Stable isotope evidence for 1500 years of human diet at the city of York, UK

We present here the results of a large-scale diachronic palaeodietary (carbon and nitrogen isotopic measurements of bone collagen) study of humans and animals from a single site, the city of York (U.K.) dating from the Roman period to the early 19th century The human sample comprises 313 burials from the cemeteries of Trentholme Drive and Blossom Street (Roman), Belle Vue House (Anglo-Saxon), Fishergate (High and Later Medieval), and All Saints, Pavement (Later and Post-Medieval). In addition, 145 samples of mammal, fish and bird bone from the sites of Tanner Row and Fishergate were analyzed. The isotope data suggest dietary variation between all archaeological periods, although the most significant change was the introduction of significant quantities of marine foods in the Medieval periods. These are first evident in the diet of a small group of individuals from the High Medieval cemetery at Fishergate, although they were consumed almost universally in the following periods. The human isotope values are also remarkable due to unusually elevated delta N-15 ratios that are not sufficiently explained by the comparably small enrichment in C-13 that accompanies them. We discuss the possible reasons behind this and the archaeological significance of the data set.

Factors governing cellular convection in orographic precipitation

The development of shallow cellular convection in warm orographic clouds is investigated through idealized numerical simulations of moist flow over topography using a cloud-resolving numerical model. Buoyant instability, a necessary element for moist convection, is found to be diagnosed most accurately through analysis of the moist Brunt–Väisälä frequency (N_m) rather than the vertical profile of θ_e. In statically unstable orographic clouds (N_m^2) < 0), additional environmental and terrain-related factors are shown to have major effects on the amount of cellularity that occurs in 2D simulations. One of these factors, the basic-state wind shear, may suppress convection in 2D yet allow for longitudinal convective roll circulations in 3D. The presence of convective structures within an orographic cloud substantially enhanced the maximum rainfall rates, precipitation efficiencies, and precipitation accumulations in all simulations.

Actinobaculum urinale sp. nov., from human urine

A hitherto undescribed Actinomyces-like bacterium was isolated from human urine. Based on its biochemical characteristics, the unidentified bacterium did not correspond to any currently described Actinomyces species or related taxa. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed that the unknown bacterium exhibits a specific phylogenetic association with the genus Actinobaculum, but a sequence divergence of > 5% from the two currently recognized members of this genus, Actinobaculum schaalii and Actinobaculum suis, demonstrates that it represents a distinct species. Based on both phenotypic and 16S rRNA gene sequence considerations, it is proposed that the unknown bacterium from urine should be classified as a novel species, Actinobaculum urinale sp. nov. The type strain of Actinobaculum urinale is CCUG 46093(T) (= CIP 107424(T)).

Global attractivity in a recursive sequence

In this paper, we Study the invariant intervals, the globally attractivity of the two equilibrium points, and the oscillatory behavior of tile solutions of the difference equation x(n =) ax(n-1) - bx(n-2)/c + x(n-2), n = 1,2,......, where a, b. c > 0. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Actinomyces catuli sp. nov., from dogs

An Actinomyces-like bacterium was recovered from two dogs. Based on cellular morphology and biochemical criteria, the unknown bacterium resembled the genus Actinomyces but it did not appear to correspond to any of the currently recognized species of this genus. PAGE analysis of whole-cell proteins confirmed that the strain was phenotypically distinct from all other Actinomyces species and comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed that the bacterium represents an unknown sub-line within the genus. Based on phenotypic and phylogenetic evidence, it is proposed that the bacterium from dogs be classified as a new species of the genus Actinomyces, Actinomyces catuli. The type strain of Actinomyces catuli is CCUG 41709T (= CIP 106507T).

A new floating model level scheme for the assimilation of boundary layer top inversions: the univariate assimilation of temperature.

