Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) conservation) and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata) conservation). This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options that specify deferment and timing of harvest for large blocks helped ensure the stable presence of an intact mature forest matrix over time. The management scenario that focused on maintaining compositional targets best supported biodiversity objectives by providing the composition patterns required by the 13 focal species, but this scenario may be improved by adding some broad-scale spatial objectives to better maintain large blocks of interior forest habitat through time.

The Influence of Body Condition on the Stopover Ecology of Least Sandpipers in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley during Fall Migration

Many shorebirds are long-distance migrants and depend on the energy gained at stopover sites to complete migration. Competing hypotheses have described strategies used by migrating birds; the energy-selection hypothesis predicts that shorebirds attempt to maximize energy gained at stopover sites, whereas the time-selection hypothesis predicts that shorebirds attempt to minimize time spent at stopover sites. The energy- and time-selection hypotheses both predict that birds in better condition will depart sites sooner. However, numerous studies of stopover duration have found little support for this prediction, leading to the suggestion that migrating birds operate under energy and time constraints for only a small portion of the migratory season. During fall migration 2002, we tested the prediction that birds in better condition depart stopover sites sooner by examining the relationship between stopover duration and body condition for migrating Least Sandpipers (Calidris minutilla) at three stopover sites in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley. We also tested the assumption made by the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley Migratory Bird Science Team that shorebirds stay in the Mississippi Valley for 10 d. The assumption of 10 d was used to estimate the amount of habitat required by shorebirds in the Mississippi Valley during fall migration; a period longer than 10 d would increase the estimate of the amount habitat required. We used multiple-day constancy models of apparent survival and program MARK to estimate stopover duration for 293 individually color-marked and resighted Least Sandpipers. We found that a four-day constancy interval and a site x quadratic time trend interaction term best modeled apparent survival. We found only weak support for body condition as a factor explaining length of stopover duration, which is consistent with findings from similar work. Stopover duration estimates were 4.1 d (95% CI = 2.8–6.1) for adult Least Sandpipers at Bald Knob National Wildlife Refuge, Arkansas, 6.5 d (95% CI = 4.9–8.7) for adult and 6.1 d (95% CI =4.2–9.1) for juvenile Least Sandpipers at Yazoo National Wildlife Refuge, Mississippi, and 6.9 d (95% CI = 5.5–8.7) for juvenile Least Sandpipers at Morgan Brake National Wildlife Refuge, Mississippi. Based on our estimates of stopover duration and the assumption made by the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley Migratory Bird Science Team, there is sufficient habitat in the lower Mississippi Valley to support shorebirds during fall migration.