Natural disasters, economic growth and sustainable development in China: an empirical study using provincial panel data

Using a newly developed integrated indicator system with entropy weighting, we analyzed the panel data of 577 recorded disasters in 30 provinces of China from 1985–2011 to identify their links with the subsequent economic growth. Meteorological disasters promote economic growth through human capital instead of physical capital. Geological disasters did not trigger local economic growth from 1999–2011. Generally, natural disasters overall had no significant impact on economic growth from 1985–1998. Thus, human capital reinvestment should be the aim in managing recoveries, and it should be used to regenerate the local economy based on long-term sustainable development.

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

It is premature to include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes

The recent G8 Gleneagles climate statement signed on 8 July 2005 specifically mentions a determination to lessen the impact of aviation on climate [Gleneagles, 2005. The Gleneagles communique: climate change, energy and sustainable development. http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/PostG8_Gleneagles_Communique.pdf]. In January 2005 the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) commenced operation as the largest multi-country, multi-sector ETS in the world, albeit currently limited only to CO2 emissions. At present the scheme makes no provision for aircraft emissions. However, the UK Government would like to see aircraft included in the ETS and plans to use its Presidencies of both the EU and G8 in 2005 to implement these schemes within the EU and perhaps internationally. Non-CO2 effects have been included in some policy-orientated studies of the impact of aviation but we argue that the inclusion of such effects in any such ETS scheme is premature; we specifically argue that use of the Radiative Forcing Index for comparing emissions from different sources is inappropriate and that there is currently no metric for such a purpose that is likely to enable their inclusion in the near future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Octanol-water partition coefficients for predicting the effects of tannins in ruminant nutrition

Tannins can cause beneficial or harmful nutritional effects, but their great diversity has until now prevented a rational distinction between tannin structures and their nutritional responses. An attempt has been made to study this problem by examining the octanol-water solubilities of tannins. A relatively simple HPLC method has been developed for screening mixtures of plant tannins for their octanol-water partition coefficients (K-ow coefficients). Tannins were isolated from the fruits and leaves of different Acacia, Calliandra, Dichrostachys, and Piliostigma species, which are known to produce beneficial or harmful effects. The K-ow coefficients of these tannins ranged from 0.061 to 13.9, average coefficients of variation were 9.2% and recoveries were 107%. Acacia nilotica fruits and leaves had the highest K-ow coefficients, that is, 2.0 and 13.9, respectively. These A. nilotica products also have high concentrations of tannins. The combined effects of high octanol solubilities and high tannin concentrations may explain their negative effects on animal nutrition and health. It is known that compounds with high octanol solubilities are more easily absorbed into tissues, and it is, therefore, proposed that such compounds are more likely to cause toxicity problems especially if consumed in large quantities. According to the literature, tannins in human foods tend to have low K-ow coefficients, and this was confirmed for the tannins in Piliostigma thonningii fruits. Therefore, unconventional feeds or browse products should be screened not only for their tannin concentrations but also for low octanol-water partition coefficients in order to identify nutritionally safe feeds and to avoid potentially toxic feeds.

Effects of dredging in Goteborg Harbor, Sweden, assessed by biomarkers in eelpout (Zoarces viviparus)

We used a battery of biomarkers in fish to study the effects of the extensive dredging in Goteborg harbor situated at the river Gota alv estuary, Sweden. Eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) were sampled along a gradient into Goteborg harbor, both before and during the dredging. Biomarker responses in the eelpout before the dredging already indicated that fish in Goteborg harbor are chronically affected by pollutants under normal conditions compared to those in a reference area. However, the results during the dredging activities clearly show that fish were even more affected by remobilized pollutants. Elevated ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activities and cytochrome P4501A levels indicated exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Elevated metallothionein gene expression indicated an increase in metal exposure. An increase in general cell toxicity, measured as a decrease in lysosomal membrane stability, as well as effects on the immune system also could be observed in eelpout sampled during the dredging. The results also suggest that dredging activities in the Gota alv estuary can affect larger parts of the Swedish western coast than originally anticipated. The present study demonstrates that the application of a set of biomarkers is a useful approach in monitoring the impact of anthropogenic activities on aquatic environments.

