A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component

About 90% of the anthropogenic increase in heat stored in the climate system is found the oceans. Therefore it is relevant to understand the details of ocean heat uptake. Here we present a detailed, process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes in HiGEM1.2, an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with an eddy-permitting ocean component of 1/3 degree resolution. Similarly to various other models, HiGEM1.2 shows that the global heat budget is dominated by a downward advection of heat compensated by upward isopycnal diffusion. Only in the upper tropical ocean do we find the classical balance between downward diapycnal diffusion and upward advection of heat. The upward isopycnal diffusion of heat is located mostly in the Southern Ocean, which thus dominates the global heat budget. We compare the responses to a 4xCO2 forcing and an enhancement of the windstress forcing in the Southern Ocean. This highlights the importance of regional processes for the global ocean heat uptake. These are mainly surface fluxes and convection in the high latitudes, and advection in the Southern Ocean mid-latitudes. Changes in diffusion are less important. In line with the CMIP5 models, HiGEM1.2 shows a band of strong OHU in the mid-latitude Southern Ocean in the 4xCO2 run, which is mostly advective. By contrast, in the high-latitude Southern Ocean regions it is the suppression of convection that leads to OHU. In the enhanced windstress run, convection is strengthened at high Southern latitudes, leading to heat loss, while the magnitude of the OHU in the Southern mid-latitudes is very similar to the 4xCO2 results. Remarkably, there is only very small global OHU in the enhanced windstress run. The wind stress forcing just leads to a redistribution of heat. We relate the ocean changes at high southern latitudes to the effect of climate change on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). It weakens in the 4xCO2 run and strengthens in the wind stress run. The weakening is due to a narrowing of the ACC, caused by an expansion of the Weddell Gyre, and a flattening of the isopycnals, which are explained by a combination of the wind stress forcing and increased precipitation.

Exploring strategies for coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model

Operational forecasting centres are currently developing data assimilation systems for coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Strongly coupled assimilation, in which a single assimilation system is applied to a coupled model, presents significant technical and scientific challenges. Hence weakly coupled assimilation systems are being developed as a first step, in which the coupled model is used to compare the current state estimate with observations, but corrections to the atmosphere and ocean initial conditions are then calculated independently. In this paper we provide a comprehensive description of the different coupled assimilation methodologies in the context of four dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) and use an idealised framework to assess the expected benefits of moving towards coupled data assimilation. We implement an incremental 4D-Var system within an idealised single column atmosphere-ocean model. The system has the capability to run both strongly and weakly coupled assimilations as well as uncoupled atmosphere or ocean only assimilations, thus allowing a systematic comparison of the different strategies for treating the coupled data assimilation problem. We present results from a series of identical twin experiments devised to investigate the behaviour and sensitivities of the different approaches. Overall, our study demonstrates the potential benefits that may be expected from coupled data assimilation. When compared to uncoupled initialisation, coupled assimilation is able to produce more balanced initial analysis fields, thus reducing initialisation shock and its impact on the subsequent forecast. Single observation experiments demonstrate how coupled assimilation systems are able to pass information between the atmosphere and ocean and therefore use near-surface data to greater effect. We show that much of this benefit may also be gained from a weakly coupled assimilation system, but that this can be sensitive to the parameters used in the assimilation.

The dependence of southern ocean meridional overturning on wind stress

An eddy-resolving numerical model of a zonal flow, meant to resemble the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is described and analyzed using the framework of J. Marshall and T. Radko. In addition to wind and buoyancy forcing at the surface, the model contains a sponge layer at the northern boundary that permits a residual meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to exist at depth. The strength of the residual MOC is diagnosed for different strengths of surface wind stress. It is found that the eddy circulation largely compensates for the changes in Ekman circulation. The extent of the compensation and thus the sensitivity of the MOC to the winds depend on the surface boundary condition. A fixed-heat-flux surface boundary severely limits the ability of the MOC to change. An interactive heat flux leads to greater sensitivity. To explain the MOC sensitivity to the wind strength under the interactive heat flux, transformed Eulerian-mean theory is applied, in which the eddy diffusivity plays a central role in determining the eddy response. A scaling theory for the eddy diffusivity, based on the mechanical energy balance, is developed and tested; the average magnitude of the diffusivity is found to be proportional to the square root of the wind stress. The MOC sensitivity to the winds based on this scaling is compared with the true sensitivity diagnosed from the experiments.

