What (science for) adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture? A commentary on “A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050” by J. Ramirez-Villegas, M. Salazar, A. Jarvis, C. E. Navarro-Valcines.

Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether the actions listed in the proposal alone and specifically for smallholders, truly represent priority issues. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change.

Colombian agriculture under multiple exposures: a review and research agenda

We adopt the multiple exposures framework to review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change, trade liberalization, and violent conflict on Colombian agriculture. These stressors act simultaneously but policies address them separately, overlooking the root causes of vulnerability. We find that the expected impacts of the single stressors have been relatively well documented, but that limited research has been dedicated to the observed effects of these three stressors and to their interactions. We propose a research agenda in three themes: trade-offs; social mechanisms; and governance. This agenda can inform not only agricultural adaptation but also debate on the alternative agricultural development models.

Influence of aluminum hydroxide on potassium release from two Colombian soils

The effect of sesquioxides on the mechanisms of chemical reactions that govern the transformation between exchangeable potassium (Kex) and non-exchangeable K (Knex) was studied on acid tropical soils from Colombia: Caribia with predominantly 2 : 1 clay minerals and High Terrace with predominantly 1 : 1 clay minerals and sesquioxides. Illite and vermiculite are the main clay minerals in Caribia followed by kaolinite, gibbsite, and plagioclase, and kaolinite is the major clay mineral in High Terrace followed by hydroxyl-Al interlayered vermiculite, quartz, and pyrophyllite. The soils have 1.8 and 0.5% of K2O, respectively. They were used either untreated or prepared by adding AlCl3 and NaOH, which produced aluminum hydroxide. The soils were percolated continuously with 10mM NH4OAc at pH 7.0 and 10 mM CaCl2 at pH 5.8 for 120 h at 6 mL h(-1) to examine the release of Kex and Knex. In the untreated soils, NH4+ and Ca-2(+) released the same amounts of Kex from Caribia, whereas NH4+ released about twice as much Kex as Ca2+ from High Terrace. This study proposes that the small ionic size of NH4+ (0.54nm) enables it to enter more easily into the K sites at the broken edges of the kaolinite where Ca2+ (0.96 nm) cannot have access. As expected for a soil dominated by 2 : 1 clay minerals, Ca2+ caused Knex to be released from Caribia with no release by NH4+. No Knex was released by either ion from High Terrace. After treatment with aluminum hydroxide, K release from the exchangeable fraction was reduced in Caribia due to the blocking of the exchange sites but release of Knex was not affected. The treatment increased the amount of Kex released from the High Terrace soil and the release of Knex remained negligible although with Ca2+ the distinction between Kex and Knex was unclear. The increase in Kex was attributed to the initially acidic conditions produced by adding AlCl3 which may have dissolved interlayered aluminum hydroxide from the vermiculite present, thus exposing trapped K as exchangeable K. The subsequent precipitation of aluminum hydroxide when NaOH was added did not interfere with the release of this K, and so was probably formed mostly on the surface of the dominant kaolinite. Measurement of availability of K by standard methods using NH4 salts could result in overestimates in High Terrace and this may be a more general shortcoming of the methods in kaolinitic soils.

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (A) literature review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a "compensation of errors" mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a "pedigree" classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.

Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.

Libraries and literature in Rome

A chapter of 6,000 words on books, literary culture, and public and private libraries in the ancient city of Rome