Activation of pro-survival Akt and ERK1/2 signalling pathways underlie the anti-apoptotic effects of flavanones in cortical neurons

There is growing interest in the potential beneficial effects of flavonoids in the aging and diseased brain. We have investigated the potential of the flavanone hesperetin and two of its metabolites, hesperetin-7-O-beta-D-glucuronide and 5-nitro-hesperetin, to inhibit oxidative stress-induced neuronal apoptosis. Exposure of cortical neurons to hydrogen peroxide led to the activation of apoptosis signal-regulating kinase 1 via its de-phosphorylation at Ser963, the phosphorylation of c-jun N-terminal kinase and c-Jun (Ser73) and the activation of caspase 3 and caspase 9. Whilst hesperetin glucuronide failed to exert protection, both hesperetin and 5-nitro-hesperetin were effective at preventing neuronal apoptosis via a mechanism involving the activation/phosphorylation of both Akt/protein kinase B and extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1/2). Protection against oxidative injury and the activation of Akt and ERK1/2 followed a bell-shaped response and was most apparent at 100 nmol/L concentrations. The activation of ERK1/2 and Akt by flavanones led to the inhibition of the pro-apoptotic proteins, apoptosis signal-regulating kinase 1, by phosphorylation at Ser83 and Bad, by phosphorylation at both Ser136 and Ser112 and to the inhibition of peroxide-induced caspase 9 and caspase 3 activation. Thus, flavanones may protect neurons against oxidative insults via the modulation of neuronal apoptotic machinery.

Effects of variation in the palm stearin: palm olein ratio on the crystallisation of a low-trans shortening

Changes in the theological properties during crystallisation and in the crystal size and morphology of blends containing rapeseed oil with varying percentages of palm stearin (POs) and palm olein (POf) have been studied. The crystals formed from all three blends were studied by confocal laser scanning microscopy, light microscopy and environmental scanning electron microscopy, which revealed the development of clusters of 3-5 individual elementary "spherulites" in the early stages of crystallisation. The saturated triacylglycerol content of the solid crystals separated at the onset of crystallisation was much greater than that in the total fat. Fat blends with a higher content of palm stearin had a more rapid nucleation rate when observed by light microscopy, and this caused an earlier change in the rheological properties of the fat during crystallisation. Using a low torque amplitude (0.005 Pa, which was within the linear viscoelastic region of all samples studied) and a frequency of 1 Hz, the viscoelastic properties of melted fat during cooling were studied. All samples, prior to crystallisation, showed weak viscoelastic liquid behaviour (G '', loss modulus >G', storage modulus). After crystallisation a more "solid like" behaviour was observed (G' similar to or greater than G ''). The blend having the highest concentration of POs was found to have the earliest onset of crystallisation (27% w/w POs; 12 mins, 22% w/w POs; 13.5 mins, 17% w/w POs, 15 mins, respectively). However, there were no significant differences in the time to the point when G' became greater than G' among the three blends. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neuroprotective effects of hesperetin in mouse primary neurones are independent of CREB activation

Dietary flavonoids, including the citrus flavanone hesperetin, may have stimulatory, effects on cytoprotective intracellular signalling pathways. In primary mouse cortical neurone cultures, but not SH-SY5Y human neuroblastoma cells or human primary dermal fibroblasts (Promocells), hesperetin (100-300 nM, 15 min) caused significant increases in the level of ERK1/2 phosphorylation, but did not increase CREB phosphorylation. Administration of hesperetin for 18 h did not alter gene expression driven by the cyclic AMP response element (CRE), assessed using a luciferase reporter system, but 300 nM hesperetin partially reversed staurosporine-induced cell death in primary neurones. Our data show that hesperetin is a neuroprotective compound at concentrations where antioxidant effects are unlikely to predominate. The effects of hesperetin are cell-type dependent and, unlike the flavanol (-)epicatechin, neuroprotection in vitro is not associated with enhanced CREB phosphorylation or CRE-mediated gene expression. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceptual compensation for effects of reverberation in speech identification