Evaluation of a large-eddy model simulation of a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud using microwave radiometer, lidar and Doppler radar data

Using the Met Office large-eddy model (LEM) we simulate a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud that was observed from Chilbolton in southern England by a 94 GHz Doppler radar, a 905 nm lidar, a dual-wavelength microwave radiometer and also by four radiosondes. It is important to test and evaluate such simulations with observations, since there are significant differences between results from different cloud-resolving models for ice clouds. Simulating the Doppler radar and lidar data within the LEM allows us to compare observed and modelled quantities directly, and allows us to explore the relationships between observed and unobserved variables. For general-circulation models, which currently tend to give poor representations of mixed-phase clouds, the case shows the importance of using: (i) separate prognostic ice and liquid water, (ii) a vertical resolution that captures the thin layers of liquid water, and (iii) an accurate representation the subgrid vertical velocities that allow liquid water to form. It is shown that large-scale ascents and descents are significant for this case, and so the horizontally averaged LEM profiles are relaxed towards observed profiles to account for these. The LEM simulation then gives a reasonable. cloud, with an ice-water path approximately two thirds of that observed, with liquid water at the cloud top, as observed. However, the liquid-water cells that form in the updraughts at cloud top in the LEM have liquid-water paths (LWPs) up to half those observed, and there are too few cells, giving a mean LWP five to ten times smaller than observed. In reality, ice nucleation and fallout may deplete ice-nuclei concentrations at the cloud top, allowing more liquid water to form there, but this process is not represented in the model. Decreasing the heterogeneous nucleation rate in the LEM increased the LWP, which supports this hypothesis. The LEM captures the increase in the standard deviation in Doppler velocities (and so vertical winds) with height, but values are 1.5 to 4 times smaller than observed (although values are larger in an unforced model run, this only increases the modelled LWP by a factor of approximately two). The LEM data show that, for values larger than approximately 12 cm s(-1), the standard deviation in Doppler velocities provides an almost unbiased estimate of the standard deviation in vertical winds, but provides an overestimate for smaller values. Time-smoothing the observed Doppler velocities and modelled mass-squared-weighted fallspeeds shows that observed fallspeeds are approximately two-thirds of the modelled values. Decreasing the modelled fallspeeds to those observed increases the modelled IWC, giving an IWP 1.6 times that observed.

Controlling spurious diapycnal mixing in eddy-resolving height-coordinate ocean models: insights from virtual deliberate tracer release experiments

A perceived limitation of z-coordinate models associated with spurious diapycnal mixing in eddying, frontal flow, can be readily addressed through appropriate attention to the tracer advection schemes employed. It is demonstrated that tracer advection schemes developed by Prather and collaborators for application in the stratosphere, greatly improve the fidelity of eddying flows, reducing levels of spurious diapycnal mixing to below those directly measured in field experiments, ∼1 × 10−5 m2 s−1. This approach yields a model in which geostrophic eddies are quasi-adiabatic in the ocean interior, so that the residual-mean overturning circulation aligns almost perfectly with density contours. A reentrant channel configuration of the MIT General Circulation Model, that approximates the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is used to examine these issues. Virtual analogs of ocean deliberate tracer release field experiments reinforce our conclusion, producing passive tracer solutions that parallel field experiments remarkably well.

Coupled simulations of the Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation using a fine-resolution mixed-layer ocean model

The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Indian summer monsoon is dominated by a 30–50 day oscillation between “active” and “break” events of enhanced and reduced rainfall over the subcontinent, respectively. These organized convective events form in the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate north to India. Atmosphere–ocean coupled processes are thought to play a key role the intensity and propagation of these events. A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer-oceanmodel is assembled: HadKPP. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) and the K Profile Parameterization (KPP) mixed-layer ocean model. Following studies that upper-ocean vertical resolution and sub-diurnal coupling frequencies improve the simulation of ISV in SSTs, KPP is run at 1 m vertical resolution near the surface; the atmosphere and ocean are coupled every three hours. HadKPP accurately simulates the 30–50 day ISV in rainfall and SSTs over India and the Bay of Bengal, respectively, but suffers from low ISV on the equator. This is due to the HadAM3 convection scheme producing limited ISV in surface fluxes. HadKPP demonstrates little of the observed northward propagation of intraseasonal events, producing instead a standing oscillation. The lack of equatorial ISV in convection in HadAM3 constrains the ability of KPP to produce equatorial SST anomalies, which further weakens the ISV of convection. It is concluded that while atmosphere–ocean interactions are undoubtedly essential to an accurate simulation of ISV, they are not a panacea for model deficiencies. In regions where the atmospheric forcing is adequate, such as the Bay of Bengal, KPP produces SST anomalies that are comparable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) SST analyses in both their magnitude and their timing with respect to rainfall anomalies over India. HadKPP also displays a much-improved phase relationship between rainfall and SSTs over a HadAM3 ensemble forced by observed SSTs, when both are compared to observations. Coupling to mixed-layer models such as KPP has the potential to improve operational predictions of ISV, particularly when the persistence time of SST anomalies is shorter than the forecast lead time.

