Tracking the momentum flux of a CME and quantifying its influence on geomagnetically induced currents at Earth

We investigate a coronal mass ejection (CME) propagating toward Earth on 29 March 2011. This event is specifically chosen for its predominately northward directed magnetic field, so that the influence from the momentum flux onto Earth can be isolated. We focus our study on understanding how a small Earth-directed segment propagates. Mass images are created from the white-light cameras onboard STEREO which are also converted into mass height-time maps (mass J-maps). The mass tracks on these J-maps correspond to the sheath region between the CME and its associated shock front as detected by in situ measurements at L1. A time series of mass measurements from the STEREO COR-2A instrument is made along the Earth propagation direction. Qualitatively, this mass time series shows a remarkable resemblance to the L1 in situ density series. The in situ measurements are used as inputs into a three-dimensional (3-D) magnetospheric space weather simulation from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. These simulations display a sudden compression of the magnetosphere from the large momentum flux at the leading edge of the CME, and predictions are made for the time derivative of the magnetic field (dB/dt) on the ground. The predicted dB/dt values were then compared with the observations from specific equatorially located ground stations and showed notable similarity. This study of the momentum of a CME from the Sun down to its influence on magnetic ground stations on Earth is presented as a preliminary proof of concept, such that future attempts may try to use remote sensing to create density and velocity time series as inputs to magnetospheric simulations.

The gravity wave momentum flux in hydrostatic flow with directional shear over elliptical mountains

Semi-analytical expressions for the momentum flux associated with orographic internal gravity waves, and closed analytical expressions for its divergence, are derived for inviscid, stationary, hydrostatic, directionally-sheared flow over mountains with an elliptical horizontal cross-section. These calculations, obtained using linear theory conjugated with a third-order WKB approximation, are valid for relatively slowly-varying, but otherwise generic wind profiles, and given in a form that is straightforward to implement in drag parametrization schemes. When normalized by the surface drag in the absence of shear, a quantity that is calculated routinely in existing drag parametrizations, the momentum flux becomes independent of the detailed shape of the orography. Unlike linear theory in the Ri → ∞ limit, the present calculations account for shear-induced amplification or reduction of the surface drag, and partial absorption of the wave momentum flux at critical levels. Profiles of the normalized momentum fluxes obtained using this model and a linear numerical model without the WKB approximation are evaluated and compared for two idealized wind profiles with directional shear, for different Richardson numbers (Ri). Agreement is found to be excellent for the first wind profile (where one of the wind components varies linearly) down to Ri = 0.5, while not so satisfactory, but still showing a large improvement relative to the Ri → ∞ limit, for the second wind profile (where the wind turns with height at a constant rate keeping a constant magnitude). These results are complementary, in the Ri > O(1) parameter range, to Broad’s generalization of the Eliassen–Palm theorem to 3D flow. They should contribute to improve drag parametrizations used in global weather and climate prediction models.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere

Lagged correlation analysis is often used to infer intraseasonal dynamical effects but is known to be affected by non-stationarity. We highlight a pronounced quasi-two-year peak in the anomalous zonal wind and eddy momentum flux convergence power spectra in the Southern Hemisphere, which is prima facie evidence for non-stationarity. We then investigate the consequences of this non-stationarity for the Southern Annular Mode and for eddy momentum flux convergence. We argue that positive lagged correlations previously attributed to the existence of an eddy feedback are more plausibly attributed to non-stationary interannual variability external to any potential feedback process in the mid-latitude troposphere. The findings have implications for the diagnosis of feedbacks in both models and re-analysis data as well as for understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in the zonal wind.

Solar influences on dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved.

Wind-driven mixing below the oceanic mixed layer

This study describes the turbulent processes in the upper ocean boundary layer forced by a constant surface stress in the absence of the Coriolis force using large-eddy simulation. The boundary layer that develops has a two-layer structure, a well-mixed layer above a stratified shear layer. The depth of the mixed layer is approximately constant, whereas the depth of the shear layer increases with time. The turbulent momentum flux varies approximately linearly from the surface to the base of the shear layer. There is a maximum in the production of turbulence through shear at the base of the mixed layer. The magnitude of the shear production increases with time. The increase is mainly a result of the increase in the turbulent momentum flux at the base of the mixed layer due to the increase in the depth of the boundary layer. The length scale for the shear turbulence is the boundary layer depth. A simple scaling is proposed for the magnitude of the shear production that depends on the surface forcing and the average mixed layer current. The scaling can be interpreted in terms of the divergence of a mean kinetic energy flux. A simple bulk model of the boundary layer is developed to obtain equations describing the variation of the mixed layer and boundary layer depths with time. The model shows that the rate at which the boundary layer deepens does not depend on the stratification of the thermocline. The bulk model shows that the variation in the mixed layer depth is small as long as the surface buoyancy flux is small.

