Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.

On the energetics of stratified turbulent mixing, irreversible thermodynamics, Boussinesq models and the ocean heat engine controversy

In this paper, the available potential energy (APE) framework of Winters et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 289, 1995, p. 115) is extended to the fully compressible Navier– Stokes equations, with the aims of clarifying (i) the nature of the energy conversions taking place in turbulent thermally stratified fluids; and (ii) the role of surface buoyancy fluxes in the Munk & Wunsch (Deep-Sea Res., vol. 45, 1998, p. 1977) constraint on the mechanical energy sources of stirring required to maintain diapycnal mixing in the oceans. The new framework reveals that the observed turbulent rate of increase in the background gravitational potential energy GPEr , commonly thought to occur at the expense of the diffusively dissipated APE, actually occurs at the expense of internal energy, as in the laminar case. The APE dissipated by molecular diffusion, on the other hand, is found to be converted into internal energy (IE), similar to the viscously dissipated kinetic energy KE. Turbulent stirring, therefore, does not introduce a new APE/GPEr mechanical-to-mechanical energy conversion, but simply enhances the existing IE/GPEr conversion rate, in addition to enhancing the viscous dissipation and the entropy production rates. This, in turn, implies that molecular diffusion contributes to the dissipation of the available mechanical energy ME =APE +KE, along with viscous dissipation. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the concepts of mixing efficiency γmixing and flux Richardson number Rf , for which new physically based definitions are proposed and contrasted with previous definitions. The new framework allows for a more rigorous and general re-derivation from the first principles of Munk & Wunsch (1998, hereafter MW98)’s constraint, also valid for a non-Boussinesq ocean: G(KE) ≈ 1 − ξ Rf ξ Rf Wr, forcing = 1 + (1 − ξ )γmixing ξ γmixing Wr, forcing , where G(KE) is the work rate done by the mechanical forcing, Wr, forcing is the rate of loss of GPEr due to high-latitude cooling and ξ is a nonlinearity parameter such that ξ =1 for a linear equation of state (as considered by MW98), but ξ <1 otherwise. The most important result is that G(APE), the work rate done by the surface buoyancy fluxes, must be numerically as large as Wr, forcing and, therefore, as important as the mechanical forcing in stirring and driving the oceans. As a consequence, the overall mixing efficiency of the oceans is likely to be larger than the value γmixing =0.2 presently used, thereby possibly eliminating the apparent shortfall in mechanical stirring energy that results from using γmixing =0.2 in the above formula.

Why the western Pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to Asian climate. Previous examination of changes in the WPSH found a westward extension since the late 1970s, which has contributed to the inter-decadal transition of East Asian climate. The reason for the westward extension is unknown, however. The present study suggests that this significant change of WPSH is partly due to the atmosphere's response to the observed Indian Ocean-western Pacific (IWP) warming. Coordinated by a European Union's Sixth Framework Programme, Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (DYNAMITE), five AGCMs were forced by identical idealized sea surface temperature patterns representative of the IWP warming and cooling. The results of these numerical experiments suggest that the negative heating in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and increased convective heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean/ Maritime Continent associated with IWP warming are in favor of the westward extension of WPSH. The SST changes in IWP influences the Walker circulation, with a subsequent reduction of convections in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, which then forces an ENSO/Gill-type response that modulates the WPSH. The monsoon diabatic heating mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins plays a secondary reinforcing role in the westward extension of WPSH. The low-level equatorial flank of WPSH is interpreted as a Kelvin response to monsoon condensational heating, while the intensified poleward flow along the western flank of WPSH is in accord with Sverdrup vorticity balance. The IWP warming has led to an expansion of the South Asian high in the upper troposphere, as seen in the reanalysis.

Dynamic scaling of bred vectors in spatially extended chaotic systems

We unfold a profound relationship between the dynamics of finite-size perturbations in spatially extended chaotic systems and the universality class of Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ). We show how this relationship can be exploited to obtain a complete theoretical description of the bred vectors dynamics. The existence of characteristic length/time scales, the spatial extent of spatial correlations and how to time it, and the role of the breeding amplitude are all analyzed in the light of our theory. Implications to weather forecasting based on ensembles of initial conditions are also discussed.

