Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

Causes of the apparent scale independence of fractal indices associated with forest fragmentation in Bolivia

In a recent investigation, Landsat TM and ETM+ data were used to simulate different resolutions of remotely-sensed images (from 30 to 1100 m) and to analyze the effect of resolution on a range of landscape metrics associated with spatial patterns of forest fragmentation in Chapare, Bolivia since the mid-1980s. Whereas most metrics were found to be highly dependent on pixel size, several fractal metrics (DLFD, MPFD, and AWMPFD) were apparently independent of image resolution, in contradiction with a sizeable body of literature indicating that fractal dimensions of natural objects depend strongly on image characteristics. The present re-analysis of the Chapare images, using two alternative algorithms routinely used for the evaluation of fractal dimensions, shows that the values of the box-counting and information fractal dimensions are systematically larger, sometimes by as much as 85%, than the "fractal" indices DLFD, MPFD, and AWMFD for the same images. In addition, the geometrical fractal features of the forest and non-forest patches in the Chapare region strongly depend on the resolution of images used in the analysis. The largest dependency on resolution occurs for the box-counting fractal dimension in the case of the non-forest patches in 1993, where the difference between the 30 and I 100 m-resolution images corresponds to 24% of the full theoretical range (1.0 to 2.0) of the mass fractal dimension. The observation that the indices DLFD, MPFD, and AWMPFD, unlike the classical fractal dimensions, appear relatively unaffected by resolution in the case of the Chapare images seems due essentially to the fact that these indices are based on a heuristic, "non-geometric" approach to fractals. Because of their lack of a foundation in fractal geometry, nothing guarantees that these indices will be resolution-independent in general. (C) 2006 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Causes of preventable drug-related hospital admissions: a qualitative study

Objective: To explore the causes of preventable drug-related admissions (PDRAs) to hospital. Design: Qualitative case studies using semi-structured interviews and medical record review; data analysed using a framework derived from Reason's model of organisational accidents and cascade analysis. Participants: 62 participants, including 18 patients, 8 informal carers, 17 general practitioners, 12 community pharmacists, 3 practice nurses and 4 other members of healthcare staff, involved in events leading up to the patients' hospital admissions. Setting: Nottingham, UK. Results: PDRAs are associated with problems at multiple stages in the medication use process, including prescribing, dispensing, administration, monitoring and help seeking. The main causes of these problems are communication failures ( between patients and healthcare professionals and different groups of healthcare professionals) and knowledge gaps ( about drugs and patients' medical and medication histories). The causes of PDRAs are similar irrespective of whether the hospital admission is associated with a prescribing, monitoring or patient adherence problem. Conclusions: The causes of PDRAs are multifaceted and complex. Technical solutions to PDRAs will need to take account of this complexity and are unlikely to be sufficient on their own. Interventions targeting the human causes of PDRAs are also necessary - for example, improving methods of communication.

Office noise and employee concentration: identifying causes of disruption and potential improvements

A field study assessed subjective reports of distraction from various office sounds among 88 employees at two sites. In addition, the study examined the amount of exposure the workers had to the noise in order to determine any evidence for habituation. Finally, respondents were asked how they would improve their environment ( with respect to noise), and to rate examples of improvements with regards to their job satisfaction and performance. Out of the sample, 99% reported that their concentration was impaired by various components of office noise, especially telephones left ringing at vacant desks and people talking in the background. No evidence for habituation to these sounds was found. These results are interpreted in the light of previous research regarding the effects of noise in offices and the 'irrelevant sound effect'.

A qualitative exploration of the underlying causes of preventable drug-related morbidity in primary care, resulting in hospitalisation

This study has explored the underlying causes of preventable drug-related admissions to hospital, from primary care through semi-structured interviews and review of patients’ medical records. Analysis of the data has revealed that communication failures between different groups of healthcare professionals and between healthcare professionals and patients contribute to preventable drug-related admissions, as do knowledge gaps about medication in both healthcare professionals and patients. In addition, working conditions for community pharmacists severely limit their ability to effectively act as a safety barrier to patients receiving inappropriate medication. Limitations include heavy workloads, lack of access to patients’ clinical information, poor relationships with general practitioners and time restrictions. The results of this study represent an important addition to our understanding of the contribution of human error as an underlying cause of preventable drug-related morbidity, and the factors which contribute to errors occurring in the primary healthcare setting.

