Bayesian estimation of the spatial Durbin error model with an application to voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election

The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the previously unutilized spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from an empirical perspective. Formal Bayesian model comparison techniques are employed to compare the normal linear model, the spatially lagged X model (SLX), the spatial Durbin model, and the spatial Durbin error model. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin error model as the appropriate empirical model.

In the shadow of Grexit: the Greek election of 17 June 2012

This article provides an overview and analysis of the Greek June 2012 elections. Placing the elections within the broader framework of the Greek socio-political and economic context, it discusses the electoral campaign and results, juxtaposing them to the 6 May electoral round. The election results confirmed many of the trends of the previous round, including electoral volatility, the fragmentation of the party system and the rise of anti-establishment forces. The main difference was the entrenchment of the pro- versus anti- bailout division and the prominence of the question of Greece’s continued Eurozone membership.

Big social data and political sentiment: the tweet stream during the UK General Election 2015 campaign

The General Election for the 56th United Kingdom Parliament was held on 7 May 2015. Tweets related to UK politics, not only those with the specific hashtag ”#GE2015”, have been collected in the period between March 1 and May 31, 2015. The resulting dataset contains over 28 million tweets for a total of 118 GB in uncompressed format or 15 GB in compressed format. This study describes the method that was used to collect the tweets and presents some analysis, including a political sentiment index, and outlines interesting research directions on Big Social Data based on Twitter microblogging.

UK commercial property lease structures: Landlord and tenant mismatch

UK commercial property lease structures have come under considerable scrutiny during the past decade since the property crash of the early 1990s. In particular, tenants complained that the system was unfair and that it has blocked business change. Government is committed, through its 2001 election manifesto, to promote flexibility and choice in the commercial property lettings market and a new voluntary Commercial Leases Code of Practice was launched in April 2002. This paper investigates whether occupiers are being offered the leases they require or whether there is a mismatch between occupier requirements and actual leases in the market. It draws together the substantial data now available on the actual terms of leases in the UK and surveys of corporate occupiers' attitude to their occupation requirements. Although the data indicated that UK leases have become shorter and more diverse since 1990, this is still not sufficient to meet the current requirements of many corporate occupiers. It is clear that the inability to manage entry and exit strategies is a major concern to occupiers. Lease length is the primary concern of tenants and a number of respondents comment on the mismatch between lease length in the UK and business planning horizons. The right to break and other problems with alienation clauses also pose serious difficulties for occupiers, thus reinforcing the mismatch. Other issues include repairing and insuring clauses and the type of review clause. There are differences in opinion between types of occupier. In particular, international corporate occupiers are significantly more concerned about the length of lease and the incidence of break clauses than national occupiers and private-sector tenants are significantly more concerned about leasing in general than public-sector occupiers. Proposed solutions by tenants are predictable and include shorter leases, more frequent breaks and relaxation of restrictions concerning alienation and other clauses. A significant number specify that they would pay more for shorter leases and other improved terms. Short leases would make many of the other terms more acceptable and this is why they are the main concern of corporate occupiers. Overall, the evidence suggests that there continues to be a gap between occupiers' lease requirements and those currently offered by the market. There are underlying structural factors that act as an inertial force on landlords and inhibit the changes which occupiers appear to want. Nevertheless, the findings raise future research questions concerning whether UK lease structures are a constraining factor on UK competitiveness.

Bovine follicle development is associated with divergent changes in activin-A, inhibin-A and follistatin and the relative abundance of different follistatin isoforms in follicular fluid