A mechanism for the effect of tropospheric jet structure on the annular mode-like response to stratospheric forcing

For many climate forcings the dominant response of the extratropical circulation is a latitudinal shift of the tropospheric mid-latitude jets. The magnitude of this response appears to depend on climatological jet latitude in general circulation models (GCMs): lower latitude jets exhibit a larger shift. The reason for this latitude dependence is investigated for a particular forcing, heating of the equatorial stratosphere, which shifts the jet poleward. Spin-up ensembles with a simplified GCM are used to examine the evolution of the response for five different jet structures. These differ in the latitude of the eddy-driven jet, but have similar sub-tropical zonal winds. It is found that lower latitude jets exhibit a larger response due to stronger tropospheric eddy-mean flow feedbacks. A dominant feedback responsible for enhancing the poleward shift is an enhanced equatorward refraction of the eddies, resulting in an increased momentum flux, poleward of the low latitude critical line. The sensitivity of feedback strength to jet structure is associated with differences in the coherence of this behaviour across the spectrum of eddy phase speeds. In the configurations used, the higher latitude jets have a wider range of critical latitude locations. This reduces the coherence of the momentum flux anomalies associated with different phase speeds, with low phase speeds opposing the effect of high phase speeds. This suggests that, for a given sub-tropical zonal wind strength, the latitude of the eddy driven jet affects the feedback through its influence on the width of the region of westerly winds and the range of critical latitudes on the equatorward flank of the jet.

On the momentum fluxes associated with mountain waves in directionally sheared flows

The direct impact of mountain waves on the atmospheric circulation is due to the deposition of wave momentum at critical levels, or levels where the waves break. The first process is treated analytically in this study within the framework of linear theory. The variation of the momentum flux with height is investigated for relatively large shears, extending the authors’ previous calculations of the surface gravity wave drag to the whole atmosphere. A Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) approximation is used to treat inviscid, steady, nonrotating, hydrostatic flow with directional shear over a circular mesoscale mountain, for generic wind profiles. This approximation must be extended to third order to obtain momentum flux expressions that are accurate to second order. Since the momentum flux only varies because of wave filtering by critical levels, the application of contour integration techniques enables it to be expressed in terms of simple 1D integrals. On the other hand, the momentum flux divergence (which corresponds to the force on the atmosphere that must be represented in gravity wave drag parameterizations) is given in closed analytical form. The momentum flux expressions are tested for idealized wind profiles, where they become a function of the Richardson number (Ri). These expressions tend, for high Ri, to results by previous authors, where wind profile effects on the surface drag were neglected and critical levels acted as perfect absorbers. The linear results are compared with linear and nonlinear numerical simulations, showing a considerable improvement upon corresponding results derived for higher Ri.

Sensitivity of simulated climate to conservation of momentum in gravity wave drag parameterization

The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model is used to examine the sensitivity of simulated climate to conservation of momentum in gravity wave drag parameterization. Momentum conservation requires that the parameterized gravity wave momentum flux at the top of the model be zero and corresponds to the physical boundary condition of no momentum flux at the top of the atmosphere. Allowing momentum flux to escape the model domain violates momentum conservation. Here the impact of momentum conservation in two sets of model simulations is investigated. In the first set, the simulation of present-day climate for two model-lid height configurations, 0.001 and 10 hPa, which are identical below 10 hPa, is considered. The impact of momentum conservation on the climate with the model lid at 0.001 hPa is minimal, which is expected because of the small amount of gravity wave momentum flux reaching 0.001 hPa. When the lid is lowered to 10 hPa and momentum is conserved, there is only a modest impact on the climate in the Northern Hemisphere; however, the Southern Hemisphere climate is more adversely affected by the deflection of resolved waves near the model lid. When momentum is not conserved in the 10-hPa model the climate is further degraded in both hemispheres, particularly in winter at high latitudes, and the impact of momentum conservation extends all the way to the surface. In the second set of simulations, the impact of momentum conservation and model-lid height on the modeled response to ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere is considered, and it is found that the response can display significant sensitivity to both factors. In particular, both the lower-stratospheric polar temperature and surface responses are significantly altered when the lid is lowered, with the effect being most severe when momentum is not conserved. The implications with regard to the current round of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections are discussed.

The angular momentum constraint on climate sensitivity and downward influence in the middle atmosphere

It is shown that under reasonable assumptions, conservation of angular momentum provides a strong constraint on gravity wave drag feedbacks to radiative perturbations in the middle atmosphere. In the time mean, radiatively induced temperature perturbations above a given altitude z cannot induce changes in zonal mean wind and temperature below z through feedbacks in gravity wave drag alone (assuming an unchanged gravity wave source spectrum). Thus, despite the many uncertainties in the parameterization of gravity wave drag, the role of gravity wave drag in middle-atmosphere climate perturbations may be much more limited than its role in climate itself. This constraint limits the possibilities for downward influence from the mesosphere. In order for a gravity wave drag parameterization to respect the momentum constraint and avoid spurious downward influence, any nonzero parameterized momentum flux at a model lid must be deposited within the model domain, and there must be no zonal mean sponge layer. Examples are provided of how violation of these conditions leads to spurious downward influence. For planetary waves, the momentum constraint does not prohibit downward influence, but it limits the mechanisms by which it can occur: in the time mean, downward influence from a radiative perturbation can only arise through changes in reflection and meridional propagation properties of planetary waves.

