Models to predict the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in Canada

Detailed knowledge of waterfowl abundance and distribution across Canada is lacking, which limits our ability to effectively conserve and manage their populations. We used 15 years of data from an aerial transect survey to model the abundance of 17 species or species groups of ducks within southern and boreal Canada. We included 78 climatic, hydrological, and landscape variables in Boosted Regression Tree models, allowing flexible response curves and multiway interactions among variables. We assessed predictive performance of the models using four metrics and calculated uncertainty as the coefficient of variation of predictions across 20 replicate models. Maps of predicted relative abundance were generated from resulting models, and they largely match spatial patterns evident in the transect data. We observed two main distribution patterns: a concentrated prairie-parkland distribution and a more dispersed pan-Canadian distribution. These patterns were congruent with the relative importance of predictor variables and model evaluation statistics among the two groups of distributions. Most species had a hydrological variable as the most important predictor, although the specific hydrological variable differed somewhat among species. In some cases, important variables had clear ecological interpretations, but in some instances, e.g., topographic roughness, they may simply reflect chance correlations between species distributions and environmental variables identified by the model-building process. Given the performance of our models, we suggest that the resulting prediction maps can be used in future research and to guide conservation activities, particularly within the bounds of the survey area.

Flight initiation distances of nesting Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) in response to human disturbance

Birds frequently interact with people when they occur in coupled human-ecological or anthropogenic environments, which makes the protection of legally protected species a challenge. Flight initiation distances (FIDs) are often used to inform development of appropriate buffer distances required for human exclusion zones used to protect birds nesting in anthropogenic landscapes. Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) are protected by the Endangered Species Act in the United States and often nest in areas used by humans. Studies evaluating Piping Plover FIDs are limited and implementation of exclusion zones has been inconsistent across the species’ range. We measured Piping Plover response and FIDs to naturally occurring stimuli on public beaches at Lake McConaughy, Nebraska, USA. Piping Plover FIDs differed most by stimulus class (vehicle, human, dog, human with dog), Julian day, and hour of day. Piping Plover FIDs were greatest for dog and human with dog compared to humans and vehicles. For all types of stimuli, Piping Plover FIDs decreased over time during the nesting season and increased slightly during each day. In the majority of instances in which Piping Plovers left their nests, return times to the nest were relatively short (less than three minutes). These results suggest Piping Plovers become habituated to the presence of human-related stimuli over the course of a nesting season, but other explanations such as parental investment and risk allocation cannot be excluded. Additional research and improved guidance regarding the implementation of exclusion zones is needed so managers can implement effective protection programs in anthropogenic landscapes.