The aim was to determine whether follicle growth in cattle is accompanied by changes in levels of inhibin-A (inh-A), activin-A (act-A) and different Mr isofomus of follistatin (FS) in bovine follicular fluid (bFF), reflecting differential roles of these proteins during folliculogenesis. Follcles (n= 146) from 2-20 min diameter were dissected from ovaries of similar to 40 cattle. Immunoassays were used to measure total FS, act-A, inh-A, oestradiol (E) and progesterone (P) levels; immunoblotting was used to quanti, the relative abundance of different FS isoforms. Follicle growth from 2-6 mm was associated with a 6-fold increase in inh-A and 30-fold increase in act-A; FS remained uniformly high from 2-10 turn. From 6-2 min, inh-A remained high while act-A and FS fell 3-fold and 2-fold, respectively. Act-A/FS ratio increased 20-fold from 2-6 mm before falling slightly through to 20 mm. Act-A/inh-A ratio increased 6-fold from 2-6 nun before falling 2-fold from 6 to 17-20 mm. These findings imply a marked increase in relative activin 'tone' around the stage at which dominant follicle,;election occurs. When larger follicles (13-20 mm) were subdivided according to E/P ratio, those with high (> 5) E/P ratio had lower (2-fold; P < 0(.)001) levels of inh-A and act-A in comparison to follicles with low (< 5) E/P ratio, but there were no significant diffierences in FS, act-A/inh-A ratio or act-A/FS ratio. Thus follicle size, but not oestrogenic status, has a major influence on the intrafollicular balance between act-A and its opposing factors, inh-A and FS. Six FS isoforms were detected in bFF (apparent Mr: 65, 41, 37, 35, 33 and 31 kDa) averaging 6, 13, 24, 26 13 and 17% respectively of total FS. During growth from 2-20 mm the proportion of total FS represented by 605, 41 and 37 kDa isoforms increased similar to 2-fold while the proportion represented by the 33 and 31 kDa isoforms decreased by 3-fold and 1(.)6-fold, respectively. Treatment of bovine granulosa cells in vitro with FSH and IGF alone or in combination increased total FS secretion up to 12-fold but did not affect the relative abundance of the five different FS isoforms detected. While the functional significance of the intriguing shift in FS isoform abundance in bFF during follicle development remains to be established, we have shown that a marked increase in intrafollicular activin 'tone' accompanies bovine follicle growth from 3-6 min, corresponding to the stage at which the FSH-dependent follicle selection mechanism operates in this species.

Political market characteristics and the provision of educational infrastructure in North India

In this paper, we are concerned with the provision of schools in rural North India, particularly with whether such provision is determined by the demographic and economic characteristics of the region or whether local democracy also plays a role. We find that the probability that a governing party loses an election has a positive effect on the provision of schooling infrastructure, while the margin of victory of the governing party has a negative effect. Political reservation for members of the Scheduled Castes (SCs) has a positive effect on schooling infrastructure in villages with a large SC population, but a negative effect overall.

Perspectives on community representation within the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative: experiences from south-east Madagascar

This article critically examines the nature and quality of governance in community representation and civil society engagement in the context of trans-national large-scale mining, drawing on experiences in the Anosy Region of south-east Madagascar. An exploration of functional relationships between government, mining business and civil society stakeholders reveals an equivocal legitimacy of certain civil society representatives, created by state manipulation, which contributes to community disempowerment. The appointment of local government officials, rather than election, creates a hierarchy of upward dependencies and a culture where the majority of officials express similar views and political alliances. As a consequence, community resistance is suppressed. Voluntary mechanisms such as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) advocate community stakeholder engagement in decision making processes as a measure to achieve public accountability. In many developing countries, where there is a lack of transparency and high levels of corruption, the value of this engagement, however, is debatable. Findings from this study indicate that the power relationships which exist between stakeholders in the highly lucrative mining industry override efforts to achieve "good governance" through voluntary community engagement. The continuing challenge lies in identifying where the responsibility sits in order to address this power struggle to achieve fair representation.

Paradise postponed? The Department of National Heritage and political hegemony

Established following the Conservative Party's election victory in April 1992, the Department of National Heritage has been heralded as an important stage in the growing recognition of the significance of the leisure industry to Britain. By combining, for the first time, responsibility for sport, tourism, the arts, libraries, heritage, broadcasting and film, and by providing them with Cabinet representation, a unique opportunity has, seemingly, been provided to develop and promote the interests of leisure in Britain. This paper takes the view that although this initiative has been broadly welcomed, there are important inconsistencies which require attention. On the one hand the selection of the portfolio appears somewhat eclectic. On the other hand, it is questionable why such a department should have been developed at all. An inspection of the implicit ideology suggests that rather than the traditional use of the state to promote leisure interests, the introduction of the department signifies a shift to the use of leisure to promote the Government's interests. Thus the new Department of National Heritage is to be used as a central feature in the legitimation of the government's political programme. Rather than emphasising its traditional quasi-welfare role, the new place for leisure and heritage is firmly in the market economy. Whilst a leisured society may be the epitome of post-industrialism, therefore, the citizen rights claim for access to leisure activities can only be secured by engaging with the market. This legitimised construction of post- modern citizenship is at the centre of a new political order where choice has been replaced by means and where the classless paradigm championed by the Prime Minister will be a classlessness of constructed omission.