The assimilation of observations with a forecast is often heavily influenced by the description of the error covariances associated with the forecast. When a temperature inversion is present at the top of the boundary layer (BL), a significant part of the forecast error may be described as a vertical positional error (as opposed to amplitude error normally dealt with in data assimilation). In these cases, failing to account for positional error explicitly is shown t o r esult in an analysis for which the inversion structure is erroneously weakened and degraded. In this article, a new assimilation scheme is proposed to explicitly include the positional error associated with an inversion. This is done through the introduction of an extra control variable to allow position errors in the a priori to be treated simultaneously with the usual amplitude errors. This new scheme, referred to as the ‘floating BL scheme’, is applied to the one-dimensional (vertical) variational assimilation of temperature. The floating BL scheme is tested with a series of idealised experiments a nd with real data from radiosondes. For each idealised experiment, the floating BL scheme gives an analysis which has the inversion structure and position in agreement with the truth, and outperforms the a ssimilation which accounts only for forecast a mplitude error. When the floating BL scheme is used to assimilate a l arge sample of radiosonde data, its ability to give an analysis with an inversion height in better agreement with that observed is confirmed. However, it is found that the use of Gaussian statistics is an inappropriate description o f t he error statistics o f t he extra c ontrol variable. This problem is alleviated by incorporating a non-Gaussian description of the new control variable in the new scheme. Anticipated challenges in implementing the scheme operationally are discussed towards the end of the article.

Time and retribution

Retributivists believe that punishment can be deserved, and that deserved punishment is intrinsically good. They also believe that certain crimes deserve certain quantities of punishment. On the plausible assumption that the overall amount of any given punishment is a function of its severity and duration, we might think that retributivists (qua retributivists) would be indifferent as to whether a punishment were long and light or short and sharp, provided the offender gets the overall amount of punishment he deserves. In this paper I argue against this, showing that retributivists should actually prefer shorter and more severe punishments to longer, gentler options. I show this by focusing on, and developing a series of interpretations of, the retributivist claim that not punishing the guilty is bad, focussing on the relationship between that badness and time. I then show that each interpretation leads to a preference for shorter over longer punishment.

Parameterised diabatic processes in numerical simulations of an extratropical cyclone

The parameterisation of diabatic processes in numerical models is critical for the accuracy of weather forecasts and for climate projections. A novel approach to the evaluation of these processes in models is introduced in this contribution. The approach combines a suite of on-line tracer diagnostics with off-line trajectory calculations. Each tracer tracks accumulative changes in potential temperature associated with a particular parameterised diabatic process in the model. A comparison of tracers therefore allows the identification of the most active diabatic processes and their downstream impacts. The tracers are combined with trajectories computed using model-resolved winds, allowing the various diabatic contributions to be tracked back to their time and location of occurrence. We have used this approach to investigate diabatic processes within a simulated extratropical cyclone. We focus on the warm conveyor belt, in which the dominant diabatic contributions come from large-scale latent heating and parameterised convection. By contrasting two simulations, one with standard convection parameterisation settings and another with reduced parameterised convection, the effects of parameterised convection on the structure of the cyclone have been determined. Under reduced parameterised convection conditions, the large-scale latent heating is forced to release convective instability that would otherwise have been released by the convection parameterisation. Although the spatial distribution of precipitation depends on the details of the split between parameterised convection and large-scale latent heating, the total precipitation amount associated with the cyclone remains largely unchanged. For reduced parameterised convection, a more rapid and stronger latent heating episode takes place as air ascends within the warm conveyor belt.

The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the Southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia

In late February 2010 the extraordinary windstorm Xynthia crossed over Southwestern and Central Europe and caused severe damage, affecting particularly the Spanish and French Atlantic coasts. The storm was embedded in uncommon large-scale atmospheric and boundary conditions prior to and during its development, namely enhanced sea surface temperatures (SST) within the low-level entrainment zone of air masses, an unusual southerly position of the polar jet stream, and a remarkable split jet structure in the upper troposphere. To analyse the processes that led to the rapid intensification of this exceptional storm originating close to the subtropics (30°N), the sensitivity of the cyclone intensification to latent heat release is determined using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced with ERA-Interim data. A control simulation with observed SST shows that moist and warm air masses originating from the subtropical North Atlantic were involved in the cyclogenesis process and led to the formation of a vertical tower with high values of potential vorticity (PV). Sensitivity studies with reduced SST or increased laminar boundary roughness for heat led to reduced surface latent heat fluxes. This induced both a weaker and partly retarded development of the cyclone and a weakening of the PV-tower together with reduced diabatic heating rates, particularly at lower and mid levels. We infer that diabatic processes played a crucial role during the phase of rapid deepening of Xynthia and thus to its intensity over the Southeastern North Atlantic. We suggest that windstorms like Xynthia may occur more frequently under future climate conditions due to the warming SSTs and potentially enhanced latent heat release, thus increasing the windstorm risk for Southwestern Europe.

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.