Effect of incremental levels of fish oil in the diet on ruminal lipid metabolism in growing steers

Based on the potential benefits to human health, there is interest in developing sustainable nutritional strategies to enhance the concentration of long-chain n-3 fatty acids in ruminant-derived foods. Four Aberdeen Angus steers fitted with rumen and duodenal cannulae were used in a 4 × 4 Latin square experiment with 21 d experimental periods to examine the potential of fish oil (FO) in the diet to enhance the supply of 20 : 5n-3 and 22 : 6n-3 available for absorption in growing cattle. Treatments consisted of total mixed rations based on maize silage fed at a rate of 85 g DM/kg live weight0·75/d containing 0, 8, 16 and 24 g FO/kg diet DM. Supplements of FO reduced linearly (P < 0·01) DM intake and shifted (P < 0·01) rumen fermentation towards propionate at the expense of acetate and butyrate. FO in the diet enhanced linearly (P < 0·05) the flow of trans-16 : 1, trans-18 : 1, trans-18 : 2, 20 : 5n-3 and 22 : 6n-3, and decreased linearly (P < 0·05) 18 : 0 and 18 : 3n-3 at the duodenum. Increases in the flow of trans-18 : 1 were isomer dependent and were determined primarily by higher amounts of trans-11 reaching the duodenum. In conclusion, FO alters ruminal lipid metabolism of growing cattle in a dose-dependent manner consistent with an inhibition of ruminal biohydrogenation, and enhances the amount of long-chain n-3 fatty acids at the duodenum, but the increases are marginal due to extensive biohydrogenation in the rumen.

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

Investigating the prevalence and causes of prescribing errors in general practice: the PRACtICe Study

Aim: To determine the prevalence and nature of prescribing errors in general practice; to explore the causes, and to identify defences against error. Methods: 1) Systematic reviews; 2) Retrospective review of unique medication items prescribed over a 12 month period to a 2% sample of patients from 15 general practices in England; 3) Interviews with 34 prescribers regarding 70 potential errors; 15 root cause analyses, and six focus groups involving 46 primary health care team members Results: The study involved examination of 6,048 unique prescription items for 1,777 patients. Prescribing or monitoring errors were detected for one in eight patients, involving around one in 20 of all prescription items. The vast majority of the errors were of mild to moderate severity, with one in 550 items being associated with a severe error. The following factors were associated with increased risk of prescribing or monitoring errors: male gender, age less than 15 years or greater than 64 years, number of unique medication items prescribed, and being prescribed preparations in the following therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, infections, malignant disease and immunosuppression, musculoskeletal, eye, ENT and skin. Prescribing or monitoring errors were not associated with the grade of GP or whether prescriptions were issued as acute or repeat items. A wide range of underlying causes of error were identified relating to the prescriber, patient, the team, the working environment, the task, the computer system and the primary/secondary care interface. Many defences against error were also identified, including strategies employed by individual prescribers and primary care teams, and making best use of health information technology. Conclusion: Prescribing errors in general practices are common, although severe errors are unusual. Many factors increase the risk of error. Strategies for reducing the prevalence of error should focus on GP training, continuing professional development for GPs, clinical governance, effective use of clinical computer systems, and improving safety systems within general practices and at the interface with secondary care.

Glu298Asp polymorphism influences the beneficial effects of fish oil fatty acids on postprandial vascular function

Our objective was to determine whether the endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) Glu298Asp polymorphism influences vascular response to raised NEFA enriched with saturated fatty acids (SFA) or long-chain (LC) n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA). Subjects were prospectively recruited for genotype (Glu298, n = 30 and Asp298, n = 29; balanced for age and gender) consumed SFA on two occasions, with and without the substitution of 0.07 g fat/kg body weight with LC n-3 PUFA, and with heparin infusion to elevate NEFA. Endothelial function was measured before and after NEFA elevation (240 min), with blood samples taken every 30 min. Flow-mediated dilation (FMD) decreased following SFA alone and increased following SFA+LC n-3 PUFA. There were 2-fold differences in the change in FMD response to the different fat loads between the Asp298 and Glu298 genotypes (P = 0.002) and between genders (P < 0.02). Sodium nitroprusside-induced reactivity, measured by laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis, was significantly greater with SFA+LC n-3 PUFA in all female subjects (P < 0.001) but not in males. Elevated NEFA influences both endothelial-dependent and endothelial-independent vasodilation during the postprandial phase. Effects of fat composition appear to be genotype and gender dependent, with the greatest difference in vasodilatory response to the two fat loads seen in the Asp298 females.

