Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

On integral equation and least squares methods for scattering by diffraction gratings

In this paper we consider the scattering of a plane acoustic or electromagnetic wave by a one-dimensional, periodic rough surface. We restrict the discussion to the case when the boundary is sound soft in the acoustic case, perfectly reflecting with TE polarization in the EM case, so that the total field vanishes on the boundary. We propose a uniquely solvable first kind integral equation formulation of the problem, which amounts to a requirement that the normal derivative of the Green's representation formula for the total field vanish on a horizontal line below the scattering surface. We then discuss the numerical solution by Galerkin's method of this (ill-posed) integral equation. We point out that, with two particular choices of the trial and test spaces, we recover the so-called SC (spectral-coordinate) and SS (spectral-spectral) numerical schemes of DeSanto et al., Waves Random Media, 8, 315-414 1998. We next propose a new Galerkin scheme, a modification of the SS method that we term the SS* method, which is an instance of the well-known dual least squares Galerkin method. We show that the SS* method is always well-defined and is optimally convergent as the size of the approximation space increases. Moreover, we make a connection with the classical least squares method, in which the coefficients in the Rayleigh expansion of the solution are determined by enforcing the boundary condition in a least squares sense, pointing out that the linear system to be solved in the SS* method is identical to that in the least squares method. Using this connection we show that (reflecting the ill-posed nature of the integral equation solved) the condition number of the linear system in the SS* and least squares methods approaches infinity as the approximation space increases in size. We also provide theoretical error bounds on the condition number and on the errors induced in the numerical solution computed as a result of ill-conditioning. Numerical results confirm the convergence of the SS* method and illustrate the ill-conditioning that arises.

The effects of infection by Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae (Myxozoa) and temperature on Fredericella sultana (Bryozoa)

The myxozoan, Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, exploits freshwater bryozoans as definitive hosts, occurring as cryptic stages in bryozoan colonies during covert infections and as spore-forming sacs during overt infections. Spores released from sacs are infective to salmonid fish, causing the devastating Proliferative Kidney Disease (PKD). We undertook laboratory studies using mesocosm systems running at 10, 14 and 20 degrees C to determine how infection by T bryosalmonae and water temperature influence fitness of one of its most important bryozoan hosts, Fredericella sultana, over a period of 4 weeks. The effects of infection were context-dependent and often undetectable. Covert infections appear to pose very low energetic costs. Thus, we found that growth of covertly infected F. sultana colonies was similar to that of uninfected colonies regardless of temperature, as was the propensity to produce dormant resting stages (statoblasts). Production of statoblasts, however, was associated with decreased growth. Overt infections imposed greater effects on correlates of host fitness by: (i) reducing growth rates at the two higher temperatures: (ii) increasing mortality rates at the highest temperature: (iii) inhibiting statoblast production. Our results indicate that parasitism should have a relatively small effect on host fitness in the field as the negative effects of infection were mainly expressed in environmentally extreme conditions (20 degrees C for 4 weeks). The generally low virulence of T. bryosalmonae is similar to that recently demonstrated for another myxozoan endoparasite of freshwater bryozoans. The unique opportunity for extensive vertical transmission in these colonial invertebrate hosts couples the reproductive interests of host and parasite and may well give rise to the low virulence that characterises these systems. Our study implies that climate change can be expected to exacerbate PKD outbreaks and increase the geographic range of PKD as a result of the combined responses of T. bryosalmonae and its bryozoan hosts to higher temperatures. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macroevolutionary patterns in the origin of mutualisms involving ants

Ants are a diverse and abundant insect group that form mutualistic associations with a number of different organisms from fungi to insects and plants. Here, we use a phylogenetic approach to identify ecological factors that explain macroevolutionary trends in the mutualism between ants and honeydew-producing Homoptera. We also consider association between ant-Homoptera, ant-fungi and ant-plant mutualisms. Homoptera-tending ants are more likely to be forest dwelling, polygynous, ecologically dominant and arboreal nesting with large colonies of 10(4)-10(5) individuals. Mutualistic ants (including those that garden fungi and inhabit ant-plants) are found in under half of the formicid subfamilies. At the genus level, however, we find a negative association between ant-Homoptera and ant-fungi mutualisms, whereas there is a positive association between ant-Homoptera and ant-plant mutualisms. We suggest that species can only specialize in multiple mutualisms simultaneously when there is no trade-off in requirements from the different partners and no redundancy of rewards.

