X. nematophila.

Predation of Bradysia sp (Diptera: Sciaridae), Liriomyza trifolii (Diptera: Agromyzidae) and Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) by Coenosia attenuata (Diptera: Muscidae) in greenhouse crops

We studied the predation behaviour of the "hunter fly" (Coenosia attenuata Stein) in the laboratory and greenhouse. In the laboratory, which was conducted at 25 degrees C at 60-80% RH, with a 16L : 8D photoperiod, we examined the functional response of this species to three different pests, namely the sciarid fly (Bradysia sp.), the tobacco whitefly (Bemisia tabaci) and the leaf miner Liriomyza trifolii. In the greenhouse, we studied the population dynamics of the predator and its prey on pepper and water melon crops grown in southern Spain. Adult hunter flies were found to exhibit a type I functional response to adult sciarid flies and whiteflies, but a type II response to adult leaf miners. The type II response was a result of the greater difficulty in capturing and handling leaf miners compared to the other two species. The dynamics of the predator-prey interaction in the greenhouse revealed that the predator specializes mainly on adult sciarids and that the presence of the other prey can be supplemental, but is never essential for survival of the predator; this, however, is crop-dependent. The results oil the dynamics of the predator-prey systems were obtained through a known population dynamics model with modifications.

Greenhouse whitefly (Homoptera : Aleyrodidae) dispersal under different UV-light environments

The greenhouse whitefly, Dialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood) (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae), is known to respond to UV light (UV). Field studies were conducted to improve our understanding of the behavioral effects and practical implications of using UV-blocking plastic films for the control of whitefly. Adult whiteflies were released in outdoor-located choice-chamber experiments with compartments clad with a range of films that transmitted incident UV to different extents. In release-recapture experiments, a very small proportion of the whiteflies recovered had dispersed into compartments where the entire UV spectrum was blocked, whereas the major proportion preferred compartments with UV. Compartments clad with films that blocked LTV below 375 nm attracted significantly more whiteflies than films that blocked UV below 385 nm, whereas the absorption of LTV wavelengths above 385 nm did not show any further effect on whitefly numbers. A reduction in the side cladding of the compartments by > 20% significantly reduced the advantage of using LTV-blocking films. Adult whitefly did not discriminate between direct- and diffused-light environments, as long as the UV-absorbing properties of the films were equivalent. Whitefly dispersal was influenced by the time of the day when adult whitefly were released, with a higher proportion of whitelly avoiding compartments clad with LTV-blocking films, at times of the day when light intensities were higher. The future use of UV-blocking films as a potentially highly effective component of integrated pest management systems for the control of whitefly is discussed.

Far-red light filtering by plastic film, greenhouse-cladding materials: effects on growth and flowering in Petunia and Impatiens

Photoselective plastic films with low transmission to far-red (FR) light (700-800 nm) are now available so that plants grown in greenhouses clad with such plastics exhibit reduced stem extension and, consequently, plant height. Here we compare the action of three FR-absorbing polythene films on extension growth of Petunia (Petunia X hybrida) cv. 'Express Blue' and Impatiens walleriana cv. 'Accent Deep Pink' with plants grown under a control polythene film (standard UVI/EVA film). Half of the plants under the control film were treated with a chemical plant growth regulator (PGR; diaminozide, B-Nine) and half were sprayed with water alone. Possible negative effects of such film plastics on flowering, and on fresh and dry weight accumulation, were also quantified. Plants were harvested destructively when all plants in each treatment had reached the first open flower stage. In Petunia, plant height was reduced by all three FR-filtering films and by PGR-treatment. The FR-filtering films giving the highest R:FR ratios also reduced plant height in Impatiens. Leaf number, leaf area and total dry Weight in both species. were greatest in the controls and smallest under films with the lowest PAR transmission. The film giving the highest R:FR ratio and PAR transmission also produced the most compact Petunia plants;, while the film. with. the lowest PAR transmission produced the least compact plants in both species. There was no significant effect of treatments on time to first flower in Impatiens. However, Petunia plants under low PAR transmission films took longer to flower. Plastic-films which filter out FR light to increase the R:FR ratio, combined With high PAR transmission, can therefore be used as an alternative to conventional PGRs.