Listeners were asked to identify modified recordings of the words "sir" and "stir," which were spoken by an adult male British-English speaker. Steps along a continuum between the words were obtained by a pointwise interpolation of their temporal-envelopes. These test words were embedded in a longer "context" utterance, and played with different amounts of reverberation. Increasing only the test-word's reverberation shifts the listener's category boundary so that more "sir"-identifications are made. This effect reduces when the context's reverberation is also increased, indicating perceptual compensation that is informed by the context. Experiment I finds that compensation is more prominent in rapid speech, that it varies between rooms, that it is more prominent when the test-word's reverberation is high, and that it increases with the context's reverberation. Further experiments show that compensation persists when the room is switched between the context and the test word, when presentation is monaural, and when the context is reversed. However, compensation reduces when the context's reverberation pattern is reversed, as well as when noise-versions of the context are used. "Tails" that reverberation introduces at the ends of sounds and at spectral transitions may inform the compensation mechanism about the amount of reflected sound in the signal. (c) 2005 Acoustical Society of America.

The effects of variation in snow properties on snow mass estimation using the Chang algorithm

Estimating snow mass at continental scales is difficult but important for understanding landatmosphere interactions, biogeochemical cycles and Northern latitudes’ hydrology. Remote sensing provides the only consistent global observations, but the uncertainty in measurements is poorly understood. Existing techniques for the remote sensing of snow mass are based on the Chang algorithm, which relates the absorption of Earth-emitted microwave radiation by a snow layer to the snow mass within the layer. The absorption also depends on other factors such as the snow grain size and density, which are assumed and fixed within the algorithm. We examine the assumptions, compare them to field measurements made at the NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) Colorado field site in 2002–3, and evaluate the consequences of deviation and variability for snow mass retrieval. The accuracy of the emission model used to devise the algorithm also has an impact on its accuracy, so we test this with the CLPX measurements of snow properties against SSM/I and AMSR-E satellite measurements.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part I: Literature review

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasingly complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I) reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develops conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to building simulation scientists, initiates a dialogue and builds bridges between scientists and engineers, and stimulates future research about a wide range of issues on building environmental systems.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part II: Conceptual frameworks

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasing complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I), published in the previous issue, reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develop conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to (1) building simulation scientists and designers (2) initiating a dialogue between scientists and engineers, and (3) stimulating future research on a wide range of issues involved in designing and managing building environmental systems.

The effects of variation in snow properties on passive microwave snow mass estimation

Estimating snow mass at continental scales is difficult, but important for understanding land-atmosphere interactions, biogeochemical cycles and the hydrology of the Northern latitudes. Remote sensing provides the only consistent global observations, butwith unknown errors. Wetest the theoretical performance of the Chang algorithm for estimating snow mass from passive microwave measurements using the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) snow microwave emission model. The algorithm's dependence upon assumptions of fixed and uniform snow density and grainsize is determined, and measurements of these properties made at the Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) Colorado field site in 2002–2003 used to quantify the retrieval errors caused by differences between the algorithm assumptions and measurements. Deviation from the Chang algorithm snow density and grainsize assumptions gives rise to an error of a factor of between two and three in calculating snow mass. The possibility that the algorithm performsmore accurately over large areas than at points is tested by simulating emission from a 25 km diameter area of snow with a distribution of properties derived from the snow pitmeasurements, using the Chang algorithm to calculate mean snow-mass from the simulated emission. The snowmass estimation froma site exhibiting the heterogeneity of the CLPX Colorado site proves onlymarginally different than that from a similarly-simulated homogeneous site. The estimation accuracy predictions are tested using the CLPX field measurements of snow mass, and simultaneous SSM/I and AMSR-E measurements.