The life history legacy of evolutionary body size change in carnivores

We estimate the body sizes of direct ancestors of extant carnivores, and examine selected aspects of life history as a function not only of species' current size, but also of recent changes in size. Carnivore species that have undergone marked recent evolutionary size change show life history characteristics typically associated with species closer to the ancestral body size. Thus, phyletic giants tend to mature earlier and have larger litters of smaller offspring at shorter intervals than do species of the same body size that are not phyletic giants. Phyletic dwarfs, by contrast, have slower life histories than nondwarf species of the same body size. We discuss two possible mechanisms for the legacy of recent size change: lag (in which life history variables cannot evolve as quickly as body size, leading to species having the 'wrong' life history for their body size) and body size optimization (in which life history and hence body size evolve in response to changes in energy availability); at present, we cannot distinguish between these alternatives. Our finding that recent body size changes help explain residual variation around life history allometries shows that a more dynamic view of character change enables comparative studies to make more precise predictions about species traits in the context of their evolutionary background.

Higher oxides of chlorine: absorption cross-sections of Cl2O6 and Cl2O4, the decomposition of Cl2O6, and the reactions of OClO with O and O-3

The absorption cross-sections of Cl2O6 and Cl2O4 have been obtained using a fast flow reactor with a diode array spectrometer (DAS) detection system. The absorption cross-sections at the wavelengths of maximum absorption (lambda(max)) determined in this study are those of Cl2O6: (1.47 +/- 0.15) x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1), at lambda(max) = 276 nm and T = 298 K; and Cl2O4: (9.0 +/- 2.0) x 10(-19) cm(2) molecule(-1), at lambda(max) = 234 nm and T = 298 K. Errors quoted are two standard deviations together with estimates of the systematic error. The shapes of the absorption spectra were obtained over the wavelength range 200-450 nm for Cl2O6 and 200-350 nm for Cl2O4, and were normalized to the absolute cross-sections obtained at lambda(max) for each oxide, and are presented at 1 nm intervals. These data are discussed in relation to previous measurements. The reaction of O with OCIO has been investigated with the objective of observing transient spectroscopic absorptions. A transient absorption was seen, and the possibility is explored of identifying the species with the elusive sym-ClO3 or ClO4, both of which have been characterized in matrices, but not in the gas-phase. The photolysis of OCIO was also re-examined, with emphasis being placed on the products of reaction. UV absorptions attributable to one of the isomers of the ClO dimer, chloryl chloride (ClClO2) were observed; some Cl2O4 was also found at long photolysis times, when much of the ClClO2 had itself been photolysed. We suggest that reports of Cl2O6 formation in previous studies could be a consequence of a mistaken identification. At low temperatures, the photolysis of OCIO leads to the formation of Cl2O3 as a result of the addition of the ClO primary product to OCIO. ClClO2 also appears to be one product of the reaction between O-3 and OCIO, especially when the reaction occurs under explosive conditions. We studied the kinetics of the non-explosive process using a stopped-flow technique, and suggest a value for the room-temperature rate coefficient of (4.6 +/- 0.9) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (limit quoted is 2sigma random errors). The photochemical and thermal decomposition of Cl2O6 is described in this paper. For photolysis at k = 254 nm, the removal of Cl2O6 is not accompanied by the build up of any other strong absorber. The implications of the results are either that the photolysis of Cl2O6 produces Cl-2 directly, or that the initial photofragments are converted rapidly to Cl-2. In the thermal decomposition of Cl2O6, Cl2O4 was shown to be a product of reaction, although not necessarily the major one. The kinetics of decomposition were investigated using the stopped-flow technique. At relatively high [OCIO] present in the system, the decay kinetics obeyed a first-order law, with a limiting first-order rate coefficient of 0.002 s(-1). (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