Galactic cosmic ray hazard in the unusual extended solar minimum between solar cycle 23 and 24

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are extremely difficult to shield against and pose one of the most severe long-term hazards for human exploration of space. The recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 shows a prolonged period of reduced solar activity and low interplanetary magnetic field strengths. As a result, the modulation of GCRs is very weak, and the fluxes of GCRs are near their highest levels in the last 25 years in the fall of 2009. Here we explore the dose rates of GCRs in the current prolonged solar minimum and make predictions for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER), which is now measuring GCRs in the lunar environment. Our results confirm the weak modulation of GCRs leading to the largest dose rates seen in the last 25 years over a prolonged period of little solar activity.

A simple variance formula for population size estimators by conditioning

This note considers the variance estimation for population size estimators based on capture–recapture experiments. Whereas a diversity of estimators of the population size has been suggested, the question of estimating the associated variances is less frequently addressed. This note points out that the technique of conditioning can be applied here successfully which also allows us to identify sources of variation: the variance due to estimation of the model parameters and the binomial variance due to sampling n units from a population of size N. It is applied to estimators typically used in capture–recapture experiments in continuous time including the estimators of Zelterman and Chao and improves upon previously used variance estimators. In addition, knowledge of the variances associated with the estimators by Zelterman and Chao allows the suggestion of a new estimator as the weighted sum of the two. The decomposition of the variance into the two sources allows also a new understanding of how resampling techniques like the Bootstrap could be used appropriately. Finally, the sample size question for capture–recapture experiments is addressed. Since the variance of population size estimators increases with the sample size, it is suggested to use relative measures such as the observed-to-hidden ratio or the completeness of identification proportion for approaching the question of sample size choice.

Sonogashira coupling on an extended gold surface in vacuo: reaction of phenylacetylene with iodobenzene on Au(111)

Temperature-programmed reaction measurements supported by scanning tunneling microscopy have shown that phenylacetylene and iodobenzene react on smooth Au(111) under vacuum conditions to yield biphenyl and diphenyldiacetylene, the result of homocoupling of the reactant molecules. They also produce diphenylacetylene, the result of Sonogashira cross-coupling, prototypical of a class of reactions that are of paramount importance in synthetic organic chemistry and whose mechanism remains controversial. Roughened Au(111) is completely inert toward all three reactions, indicating that the availability of crystallographically well-defined adsorption sites is crucially important. High-resolution X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy show that the reactants are initially present as intact, essentially flat-lying molecules and that the temperature threshold for Sonogashira coupling coincides with that for C−I bond scission in the iodobenzene reactant. The fractional-order kinetics and low temperature associated with desorption of the Sonogashira product suggest that the reaction occurs at the boundaries of islands of adsorbed reactants and that its appearance in the gas phase is rate-limited by the surface reaction. These findings demonstrate unambiguously and for the first time that this heterogeneous cross-coupling chemistry is an intrinsic property of extended, metallic pure gold surfaces: no other species, including solvent molecules, basic or charged (ionic) species are necessary to mediate the process.

Host niches and defensive extended phenotypes structure parasitoid wasp communities

