Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Identifying seed uptake pathways: The spread of Agya amoah rice cultivar in southwestern Ghana

A study was carried out to identify the factors that contributed to the natural spread and uptake of a rainfed rice variety named Agya Amoah in the Western Region of Ghana after introduction of a small amount (0.5 kg) of seed in 1987 by a small-scale farmer. Fifteen years after its introduction over 73% of rice farmers had grown the variety in the Western Region. Initial awareness of the variety was created by information provided mainly by friends, seeing the variety grown in fields and from relatives. Seed for initial planting of the variety was purchased from other farmers by 67% of farmers, but in the most recent season 77% of farmers used their own saved seed. Annual incremental income per household from the replacement of the previously most widely grown variety with Agya Amoah was estimated to be US $282. The results show that informal systems can result in relatively fast spread and extensive uptake. Local seed systems need to be understood to design appropriate activities that are likely to lead to rapid spread and equitable distribution of introduced varieties, irrespective of characteristics such as wealth and kin.

Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences

Networks are ubiquitous in natural, technological and social systems. They are of increasing relevance for improved understanding and control of infectious diseases of plants, animals and humans, given the interconnectedness of today's world. Recent modelling work on disease development in complex networks shows: the relative rapidity of pathogen spread in scale-free compared with random networks, unless there is high local clustering; the theoretical absence of an epidemic threshold in scale-free networks of infinite size, which implies that diseases with low infection rates can spread in them, but the emergence of a threshold when realistic features are added to networks (e.g. finite size, household structure or deactivation of links); and the influence on epidemic dynamics of asymmetrical interactions. Models suggest that control of pathogens spreading in scale-free networks should focus on highly connected individuals rather than on mass random immunization. A growing number of empirical applications of network theory in human medicine and animal disease ecology confirm the potential of the approach, and suggest that network thinking could also benefit plant epidemiology and forest pathology, particularly in human-modified pathosystems linked by commercial transport of plant and disease propagules. Potential consequences for the study and management of plant and tree diseases are discussed.

Adjusted jackknife for imputation under unequal probability sampling without replacement

Imputation is commonly used to compensate for item non-response in sample surveys. If we treat the imputed values as if they are true values, and then compute the variance estimates by using standard methods, such as the jackknife, we can seriously underestimate the true variances. We propose a modified jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design in the presence of imputation and non-negligible sampling fraction. Mean, ratio and random-imputation methods will be considered. The practical advantage of the method proposed is its breadth of applicability.

Infection of hybrid primula seeds by Botrytis cinerea and latent disease spread through the plants

Botrytis cinerea occurred commonly on cultivated Primula ×polyantha seed. The fungus was mostly on the outside of the seed but sometimes was present within the seed. The fungus frequently caused disease at maturity in plants grown from the seed, demonstrated by growing plants in a filtered airflow, isolated from other possible sources of infection. Young, commercially produced P. ×polyantha plants frequently had symptomless B. cinerea infections spread throughout the plants for up to 3 months, with symptoms appearing only at flowering. Single genetic individuals of B. cinerea, as determined by DNA fingerprinting, often were dispersed widely throughout an apparently healthy plant. Plants could, however, contain more than one isolate.