The ERA-40 re-analysis

ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized. A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the second-generation ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright.

Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap

1. Comparative analyses are used to address the key question of what makes a species more prone to extinction by exploring the links between vulnerability and intrinsic species’ traits and/or extrinsic factors. This approach requires comprehensive species data but information is rarely available for all species of interest. As a result comparative analyses often rely on subsets of relatively few species that are assumed to be representative samples of the overall studied group. 2. Our study challenges this assumption and quantifies the taxonomic, spatial, and data type biases associated with the quantity of data available for 5415 mammalian species using the freely available life-history database PanTHERIA. 3. Moreover, we explore how existing biases influence results of comparative analyses of extinction risk by using subsets of data that attempt to correct for detected biases. In particular, we focus on links between four species’ traits commonly linked to vulnerability (distribution range area, adult body mass, population density and gestation length) and conduct univariate and multivariate analyses to understand how biases affect model predictions. 4. Our results show important biases in data availability with c.22% of mammals completely lacking data. Missing data, which appear to be not missing at random, occur frequently in all traits (14–99% of cases missing). Data availability is explained by intrinsic traits, with larger mammals occupying bigger range areas being the best studied. Importantly, we find that existing biases affect the results of comparative analyses by overestimating the risk of extinction and changing which traits are identified as important predictors. 5. Our results raise concerns over our ability to draw general conclusions regarding what makes a species more prone to extinction. Missing data represent a prevalent problem in comparative analyses, and unfortunately, because data are not missing at random, conventional approaches to fill data gaps, are not valid or present important challenges. These results show the importance of making appropriate inferences from comparative analyses by focusing on the subset of species for which data are available. Ultimately, addressing the data bias problem requires greater investment in data collection and dissemination, as well as the development of methodological approaches to effectively correct existing biases.

Modelling seasonally varying data: A case study for sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)

Many time series are measured monthly, either as averages or totals, and such data often exhibit seasonal variability-the values of the series are consistently larger for some months of the year than for others. A typical series of this type is the number of deaths each month attributed to SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). Seasonality can be modelled in a number of ways. This paper describes and discusses various methods for modelling seasonality in SIDS data, though much of the discussion is relevant to other seasonally varying data. There are two main approaches, either fitting a circular probability distribution to the data, or using regression-based techniques to model the mean seasonal behaviour. Both are discussed in this paper.

Interfacial structure of wild-type and mutant forms of puroindoline-b bound to DPPG monolayers

The interaction of wild-type puroindoline-b (Pin-b+) and two mutant forms having single residue substitutions (G46S or W44R) with L-alpha-dipalmitoylphosphatidyl-dl-glycerol (DPPG) as a Langmuir monolayer at the air/water interface was investigated by neutron reflectivity (NR) and Brewster angle microscopy (BAM). NR profiles were fitted using a three-layer model to enable differences in penetration of protein between the lipid headgroup and acyl regions to be determined. The data showed similar surface excesses for each of the three proteins at the interface; however, it was revealed that the depth of penetration of protein into the lipid region differed for each protein with Pin-b+ penetrating further into the acyl region of the lipid compared to the mutant forms of the protein that interacted with the headgroup region only. BAM images revealed that the domain structure of the DPPG monolayers was disrupted when Pin-b+ adsorption had reached equilibrium, suggesting protein penetration had led to compression of the lipid region. In contrast, the domain structure was unaffected by the W44R mutant, suggesting no change in compression of the lipid region and hence little or no penetration of protein into the lipid layer.

Incorporating data received after a sequential trial has stopped into the final analysis: implementation and comparison of methods

In a sequential clinical trial, accrual of data on patients often continues after the stopping criterion for the study has been met. This is termed “overrunning.” Overrunning occurs mainly when the primary response from each patient is measured after some extended observation period. The objective of this article is to compare two methods of allowing for overrunning. In particular, simulation studies are reported that assess the two procedures in terms of how well they maintain the intended type I error rate. The effect on power resulting from the incorporation of “overrunning data” using the two procedures is evaluated.