Oak galls are spectacular extended phenotypes of gallwasp genes in host oak tissues and have evolved complex morphologies that serve, in part, to exclude parasitoid natural enemies. Parasitoids and their insect herbivore hosts have coevolved to produce diverse communities comprising about a third of all animal species. The factors structuring these communities, however, remain poorly understood. An emerging theme in community ecology is the need to consider the effects of host traits, shaped by both natural selection and phylogenetic history, on associated communities of natural enemies. Here we examine the impact of host traits and phylogenetic relatedness on 48 ecologically closed and species-rich communities of parasitoids attacking gall-inducing wasps on oaks. Gallwasps induce the development of spectacular and structurally complex galls whose species- and generation-specific morphologies are the extended phenotypes of gallwasp genes. All the associated natural enemies attack their concealed hosts through gall tissues, and several structural gall traits have been shown to enhance defence against parasitoid attack. Here we explore the significance of these and other host traits in predicting variation in parasitoid community structure across gallwasp species. In particular, we test the "Enemy Hypothesis,'' which predicts that galls with similar morphology will exclude similar sets of parasitoids and therefore have similar parasitoid communities. Having controlled for phylogenetic patterning in host traits and communities, we found significant correlations between parasitoid community structure and several gall structural traits (toughness, hairiness, stickiness), supporting the Enemy Hypothesis. Parasitoid community structure was also consistently predicted by components of the hosts' spatiotemporal niche, particularly host oak taxonomy and gall location (e.g., leaf versus bud versus seed). The combined explanatory power of structural and spatiotemporal traits on community structure can be high, reaching 62% in one analysis. The observed patterns derive mainly from partial niche specialisation of highly generalist parasitoids with broad host ranges (>20 hosts), rather than strict separation of enemies with narrower host ranges, and so may contribute to maintenance of the richness of generalist parasitoids in gallwasp communities. Though evolutionary escape from parasitoids might most effectively be achieved via changes in host oak taxon, extreme conservatism in this trait for gallwasps suggests that selection is more likely to have acted on gall morphology and location. Any escape from parasitoids associated with evolutionary shifts in these traits has probably only been transient, however, due to subsequent recruitment of parasitoid species already attacking other host galls with similar trait combinations.

A simple variance formula for population size estimators by conditioning

This note considers the variance estimation for population size estimators based on capture–recapture experiments. Whereas a diversity of estimators of the population size has been suggested, the question of estimating the associated variances is less frequently addressed. This note points out that the technique of conditioning can be applied here successfully which also allows us to identify sources of variation: the variance due to estimation of the model parameters and the binomial variance due to sampling n units from a population of size N. It is applied to estimators typically used in capture–recapture experiments in continuous time including the estimators of Zelterman and Chao and improves upon previously used variance estimators. In addition, knowledge of the variances associated with the estimators by Zelterman and Chao allows the suggestion of a new estimator as the weighted sum of the two. The decomposition of the variance into the two sources allows also a new understanding of how resampling techniques like the Bootstrap could be used appropriately. Finally, the sample size question for capture–recapture experiments is addressed. Since the variance of population size estimators increases with the sample size, it is suggested to use relative measures such as the observed-to-hidden ratio or the completeness of identification proportion for approaching the question of sample size choice.

Extended-chain, multinuclear transition metal complexes bridged by cyanodiazenido(1-), [N=N-C=N](-), ligands

Extended-chain complexes containing multiple transition metal centres linked by conjugated mu-cyanodiazenido(1-) ligands [N= N-C N]-have been obtained by reaction of trans-[BrW(dppe)(2)(N2CN)], 1, [dppe = 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino) ethane] with dirhodium(II) tetra-acetate, bis(benzonitrile) palladium(II) dichloride, and bis(aqua) M(II) bis(hexa. uoroacetylacetonate) (M = Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn): stronger Lewis acids such as tetrakis(acetonitrile) palladium(II) tetra. uoroborate and boron trifl. uoride promote hydrolysis of complex 1, leading to the isolation of a novel carbamoylhydrazido(2-) complex, trans-[BrW(dppe) 2(N2HC=ONH2)](+)[BF4](-).