The causes of prescribing errors in English general practices: a qualitative study

Aim: To examine the causes of prescribing and monitoring errors in English general practices and provide recommendations for how they may be overcome. Design: Qualitative interview and focus group study with purposive sampling and thematic analysis informed by Reason’s accident causation model. Participants: General practice staff participated in a combination of semi-structured interviews (n=34) and six focus groups (n=46). Setting: Fifteen general practices across three primary care trusts in England. Results: We identified seven categories of high-level error-producing conditions: the prescriber, the patient, the team, the task, the working environment, the computer system, and the primary-secondary care interface. Each of these was further broken down to reveal various error-producing conditions. The prescriber’s therapeutic training, drug knowledge and experience, knowledge of the patient, perception of risk, and their physical and emotional health, were all identified as possible causes. The patient’s characteristics and the complexity of the individual clinical case were also found to have contributed to prescribing errors. The importance of feeling comfortable within the practice team was highlighted, as well as the safety of general practitioners (GPs) in signing prescriptions generated by nurses when they had not seen the patient for themselves. The working environment with its high workload, time pressures, and interruptions, and computer related issues associated with mis-selecting drugs from electronic pick-lists and overriding alerts, were all highlighted as possible causes of prescribing errors and often interconnected. Conclusion: This study has highlighted the complex underlying causes of prescribing and monitoring errors in general practices, several of which are amenable to intervention.

Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south-central Indiana, USA

Observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its biophysical drivers have been collected at the AmeriFlux site in the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, USA since 1998. Thus, this is one of the few deciduous forest sites in the world, where a decadal analysis on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) trends is possible. Despite the large interannual variability in NEP, the observations show a significant increase in forest productivity over the past 10 years (by an annual increment of about 10 g C m−2 yr−1). There is evidence that this trend can be explained by longer vegetative seasons, caused by extension of the vegetative activity in the fall. Both phenological and flux observations indicate that the vegetative season extended later in the fall with an increase in length of about 3 days yr−1 for the past 10 years. However, these changes are responsible for only 50% of the total annual gain in forest productivity in the past decade. A negative trend in air and soil temperature during the winter months may explain an equivalent increase in NEP through a decrease in ecosystem respiration.

The timing and causes of the Neolithic elm decline: new evidence from the Lower Thames Valley (London, UK)

Two new multi-proxy records of environmental change are provided from Horton Kirby Paper Mill and Old Seager Distillery in the Lower Thames Valley. Each site has evidence for a decline in elm woodland, which at Horton Kirby Paper Mill is recorded earlier than any other published record from the British Isles: sometime between 7320 and 7240 cal BP. Scolytus scolytus/S. multistriatus (the vectors for Dutch elm disease) are recorded after the decline in both sequences, adding to the number of sites with such evidence in the British Isles. Evidence of paludification and human activity are also recorded at the time of the elm decline reinforcing the multi-causal hypothesis. Integration of these results with 21 palaeoenvironmental records has produced a large number of well-dated, multiproxy records of the elm decline in this part of the UK. On the basis of this dataset, a classification system for categorising the relationships between the causal factors of the elm decline is proposed and recommended for future studies.

Rationality of service composition of Workflow Net in a service oriented architecture

Users’ requirements change drives an information system evolution. Consequently, such evolution affects those atomic services which provide functional operations from one state of their composition to another state of composition. A challenging issue associated with such evolution of the state of service composition is to ensure a resultant service composition remaining rational. This paper presents a method of Service Composition Atomic-Operation Set (SCAOS). SCAOS defines 2 classes of atomic operations and 13 kinds of basic service compositions to aid a state change process by using Workflow Net. The workflow net has algorithmic capabilities to compose the required services with rationality and maintain any changes to the services in a different composition also rational. This method can improve the adaptability to the ever changing business requirements of information systems in the dynamic environment.