UV absorption spectra of methyl-substituted hydroxy-cyclohexadienyl radicals in the gas phase

UV absorption spectra of five methyl-substituted hydroxy-cyclohexadienyl radicals, formed by the addition of the hydroxyl radical (OH) to toluene (methyl benzene), o-, m- and p-xylene (1,2-, 1,3- and 1,4-dimethyl benzene, respectively) and mesitylene (1,3,5-trimethylbenzene), have been determined at 298 K, 1 atm pressure (N-2 + O-2), and the corresponding absolute absorption cross-sections measured, using laser flash photolysis and time-resolved UV absorption detection. As observed for other cyclohexadienyl-type radicals, a strong absorption band is present in the 260-340 nm spectral region, with maximum cross-sections in the range (0.9-2.2) x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1). The shape of the band varies significantly from one radical to the next for the series of aromatic precursors investigated. The nature and yields of hydroxylated ring-retaining oxidation products, identified in previous studies of the OH-initiated oxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons, and the results of theoretical density functional theory (DFT) calculations indicate that one or more possible isomers of the various OH-adducts may contribute to the observed spectra. Isomers where the OH-group is ortho- (or both ortho- and ipso-) to a substituent methyl-group are likely to be the most abundant but other isomers may also be formed to a significant extent. Nonetheless, the present study provides absorption spectra of the adduct radicals formed from the gas phase addition of OH to the aromatic hydrocarbons considered, near room temperature and I atm pressure. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An experimental comparison between rival theories of rapid automatized naming performance and its relationship to reading

Two studies investigated the degree to which the relationship between rapid automatized naming (RAN) performance and reading development is driven by shared phonological processes. Study 1 assessed RAN, phonological awareness, and reading performance in 1010 7- to -10 year-olds. Results showed that RAN deficits occurred in the absence of phonological awareness deficits. These were accompanied by modest reading delays. In structural equation modeling, solutions where RAN was subsumed within a phonological processing factor did not provide a good fit to the data, suggesting that processes outside phonology may drive RAN performance and its association with reading. Study 2 investigated Kail’s proposal that speed of processing underlies this relationship. Children with single RAN deficits showed slower speed of processing than did closely matched controls performing normally on RAN. However, regression analysis revealed that RAN made a unique contribution to reading even after accounting for processing speed. Theoretical implications are discussed.

Spatial offset of test field elements from surround elements affects the strength of motion aftereffects

Static movement aftereffects (MAEs) were measured after adaptation to vertical square-wave luminance gratings drifting horizontally within a central window in a surrounding stationary vertical grating. The relationship between the stationary test grating and the surround was manipulated by varying the alignment of the stationary stripes in the window and those in the surround, and the type of outline separating the window and the surround [no outline, black outline (invisible on black stripes), and red outline (visible throughout its length)]. Offsetting the stripes in the window significantly increased both the duration and ratings of the strength of MAEs. Manipulating the outline had no significant effect on either measure of MAE strength. In a second experiment, in which the stationary test fields alone were presented, participants judged how segregated the test field appeared from its surround. In contrast to the MAE measures, outline as well as offset contributed to judged segregation. In a third experiment, in which test-stripe offset wits systematically manipulated, segregation ratings rose with offset. However, MAE strength was greater at medium than at either small or large (180 degrees phase shift) offsets. The effects of these manipulations on the MAE are interpreted in terms of a spatial mechanism which integrates motion signals along collinear contours of the test field and surround, and so causes a reduction of motion contrast at the edges of the test field.

Objects and positions in visual scenes: effects of perirhinal and postrhinal cortex lesions in the rat

The authors assessed rats' encoding of the appearance or egocentric position of objects within visual scenes containing 3 objects (Experiment 1) or I object (Experiment 2A). Experiment 2B assessed encoding of the shape and fill pattern of single objects, and encoding of configurations (object + position, shape + fill). All were assessed by testing rats' ability to discriminate changes from familiar scenes (constant-negative paradigm). Perirhinal cortex lesions impaired encoding of objects and their shape; postrhinal cortex lesions impaired encoding of egocentric position, but the effect may have been partly due to entorhinal involvement. Neither lesioned group was impaired in detecting configural change. In Experiment 1, both lesion groups were impaired in detecting small changes in relative position of the 3 objects, suggesting that more sensitive tests might reveal configural encoding deficits.