Quantifying mesoscale variability in ocean transient tracer fields

A powerful way to test the realism of ocean general circulation models is to systematically compare observations of passive tracer concentration with model predictions. The general circulation models used in this way cannot resolve a full range of vigorous mesoscale activity (on length scales between 10–100 km). In the real ocean, however, this activity causes important variability in tracer fields. Thus, in order to rationally compare tracer observations with model predictions these unresolved fluctuations (the model variability error) must be estimated. We have analyzed this variability using an eddy‐resolving reduced‐gravity model in a simple midlatitude double‐gyre configuration. We find that the wave number spectrum of tracer variance is only weakly sensitive to the distribution of (large scale slowly varying) tracer sources and sinks. This suggests that a universal passive tracer spectrum may exist in the ocean. We estimate the spectral shape using high‐resolution measurements of potential temperature on an isopycnal in the upper northeast Atlantic Ocean, finding a slope near k −1.7 between 10 and 500 km. The typical magnitude of the variance is estimated by comparing tracer simulations using different resolutions. For CFC‐ and tritium‐type transient tracers the peak magnitude of the model variability saturation error may reach 0.20 for scales shorter than 100 km. This is of the same order as the time mean saturation itself and well over an order of magnitude greater than the instrumental uncertainty.

Estimation of systematic error in an equatorial ocean model using data assimilation

Assimilation of temperature observations into an ocean model near the equator often results in a dynamically unbalanced state with unrealistic overturning circulations. The way in which these circulations arise from systematic errors in the model or its forcing is discussed. A scheme is proposed, based on the theory of state augmentation, which uses the departures of the model state from the observations to update slowly evolving bias fields. Results are summarized from an experiment applying this bias correction scheme to an ocean general circulation model. They show that the method produces more balanced analyses and a better fit to the temperature observations.

Assimilation of RAPID array observations into an ocean model

Experiments assimilating the RAPID dataset of deep temperature and salinity profiles at 26.5°N on the western and eastern Atlantic boundaries into a 1° global NEMO ocean model have been performed. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is then assessed against the transports calculated directly from observations. The best initialization found for this short period was obtained by assimilating the EN3 upper-ocean hydrography database prior to 2004, after which different methods of assimilating 5-day average RAPID profiles at the western boundary were tested. The model MOC is strengthened by ∼ 2 Sv giving closer agreement with the RAPID array transports, when the western boundary profiles are assimilated only below 900 m (the approximate depth of the Florida Straits, which are not well resolved) and when the T,S observations are spread meridionally from 10 to 35°N along the deep western boundary. The use of boundary-focused covariances has the largest impact on the assimilation results, otherwise using more conventional Gaussian covariances has a very local impact on the MOC at 26°N with strong adverse impacts on the MOC stream function at higher and lower latitudes. Even using boundary-focused covariances only enables the MOC to be strengthened for ∼ 2 years, after which the increased transport of warm waters leads to a negative feedback on water formation in the subpolar gyre which then reduces the MOC. This negative feedback can be mitigated if EN3 hydrography data continue to be assimilated along with the RAPID array boundary data. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown in the right of Canada.

Improving a convection-permitting model simulation of a cold air outbreak

A convection-permitting local-area model was used to simulate a cold air outbreak crossing from the Norwegian Sea into the Atlantic Ocean near Scotland. A control model run based on an operational configuration of the Met Office UKV high-resolution (1.5 km grid spacing) NWP model was compared to satellite, aircraft and radar data. While the control model captured the large-scale features of the synoptic situation, it was not able to reproduce the shallow (<1.5 km) stratiform layer to the north of the open cellular convection. Liquid water paths were found to be too low in both the stratiform and convective cloud regions. Sensitivity analyses including a modified boundary-layer diagnosis to generate a more well-mixed boundary layer and inhibition of ice formation to lower temperatures improved cloud morphology and comparisons with observational data. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Validation of ocean model syntheses against hydrography using a new web application

Results are presented from a new web application called OceanDIVA - Ocean Data Intercomparison and Visualization Application. This tool reads hydrographic profiles and ocean model output and presents the data on either depth levels or isotherms for viewing in Google Earth, or as probability density functions (PDFs) of regional model-data misfits. As part of the CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel, an intercomparison of water mass properties of various ocean syntheses has been undertaken using OceanDIVA. Analysis of model-data misfits reveals significant differences between the water mass properties of the syntheses, such as the ability to capture mode water properties.