The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (*2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.

Quantitative response of the longevity of seed of twelve crops to temperature and moisture in hermetic storage

Seeds of 39 seed lots of a total of twelve different crops were stored hermetically in a wide range of air-dry environments (2-25% moisture content at 0-50 degrees C), viability assessed periodically, and the seed viability equation constants estimated. Within a species, estimates of the constants which quantify absolute longevity (K-E) and the relative effects on longevity of moisture content (C-W) and temperature (C-H and C-Q) did not differ (P >0.05 to P >0.25) among lots. Comparison among the 12 crops provided variant estimates of K-E and C-W (P< 0.01), but common values of C-H and C-Q (0.0322 and 0.000454, respectively, P >0.25). Maize (Zea mays) provided the greatest estimate of K-E (9.993, s.e.= 0.456), followed by sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) (9.381, s.e. 0.428), pearl millet (Pennisetum typhoides) (9.336, s.e.= 0.408), sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) (8.988, s.e.= 0.387), African rice (Oryza glaberrima) (8.786, s.e.= 0.484), wheat (Triticum aestivum) (8.498, s.e.= 0.431), foxtail millet (Setaria italica) (8.478, s.e.= 0.396), sugarcane (Saccharum sp.) (8.454, s.e.= 0.545), finger millet (Eleusine coracana) (8.288, s.e.= 0.392), kodo millet (Paspalum scrobiculatum) (8.138, s.e.= 0.418), rice (Oryza sativa) (8.096, s.e.= 0.416) and potato (Solanum tuberosum) (8.037, s.e.= 0.397). Similarly, estimates of C-W were ranked maize (5.993, s.e.= 0.392), pearl millet (5.540, s.e.= 0.348), sorghum (5.379, s.e.=0.365), potato (5.152, s.e.= 0.347), sugar beet (4.969, s.e.= 0.328), sugar cane (4.964, s.e.= 0.518), foxtail millet (4.829, s.e.= 0.339), wheat (4.836, s.e.= 0.366), African rice (4.727, s.e.= 0.416), kodo millet (4.435, s.e.= 0.360), finger millet (4.345, s.e.= 0.336) and rice (4.246, s.e.= 0.355). The application of these constants to long-term seed storage is discussed.

Caf1A usher possesses a Caf1 subunit-like domain that is crucial for Caf1 fibre secretion

The chaperone/usher pathway controls assembly of fibres of adhesive organelles of Gram-negative bacteria. The final steps of fibre assembly and fibre translocation to the cell surface are co-ordinated by the outer membrane proteins, ushers. Ushers consist of several soluble periplasmic domains and a single transmembrane beta-barrel. Here we report isolation and structural/functional characterization of a novel middle domain of the Caf1A usher from Yersinia pestis. The isolated UMD (usher middle domain) is a highly soluble monomeric protein capable of autonomous folding. A 2.8 angstrom (1 angstrom = 0.1 nm) resolution crystal structure of UMD revealed that this domain has an immunoglobulin-like fold similar to that of donor-strand-complemented Caf1 fibre subunit. Moreover, these proteins displayed significant structural similarity. Although UMD is in the middle of the predicted amphipathic beta-barrel of Caf1A, the usher still assembled in the membrane in the absence of this domain. UMD did not bind Caf1M-Caf1 complexes, but its presence was shown to be essential for Caf1 fibre secretion. The study suggests that UMD may play the role of a subunit-substituting protein (dummy subunit), plugging or priming secretion through the channel in the Caf1A usher. Comparison of isolated UMD with the recent strcture of the corresponding domain of PapC usher revealed high similarity of the core structures, suggesting a universal structural adaptation of FGL (F(1)G(1) long) and FGS (F(1)G(1) short) chaperone/usher pathways for the secretion of different types of fibres. The functional role of two topologically different states of this plug domain suggested by structural and biochemical results is discussed.

The molecular basis of HIV capsid assembly - five years of progress

The assembly of HIV is relatively poorly investigated when compared with the process of virus entry. Yet a detailed understanding of the mechanism of assembly is fundamental to our knowledge of the complete life cycle of this virus and also has the potential to inform the development of new antiviral strategies. The repeated multiple interaction of the basic structural unit, Gag, might first appear to be little more than concentration dependent self-assembly but the precise mechanisms emerging for HIV are far from simple. Gag interacts not only with itself but also with host cell lipids and proteins in an ordered and stepwise manner. It binds both the genomic RNA and the virus envelope protein and must do this at an appropriate time and place within the infected cell. The assembled virus particle must successfully release from the cell surface and, whilst being robust enough for transmission between hosts, must nonetheless be primed for rapid disassembly when infection occurs. Our current understanding of these processes and the domains of Gag involved at each stage is the subject of this review. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Simulating regional scale secondary organic aerosol formation during the TORCH 2003 campaign in the southern UK