Evaluation of the binding ability of a novel dioxatetraazamacrocyclic receptor that contains two phenanthroline units: selective uptake of carboxylate anions

The novel dioxatetraaza macrocycle [26]phen(2)N(4)O(2), which incorporates two phenanthroline units, has been synthesized, and its acid-base behavior has been evaluated by potentiometric and H-1 NMR methods. Six protonation constants were determined, and the protonation sequence was established by NMR. The location of the fifth proton on the phen nitrogen was confirmed by X-ray determinations of the crystal structures of the receptor as bromide and chloride salts. The two compounds have the general molecular formula {(H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))X-n(H2O)(5-n)}X(n-1)(.)mH(2)O, where X = Cl, n = 3, and m = 6 or X = Br, n = 4, and m = 5.5. In the solid state, the (H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))(5+) cation adopts a "horseshoe" topology with sufficient room to encapsulate three or four halogen anions through the several N-(HX)-X-... hydrogen-bonding interactions. Two supermolecules {(H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))X-n(H2O)(5-n)}((5-n)+) form an interpenetrating dimeric species, which was also found by ESI mass spectrum. Binding studies of the protonated macrocycle with aliphatic (ox(2-), mal(2-), suc(2-), cit(3-), cta(3-)) and aromatic (bzc(-), naphc(-), anthc(-), pyrc(-), ph(2-), iph(2-), tph(2-), btc(3-)) anions were determined in water by potentiometric methods. These studies were complemented by H-1 NMR titrations in D2O of the receptor with selected anions. The H-i[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2)(i+) receptor can selectively uptake highly charged or extended aromatic carboxylate anions, such as btc(3-) and pyrc(-), in the pH ranges of 4.0-8.5 and < 4.0, respectively, from aqueous solution that contain the remaining anions as pollutants or contaminants. To obtain further insight into these structural and experimental findings, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were carried out in water solution.

Architectural, construction and environmental matters of Bahrain's international formula 1 circuit

The Bahrain International Circuit (BIC) is considered its one of the best international racing car track in terms of technical aspects and architectural quality. Two Formula 1 races have been hosted in the Kingdom of Bahrain, in 2004 and 2005, at BIC. The BIC had recently won the award of the best international racing car circuit. This paper highlights on the elements that contributed to the success of such project starting from the architectural aspects, construction, challenges, tendering process, risk management, the workforce, speed of the construction method, and future prospects for harnessing solar and wind energy for sustainable electrification and production of water for the circuit, i.e. making BIC green and environment-friendly international circuit.

Bahrain's Formula-1 racing circuit: energy and environmental considerations

The Bahrain International Circuit (BIC) and complex, at latitude 26.00N and longitude 51.54E, was built in 483 days and cost 150 million US$. The circuit consists of six different individual tracks with a 3.66 km outer track (involving 10 turns) and a 2.55 km inner track (having six turns). The complex has been designed to host a variety of other sporting activities. Fifty thousand spectators, including 10,500 in the main grandstand, can be accommodated simultaneously. State-of-the art on-site media and broadcast facilities are available. The noise level emitted from vehicles on the circuit during the Formula-1 event, on April 4th 2004, was acceptable and caused no physical disturbance to the fans in the VIP lounges or to scholars studying at the University of Bahrain's Shakeir Campus, which is only 1.5 km away from the circuit. The sound-intensity level (SIL) recorded on the balcony of the VIP lounge was 128 dB(A) and was 80 dB(A) inside the lounge. The calculated SIL immediately outside the lecture halls of the University of Bahrain was 70 dB(A) and 65 dB(A) within them. Thus racing at BIC can proceed without significantly disturbing the academic-learning process. The purchased electricity demand by the BIC complex peaked (at 4.5 MW) during the first Formula-1 event on April 4th 2004. The reverse-osmosis (RO) plant at the BIC provides 1000 m(3) of desalinated water per day for landscape irrigation. Renewable-energy inputs, (i.e., via solar and wind power), at the BIC could be harnessed to generate electricity for water desalination, air conditioning, lighting as well as for irrigation. If the covering of the BIC complex was covered by adhesively fixed modern photovoltaic cells, then similar to 1.2 MW of solar electricity could be generated. If two horizontal-axis, at 150 m height above the ground, three 75m bladed, wind turbines were to be installed at the BIC, then the output could reach 4 MW. Furthermore, if 10,000 Jojoba trees (a species renowned for having a low demand for water, needing only five irrigations per year in Bahrain and which remain green throughout the year) are planted near the circuit, then the local micro-climate would be improved with respect to human comfort as well as the local environment becoming cleaner.