An illustration of the modelling of cost and efficacy data from a clinical trial

Health care providers, purchasers and policy makers need to make informed decisions regarding the provision of cost-effective care. When a new health care intervention is to be compared with the current standard, an economic evaluation alongside an evaluation of health benefits provides useful information for the decision making process. We consider the information on cost-effectiveness which arises from an individual clinical trial comparing the two interventions. Recent methods for conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis for a clinical trial have focused on the net benefit parameter. The net benefit parameter, a function of costs and health benefits, is positive if the new intervention is cost-effective compared with the standard. In this paper we describe frequentist and Bayesian approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis which have been suggested in the literature and apply them to data from a clinical trial comparing laparoscopic surgery with open mesh surgery for the repair of inguinal hernias. We extend the Bayesian model to allow the total cost to be divided into a number of different components. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are discussed. In January 2001, NICE issued guidance on the type of surgery to be used for inguinal hernia repair. We discuss our example in the light of this information. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Active-control trials with binary data: a comparison of methods for testing superiority or non-inferiority using the odds ratio

This paper considers methods for testing for superiority or non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data, when the relative treatment effect is expressed as an odds ratio. Three asymptotic tests for the log-odds ratio based on the unconditional binary likelihood are presented, namely the likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests. All three tests can be implemented straightforwardly in standard statistical software packages, as can the corresponding confidence intervals. Simulations indicate that the three alternatives are similar in terms of the Type I error, with values close to the nominal level. However, when the non-inferiority margin becomes large, the score test slightly exceeds the nominal level. In general, the highest power is obtained from the score test, although all three tests are similar and the observed differences in power are not of practical importance. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Novel high-resolution characterization of ancient DNA reveals C > U-type base modification events as the sole cause of post mortem miscoding lesions

Ancient DNA (aDNA) research has long depended on the power of PCR to amplify trace amounts of surviving genetic material from preserved specimens. While PCR permits specific loci to be targeted and amplified, in many ways it can be intrinsically unsuited to damaged and degraded aDNA templates. PCR amplification of aDNA can produce highly-skewed distributions with significant contributions from miscoding lesion damage and non-authentic sequence artefacts. As traditional PCR-based approaches have been unable to fully resolve the molecular nature of aDNA damage over many years, we have developed a novel single primer extension (SPEX)-based approach to generate more accurate sequence information. SPEX targets selected template strands at defined loci and can generate a quantifiable redundancy of coverage; providing new insights into the molecular nature of aDNA damage and fragmentation. SPEX sequence data reveals inherent limitations in both traditional and metagenomic PCR-based approaches to aDNA, which can make current damage analyses and correct genotyping of ancient specimens problematic. In contrast to previous aDNA studies, SPEX provides strong quantitative evidence that C U-type base modifications are the sole cause of authentic endogenous damage-derived miscoding lesions. This new approach could allow ancient specimens to be genotyped with unprecedented accuracy.

A note on the accuracy of PAC-likelihood inference with microsatellite data

Stephens and Donnelly have introduced a simple yet powerful importance sampling scheme for computing the likelihood in population genetic models. Fundamental to the method is an approximation to the conditional probability of the allelic type of an additional gene, given those currently in the sample. As noted by Li and Stephens, the product of these conditional probabilities for a sequence of draws that gives the frequency of allelic types in a sample is an approximation to the likelihood, and can be used directly in inference. The aim of this note is to demonstrate the high level of accuracy of "product of approximate conditionals" (PAC) likelihood when used with microsatellite data. Results obtained on simulated microsatellite data show that this strategy leads to a negligible bias over a wide range of the scaled mutation parameter theta. Furthermore, the sampling variance of likelihood estimates as well as the computation time are lower than that obtained with importance sampling on the whole range of theta. It follows that this approach represents an efficient substitute to IS algorithms in computer intensive (e.g. MCMC) inference methods in population genetics. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Differential expression of mRNAs encoding co-receptor (betaglycan) and activin type-I preovulatory and prehierarchical follicles of the putative inhibin and type-II receptors in the laying hen ovary