Pseudogene rescue: an adaptive mechanism of codon reassignment

Alterations to the genetic code – codon reassignments – have occurred many times in life’s history, despite the fact that genomes are coadapted to their genetic codes and therefore alterations are likely to be maladaptive. A potential mechanism for adaptive codon reassignment, which could trigger either a temporary period of codon ambiguity or a permanent genetic code change, is the reactivation of a pseudogene by a nonsense suppressor mutant transfer RNA. I examine the population genetics of each stage of this process and find that pseudogene rescue is plausible and also readily explains some features of extant variability in genetic codes.

The relative fitness of Drosophila melanogaster (Diptera, Drosophilidae) that have successfully defended themselves against the parasitoid Asobara tabida (Hymenoptera, Braconidae)

Drosophila melanogaster larvae defend themselves against parasitoid attack via the process of encapsulation. However, flies that successfully defend them selves have reduced fitness as adults. Adults which carry an encapsulated parasitoid egg are smaller and females produce significantly fewer eggs than controls. Capsule-bearing males allowed repeated copulations with females do not show a reduction in their number of offspring, but those allowed to copulate only once did. No differences were found in time to first oviposition in females, or in time to first copulation in males. We interpret the results as arising from a trade-off between investing resources in factors promoting fecundity and mating success, and in defence against parasitism. The outcome of this investment decision influences the strength of selection for defence against parasitism.

Use of Megasphaera elsdenii NCIMB41125 as a probiotic for early-lactation dairy cows: effects on rumen pH and fermentation patterns

Multiparous rumen-fistulated Holstein cows were fed, from d 1 to 28 post-calving, an ad libitum TMR containing (g/kg DM) grass silage (196), corn silage (196), wheat (277), soybean meal (100), and other feeds (231) with CP, NDF, starch and water soluble carbohydrate concentrations of 176, 260, 299 and 39 g/kg DM respectively and ME of 12.2 MJ/kg DM. Treatments consisting of a minimum of 1010 cfu Megasphaera elsdenii NCIMB 41125 in 250 ml solution (MEGA) or 250 ml of autoclaved M. elsdenii (CONT) were administered via the rumen cannula on d 3 and 12 of lactation (n=7 per treatment). Mid-rumen pH was measured every 15 minutes and eating and ruminating behavior was recorded for 24 h on d 2, 4, 6, 8, 11, 13, 15, 17, 22 and 28. Rumen fluid for VFA and lactic acid (LA) analysis was collected at 11 timepoints on each of d 2, 4, 6, 13 and 15. Data were analysed as repeated measures using the Glimmix (LA data) or Mixed (all other data) procedures of SAS with previous 305 d milk yield and d 2 measurements as covariates where appropriate. Milk yield was higher (CONT 43.0 vs MEGA 45.4 ±0.75 kg/d, P=0.051) and fat concentration was lower (CONT 45.6 vs MEGA 40.4 ±1.05 g/kg, P=0.005) in cows that received MEGA. Time spent eating (263 ±15 min/d) and ruminating (571 ±13 min/d), DM intake (18.4 ±0.74 kg/d), proportion of each 24 h period with rumen pH below 5.6 (3.69 ±0.94 h) and LA concentrations (2.00 mM) were similar (P>0.327) across treatments. Ruminal total VFA concentration (104 ±3 mM) was similar (P=0.404) across treatments, but a shift from acetate (CONT 551 vs MEGA 524 ±14 mmol/mol VFA, P=0.161) to propionate production (CONT 249 vs MEGA 275 ±11 mmol/mol VFA, P=0.099) meant that the acetate:propionate ratio (CONT 2.33 vs MEGA 1.94 ±0.15) was reduced (P=0.072) in cows that received MEGA. This study provides evidence that supplementation of early lactation dairy cows with MEGA alters rumen fermentation patterns in favour of propionate, with potential benefits for animal health and productivity.