Leisure, consumerism and active citizenship in the UK

Since the first election victory of the Thatcher administration in 1979, Britain has witnessed a cultural transformation from the municipal socialism enshrined in the post-World War 2 development of the Welfare State to a form of post-industrial entrepreneurialism based largely on market rationality. This has had a profound effect on all aspects of civil life, not least the redefinition of the role of active leisure. Since the late 1950s the dominant policy for active leisure has been 'Sport For All', an assertion of a social right too important to be left to the market. The transformation has, therefore, signalled a shift from government support for active leisure as an element of citizen rights to the use of leisure to promote the government's interest in legitimating a new social order based not on rights but on means. Thus access to active living is no longer a societal goal for all, but a discretionary consumer good, the consumption of which signifies 'active' citizenship. It furthermore signifies differentiation from the growing mass of 'deviants' who are unwilling or unable to embrace this new construction of citizenship and are, therefore, increasingly denied access to active living and, hence, active citizenship.

Recent trends in UK Government policy on the provision and management of leisure facilities

Since the first election victory of the Thatcher administration in 1979, Britain has witnessed a cultural transformation from the municipal socialism of the post-World War 2 Welfare State to a form of post-industrial entrepreneurialism. This has had a profound effect on all aspects of civil society, not least the redefinition of the role of active leisure from the 1950s evocation of 'Sport For All' to the market rationality of the 1980s. The transformation has signalled a shift from government support for active leisure as an element of citizen rights to the use of leisure to promote the government's interest in legitimating a new social order based not on rights but on means. Thus access to active living is no longer a societal goal for all, but a discretionary consumer good, the consumption of which signifies 'active' citizenship. It furthermore signifies differentiation from the growing mass of 'deviants' who are unwilling or unable to embrace this new construction of citizenship and are, therefore, increasingly denied access to active living and, hence, active citizenship.

Investigation of the impact of feeding Lactobacillus plantarum CRL 1815 encapsulated in microbially derived polymers on the rat faecal microbiota

AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the administration of microencapsulated Lactobacillus plantarum CRL 1815 with two combinations of microbially derived polysaccharides, xanthan : gellan gum (1%:0·75%) and jamilan : gellan gum (1%:1%), on the rat faecal microbiota. METHODS AND RESULTS: A 10-day feeding study was performed for each polymer combination in groups of 16 rats fed either with placebo capsules, free or encapsulated Lact. plantarum or water. The composition of the faecal microbiota was analysed by fluorescence in situ hybridization and temporal temperature gradient gel electrophoresis. Degradation of placebo capsules was detected, with increased levels of polysaccharide-degrading bacteria. Xanthan : gellan gum capsules were shown to reduce the Bifidobacterium population and increase the Clostridium histolyticum group levels, but not jamilan : gellan gum capsules. Only after administration of jamilan : gellan gum-probiotic capsules was detected a significant increase in Lactobacillus-Enterococcus group levels compared to controls (capsules and probiotic) as well as two bands were identified as Lact. plantarum in two profiles of ileum samples. CONCLUSIONS: Exopolysaccharides constitute an interesting approach for colon-targeted delivery of probiotics, where jamilan : gellan gum capsules present better biocompatibility and promising results as a probiotic carrier. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF STUDY: This study introduces and highlights the importance of biological compatibility in the encapsulating material election, as they can modulate the gut microbiota by themselves, and the use of bacterial exopolysaccharides as a powerful source of new targeted-delivery coating material.

The President above parties: a founding illusion of the Fifth Republic

De Gaulle, founder of the Fifth French Republic, cherished the notion that the president of the Republic could somehow stand above party politics. In many ways this belief shaped the early institutional configuration of the new Republic. Party politics, however, rapidly reached the presidency, especially with the move, under the constitutional reform of 1962, to direct election of the president. This article charts the development of France's 'political constitution' and the relationship between president and parties over the first decade of the Fifth Republic. It finds that although the presidency became the prime goal of party political competition, the (often dysfunctional) illusion of a head of state above politics continues to shape the behaviour and perceptions of French presidents.