A photochemical trajectory model has been used to simulate the chemical evolution of air masses arriving at the TORCH field campaign site in the southern UK during late July and August 2003, a period which included a widespread and prolonged photochemical pollution episode. The model incorporates speciated emissions of 124 nonmethane anthropogenic VOC and three representative biogenic VOC, coupled with a comprehensive description of the chemistry of their degradation. A representation of the gas/aerosol absorptive partitioning of ca. 2000 oxygenated organic species generated in the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3.1) has been implemented, allowing simulation of the contribution to organic aerosol (OA) made by semi- and non-volatile products of VOC oxidation; emissions of primary organic aerosol (POA) and elemental carbon (EC) are also represented. Simulations of total OA mass concentrations in nine case study events (optimised by comparison with observed hourly-mean mass loadings derived from aerosol mass spectrometry measurements) imply that the OA can be ascribed to three general sources: (i) POA emissions; (ii) a '' ubiquitous '' background concentration of 0.7 mu g m(-3); and (iii) gas-to-aerosol transfer of lower volatility products of VOC oxidation generated by the regional scale processing of emitted VOC, but with all partitioning coefficients increased by a species-independent factor of 500. The requirement to scale the partitioning coefficients, and the implied background concentration, are both indicative of the occurrence of chemical processes within the aerosol which allow the oxidised organic species to react by association and/or accretion reactions which generate even lower volatility products, leading to a persistent, non-volatile secondary organic aerosol (SOA). The contribution of secondary organic material to the simulated OA results in significant elevations in the simulated ratio of organic carbon (OC) to EC, compared with the ratio of 1.1 assigned to the emitted components. For the selected case study events, [OC]/[EC] is calculated to lie in the range 2.7-9.8, values which are comparable with the high end of the range reported in the literature.

Pore anisotropy and microporosity in nanostructured mesoporous solids

In this study, we carried out an investigation related to the determination of the anisotropy (b) of pores as well as the extent of microporosity (mic%) in various groups of nanostructured mesoporous materials. The mesoporous materials examined were fifteen samples belonging to the following groups of solids: MCM-48s, SBA-15s, SBA-16s, and mesoporous TiO2 anatases. The porosities of those materials were modified either during preparation or afterward by the addition of Cu(II) species and/or 3(5)-(2-pyridinyl) pyrazole (PyPzH) into the pores. The modification of porosity in each group took place to make possible the internal comparison of the b and mic% values within each group. The estimation of both the b and mic% parameters took place from the corresponding nitrogen adsorption-desorption isotherms. The new proposed method is able to detect a percentage of microporosity as low as a few percent, which is impossible by any of the methods used currently, without the use of any reference sample or standard isotherms. A meaningful inverse relationship is apparent between the b and mic% values, indicating that large values of b correspond to small values of mic%.

Mind-reading difficulties in the siblings of people with Asperger's syndrome: evidence for a genetic influence in the abnormal development of a specific cognitive domain

Background: Previous research suggests that the phenotype associated with Asperger's syndrome (AS) includes difficulties in understanding the mental states of others, leading to difficulties in social communication and social relationships. It has also been suggested that the first-degree relatives of those with AS can demonstrate similar difficulties, albeit to a lesser extent. This study examined 'theory of mind' (ToM) abilities in the siblings of children with AS relative to a matched control group. Method: 2 7 children who had a sibling with AS were administered the children's version of the 'Eyes Test'(Baron-Cohen, Wheelwright, Stone, & Rutherford, 1999). The control group consisted of 27 children matched for age, sex, and a measure of verbal comprehension, and who did not have a family history of AS/autism. Results: A significant difference was found between the groups on the Eyes Test, the 'siblings' group showing a poorer performance on this measure of social cognition. The difference was more pronounced among female siblings. Discussion: These results are discussed in terms of the familial distribution of a neuro-cognitive profile associated with AS, which confers varying degrees of social handicap amongst first-degree relatives. The implication of this finding with regard to the autism/AS phenotype is explored, with some discussion of why this neuro-cognitive profile (in combination with corresponding strengths) may have an evolutionary imperative.

Spectral invariant behavior of zenith radiance around cloud edges observed by ARM SWS

The ARM Shortwave Spectrometer (SWS) measures zenith radiance at 418 wavelengths between 350 and 2170 nm. Because of its 1-sec sampling resolution, the SWS provides a unique capability to study the transition zone between cloudy and clear sky areas. A spectral invariant behavior is found between ratios of zenith radiance spectra during the transition from cloudy to cloud-free. This behavior suggests that the spectral signature of the transition zone is a linear mixture between the two extremes (definitely cloudy and definitely clear). The weighting function of the linear mixture is a wavelength-independent characteristic of the transition zone. It is shown that the transition zone spectrum is fully determined by this function and zenith radiance spectra of clear and cloudy regions. An important result of these discoveries is that high temporal resolution radiance measurements in the clear-to-cloud transition zone can be well approximated by lower temporal resolution measurements plus linear interpolation.

Autobiographical memory and amnesia: using conceptual knowledge to ground the self

A case of retrograde amnesia, PJM, elucidated the relationship between self, episodic memory and autobiographical knowledge. Results from a variety of measures including the I Am Memory Task (IAM Task), where memories are cued by self-generated self concepts, demonstrate that PJM has a coherent, continuous sense of self, despite having lost episodic memories for an 18-month period. Her use of conceptual autobiographical knowledge, in episodic tasks and to support aspects of identity, shows how autobiographical knowledge can support the self when episodic memories are inaccessible. These results are discussed with relation to current neuropsychological models of self and memory.

The core-periphery model with three regions and more

We determine the properties of the core-periphery model with three regions and compare our results with those of the standard 2-region model. The conditions for the stability of dispersion and concentration are established. As in the 2-region model, dispersion and concentration can be simultaneously stable. We show that the 3-region (2-region) model favours the concentration (dispersion) of economic activity. Furthermore, we provide some results for the n-region model. We show that the stability of concentration of the 2-region model implies that of any model with an even number of regions.