Ovarian follicle development is primarily regulated by an interplay between the pituitary gonadotrophins, LH and FSH, and ovary-derived steroids. Increasing evidence implicates regulatory roles of transforming growth factor-beta (TGF beta) superfamily members, including inhibins and activins. The aim of this study was to identify the expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors of the inhibin/activin system in ovarian follicles ranging from 4 mm in diameter to the dominant F1 follicle (similar to 40 turn). Ovaries were collected (n=16) from inid-sequence hens maintained on a long-day photoschedule (16h of light:8 h of darkness). All follicles removed were dissected into individual granulosa and thecal layers. RNA was extracted and cDNA synthesized. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify the expression of niRNA encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type-I, -IIA and -IIB) and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH); receptor expression data were normalized to GAPDH expression. Detectable levels of ActRI, -IIA and -IIB and the inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) expression were found in all granulosa and thecal layers analysed. Granulosa ActRI mRNA peaked (P < 0(.)05) in 8-9(.)9 mm follicles, whereas ActRIIA rose significantly from 6-7(.)9 mm to 8-9(.)9 nun, before filling to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (3-fold) to F1 levels. Granulosa betaglycan niRNA expression rose 3-fold from 4-5(.)9 min to 8-9(.)9 mm, before falling 4-fold to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (4-fold) to F1 levels. ActRIIB levels did not vary significantly during follicular development. Thecal ActRI mRNA expression was similar from 4-7(.)9 mm then decreased significantly to a nadir at the F4 position, before increasing 2-fold to the F1 (P < 0(.)05). Although thecal ActRIIB and -IIA expression did not vary significantly from 4 nim to F3, ActRIIB expression increased significantly (2-fold) from F3 to F1 and ActIIA, increased 22-fold from F2 to F1 (P < 0(.)05). Thecal betaglycan fell to a nadir at F6 after follicle selection; levels then increased significantly to F2, before filling similar to 50% in the F I. In all follicles studied expression of betaglycan and ActRI (granulosa: 1-0(.)65, P < 0-001, n=144/group; theca: r=0(.)49, P < 0-001, n=144/group) was well correlated. No significant correlations were identified between betaglycan and ActRIIA or -IIB. Considering all follicles analysed, granulosa mRNA expression of betaglycan, ActRI ActRIIA and ActRIIB were all significantly lower than in corresponding thecal tissue (betaglycan, 11(.)4-fold; ActRIIB, 5(.)1-fold; ActR(.) 3-8-fold: ActRIIA, 2(.)8-fold). The co-localization of type-I and -II activin receptors and betaglycan on granulosa and thecal cells are consistent with a local auto/paracrine role of inhibins and activins in modulating ovarian follicle development, selection and progression in the domestic fowl.

Disease progression in heterosexual patients infected with closely related subtype B strains of HIV type 1 with differing coreceptor usage properties

Previously we described a heterosexual outbreak of HIV-1 subtype B in a town in the north of England (Doncaster) where 11 of 13 infections were shown to be linked by phylogenetic analysis of the env gp120 region. The 11 infections were related to a putative index case, Don1, and further divided into two groups based on the patients' disease status, their viral sequences, and other epidemiological information. Here we describe two further findings. First, we found that viral isolates and gp120 recombinant viruses derived from patients from one group used the CCR5 coreceptor, whereas viruses from the other group could use both the CCR5 and CXCR4 coreceptors. Patients with the X4/R5 dual tropic strains were symptomatic when diagnosed and progressed rapidly, in contrast to the other patient group that has remained asymptomatic, implying a link between the tropism of the strains and disease outcome. Second, we present additional sequence data derived from the index case, demonstrating the presence of sequences from both clades, with an average interclade distance of 9.56%, providing direct evidence of a genetic link between these two groups. This new study shows that Don1 harbored both strains, implying he was either dually infected or that over time intrahost diversification from the R5 to R5/X4 phenotype occurred. These events may account for/have led to the spread of two genetically related strains with different pathogenic properties within the same heterosexual community.

Control of human immunodeficiency virus type-1 protease activity in insect cells expressing Gag-Pol rescues assembly of immature but not mature virus-like particles

Expression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) Gag protein in insect cells using baculovirus vectors leads to the abundant production of virus-like particles (VLPs) that represent the immature form of the virus. When Gag-Pol is included, however, VLP production is abolished, a result attributed to premature protease activation degrading the intracellular pool of Gag precursor before particle assembly can occur. As large-scale synthesis of mature noninfectious VLPs would be useful, we have sought to control HIV protease activity in insect cells to give a balance of Gag and Gag-Pol that is compatible with mature particle formation. We show here that intermediate levels of protease activity in insect cells can be attained through site-directed mutagenesis of the protease and through antiprotease drug treatment. However, despite Gag cleavage patterns that mimicked those seen in mammalian cells, VLP synthesis exhibited an essentially all-or-none response in which VLP synthesis occurred but was immature or failed completely. Our data are consistent with a requirement for specific cellular factors in addition to the correct ratio of Gag and Gag-Pol for assembly of mature retrovirus particles in heterologous cell types. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

The structure of echovirus type 12 bound to a two-domain fragment of its cellular attachment protein decay-accelerating factor (CD 55)