The transient atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies

To study the transient atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies, a three-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) model coupled to a slab oceanic mixed layer in the North Atlantic is used. As diagnosed from a coupled run in perpetual winter conditions, the first two modes of SST variability are linked to the model North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and eastern Atlantic pattern (EAP), respectively, the dominant atmospheric modes in the Atlantic sector. The two SST anomaly patterns are then prescribed as fixed anomalous boundary conditions for the model atmosphere, and its transient responses are established from a large ensemble of simulations. In both cases, the tendency of the air–sea heat fluxes to damp the SST anomalies results in an anomalous diabatic heating of the atmosphere that, in turn, forces a baroclinic response, as predicted by linear theory. This initial response rapidly modifies the transient eddy activity and thus the convergence of eddy momentum and heat fluxes. The latter transforms the baroclinic response into a growing barotropic one that resembles the atmospheric mode that had created the SST anomaly in the coupled run and is thus associated with a positive feedback. The total adjustment time is as long as 3–4 months for the NAO-like response and 1–2 months for the EAP-like one. The positive feedback, in both cases, is dependent on the polarity of the SST anomaly, but is stronger in the NAO case, thereby contributing to its predominance at low frequency in the coupled system. However, the feedback is too weak to lead to an instability of the atmospheric modes and primarily results in an increase of their amplitude and persistence and a weakening of the heat flux damping of the SST anomaly.

Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing

An underestimate of atmospheric blocking occurrence is a well-known limitation of many climate models. This article presents an analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in an atmospheric model with increased horizontal resolution. European blocking frequency increases with model resolution, and this results from an improvement in the atmospheric patterns of variability as well as a simple improvement in the mean state. There is some evidence that the transient eddy momentum forcing of European blocks is increased at high resolution, which could account for this. However, it is also shown that the increase in resolution of the orography is needed to realise the improvement in blocking, consistent with the increase in height of the Rocky Mountains acting to increase the tilt of the Atlantic jet stream and giving higher mean geopotential heights over northern Europe. Blocking frequencies in the Pacific sector are also increased with atmospheric resolution, but in this case the improvement in orography actually leads to a decrease in blocking

Improved evaporative flux partitioning and carbon flux in the land surface model JULES: impact on the simulation of land surface processes in temperate Europe

The primary role of land surface models embedded in climate models is to partition surface available energy into upwards, radiative, sensible and latent heat fluxes. Partitioning of evapotranspiration, ET, is of fundamental importance: as a major component of the total surface latent heat flux, ET affects the simulated surface water balance, and related energy balance, and consequently the feedbacks with the atmosphere. In this context it is also crucial to credibly represent the CO2 exchange between ecosystems and their environment. In this study, JULES, the land surface model used in UK weather and climate models, has been evaluated for temperate Europe. Compared to eddy covariance flux measurements, the CO2 uptake by the ecosystem is underestimated and the ET overestimated. In addition, the contribution to ET from soil and intercepted water evaporation far outweighs the contribution of plant transpiration. To alleviate these biases, adaptations have been implemented in JULES, based on key literature references. These adaptations have improved the simulation of the spatio-temporal variability of the fluxes and the accuracy of the simulated GPP and ET, including its partitioning. This resulted in a shift of the seasonal soil moisture cycle. These adaptations are expected to increase the fidelity of climate simulations over Europe. Finally, the extreme summer of 2003 was used as evaluation benchmark for the use of the model in climate change studies. The improved model captures the impact of the 2003 drought on the carbon assimilation and the water use efficiency of the plants. It, however, underestimates the 2003 GPP anomalies. The simulations showed that a reduction of evaporation from the interception and soil reservoirs, albeit not of transpiration, largely explained the good correlation between the carbon and the water fluxes anomalies that was observed during 2003. This demonstrates the importance of being able to discriminate the response of individual component of the ET flux to environmental forcing.

The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet

We study the effect of a thermal forcing confined to the midlatitudes of one hemisphere on the eddy-driven jet in the opposite hemisphere. We demonstrate the existence of an “interhemispheric teleconnection,” whereby warming (cooling) the Northern Hemisphere causes both the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Southern Hemispheric midlatitude jet to shift northward (southward). The interhemispheric teleconnection is effected by a change in the asymmetry of the Hadley cells: as the ITCZ shifts away from the Equator, the cross-equatorial Hadley cell intensifies, fluxing more momentum toward the subtropics and sustaining a stronger subtropical jet. Changes in subtropical jet strength, in turn, alter the propagation of extratropical waves into the tropics, affecting eddy momentum fluxes and the eddy-driven westerlies. The relevance of this mechanism is demonstrated in the context of future climate change simulations, where shifts of the ITCZ are significantly related to shifts of the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet in austral winter. The possible relevance of the proposed mechanism to paleoclimates is discussed, particularly with regard to theories of ice age terminations.