Echovirus type 12 (EV12), an enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family, uses the complement regulator, decay-accelerating factor (DAF, CD55) as a cellular receptor. We have calculated a three-dimensional reconstruction of EV12 bound to a fragment of DAF, consisting of short consensus repeat domains 3 and 4, from cryo-negative stain electron microscopy data (EMD #1057). This shows that, as for an earlier reconstruction of the related echovirus type 7 bound to DAF, attachment is not within the viral canyon but occurs close to the two-fold symmetry axes. Despite this general similarity, our reconstruction reveals a receptor interaction that is quite different from that observed for EV7. Fitting of the crystallographic co-ordinates for DAF34 and EV11 into the reconstruction shows a close agreement between the crystal structure of the receptor fragment and the density for the virus-bound receptor, allowing unambiguous positioning of the receptor with respect to the virion (PDB #1UPN). Our finding that the mode of virus-receptor interaction in EV12 is distinct from that seen for EV7 raises interesting questions regarding the evolution and biological significance of the DAF-binding phenotype in these viruses.

Differential expression of mRNAs encoding co-receptor (betaglycan) and activin type-I preovulatory and prehierarchical follicles of the putative inhibin and type-II receptors in the laying hen ovary

Ovarian follicle development is primarily regulated by an interplay between the pituitary gonadotrophins, LH and FSH, and ovary-derived steroids. Increasing evidence implicates regulatory roles of transforming growth factor-beta (TGF beta) superfamily members, including inhibins and activins. The aim of this study was to identify the expression of mRNAs encoding key receptors of the inhibin/activin system in ovarian follicles ranging from 4 mm in diameter to the dominant F1 follicle (similar to 40 turn). Ovaries were collected (n=16) from inid-sequence hens maintained on a long-day photoschedule (16h of light:8 h of darkness). All follicles removed were dissected into individual granulosa and thecal layers. RNA was extracted and cDNA synthesized. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to quantify the expression of niRNA encoding betaglycan, activin receptor (ActR) subtypes (type-I, -IIA and -IIB) and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH); receptor expression data were normalized to GAPDH expression. Detectable levels of ActRI, -IIA and -IIB and the inhibin co-receptor (betaglycan) expression were found in all granulosa and thecal layers analysed. Granulosa ActRI mRNA peaked (P < 0(.)05) in 8-9(.)9 mm follicles, whereas ActRIIA rose significantly from 6-7(.)9 mm to 8-9(.)9 nun, before filling to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (3-fold) to F1 levels. Granulosa betaglycan niRNA expression rose 3-fold from 4-5(.)9 min to 8-9(.)9 mm, before falling 4-fold to F3/2; levels then rose sharply (4-fold) to F1 levels. ActRIIB levels did not vary significantly during follicular development. Thecal ActRI mRNA expression was similar from 4-7(.)9 mm then decreased significantly to a nadir at the F4 position, before increasing 2-fold to the F1 (P < 0(.)05). Although thecal ActRIIB and -IIA expression did not vary significantly from 4 nim to F3, ActRIIB expression increased significantly (2-fold) from F3 to F1 and ActIIA, increased 22-fold from F2 to F1 (P < 0(.)05). Thecal betaglycan fell to a nadir at F6 after follicle selection; levels then increased significantly to F2, before filling similar to 50% in the F I. In all follicles studied expression of betaglycan and ActRI (granulosa: 1-0(.)65, P < 0-001, n=144/group; theca: r=0(.)49, P < 0-001, n=144/group) was well correlated. No significant correlations were identified between betaglycan and ActRIIA or -IIB. Considering all follicles analysed, granulosa mRNA expression of betaglycan, ActRI ActRIIA and ActRIIB were all significantly lower than in corresponding thecal tissue (betaglycan, 11(.)4-fold; ActRIIB, 5(.)1-fold; ActR(.) 3-8-fold: ActRIIA, 2(.)8-fold). The co-localization of type-I and -II activin receptors and betaglycan on granulosa and thecal cells are consistent with a local auto/paracrine role of inhibins and activins in modulating ovarian follicle development, selection and progression in the domestic fowl.

The automatic identification and prioritisation of criminal networks from police crime data

The identification of criminal networks is not a routine exploratory process within the current practice of the law enforcement authorities; rather it is triggered by specific evidence of criminal activity being investigated. A network is identified when a criminal comes to notice and any associates who could also be potentially implicated would need to be identified if only to be eliminated from the enquiries as suspects or witnesses as well as to prevent and/or detect crime. However, an identified network may not be the one causing most harm in a given area.. This paper identifies a methodology to identify all of the criminal networks that are present within a Law Enforcement Area, and, prioritises those that are causing most harm to the community. Each crime is allocated a score based on its crime type and how recently the crime was committed; the network score, which can be used as decision support to help prioritise it for law enforcement purposes, is the sum of the individual crime scores.