Suburban immigrants to wildlands disrupt honest signaling in ultra-violet plumage

Urbanization changes habitat in a multitude of ways, including altering food availability. Access to human-provided food can change the relationship between body condition and honest advertisements of fitness, which may result in changes to behavior, demography, and metapopulation dynamics. We compared plumage color, its relationship with body condition and feather growth, and use as signal of dominance between a suburban and a wildland population of Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens). Although plumage color was not related to body condition at either site, suburban birds had plumage with a greater proportion of total reflectance in the ultra-violet (UV) and peak reflectance at shorter wavelengths. Despite the use of plumage reflectance as a signal of dominance among individuals in the wildlands, we found no evidence of status signaling at the suburban site. However, birds emigrating from the suburban site to the wildland site tended to be more successful at acquiring breeder status but less successful at reproducing than were immigrants from an adjacent wildland site, suggesting that signaled and realized quality differ. These differences in signaling content among populations could have demographic effects at metapopulation scales and may represent an evolutionary trap whereby suburban immigrants are preferred as mates even though their reproductive success relative to effort is lower.

An Estimate of Nest Loss in Canada Due to Industrial Forestry Operations

Annual loss of nests by industrial (nonwoodlot) forest harvesting in Canada was estimated using two avian point-count data sources: (1) the Boreal Avian Monitoring Project (BAM) dataset for provinces operating in this biome and (2) available data summarized for the major (nonboreal) forest regions of British Columbia. Accounting for uncertainty in the proportion of harvest occurring during the breeding season and in avian nesting densities, our estimate ranges from 616 thousand to 2.09 million nests. Estimates of the impact on numbers of individuals recruited into the adult breeding population were made based on the application of survivorship estimates at various stages of the life cycle. Future improvements to this estimate are expected as better and more extensive avian breeding pair density estimates become available and as provincial forestry statistics become more refined, spatially and temporally. The effect of incidental take due to forestry is not uniform and is disproportionately centered in the southern boreal. Those species whose ranges occur primarily in these regions are most at risk for industrial forestry in general and for incidental take in particular. Refinements to the nest loss estimate for industrial forestry in Canada will be achieved primarily through the provision of more accurate estimates of the area of forest harvested annually during the breeding season stratified by forest type and Bird Conservation Region (BCR). A better understanding of survivorship among life-history stages for forest birds would also allow for better modeling of the effect of nest loss on adult recruitment. Finally, models are needed to project legacy effects of forest harvesting on avian populations that take into account forest succession and accompanying cumulative effects of landscape change.

Estimates of Avian Mortality Attributed to Vehicle Collisions in Canada

Although mortality of birds from collisions with vehicles is estimated to be in the millions in the USA, Europe, and the UK, to date, no estimates exist for Canada. To address this, we calculated an estimate of annual avian mortality attributed to vehicular collisions during the breeding and fledging season, in Canadian ecozones, by applying North American literature values for avian mortality to Canadian road networks. Because owls are particularly susceptible to collisions with vehicles, we also estimated the number of roadkilled Barn owls (Tyto alba) in its last remaining range within Canada. (This species is on the IUCN red list and is also listed federally as threatened; Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada 2010, International Union for the Conservation of Nature 2012). Through seven Canadian studies in existence, 80 species and 2,834 specimens have been found dead on roads representing species from 14 orders of birds. On Canadian 1 and 2-lane paved roads outside of major urban centers, the unadjusted number of bird mortalities/yr during an estimated 4-mo (122-d) breeding and fledging season for most birds in Canada was 4,650,137 on roads traversing through deciduous, coniferous, cropland, wetlands and nonagricultural landscapes with less than 10% treed area. On average, this represents 1,167 birds killed/100 km in Canada. Adjusted for scavenging, this estimate was 13,810,906 (3,462 dead birds/100 km). For barn owls, the unadjusted number of birds killed annually on 4-lane roads during the breeding and fledging season, within the species geographic range in southern British Columbia, was estimated as 244 owls and, when adjusted for scavenging and observer bias (3.6 factor), the total was 851 owls.

Models to predict the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in Canada

Detailed knowledge of waterfowl abundance and distribution across Canada is lacking, which limits our ability to effectively conserve and manage their populations. We used 15 years of data from an aerial transect survey to model the abundance of 17 species or species groups of ducks within southern and boreal Canada. We included 78 climatic, hydrological, and landscape variables in Boosted Regression Tree models, allowing flexible response curves and multiway interactions among variables. We assessed predictive performance of the models using four metrics and calculated uncertainty as the coefficient of variation of predictions across 20 replicate models. Maps of predicted relative abundance were generated from resulting models, and they largely match spatial patterns evident in the transect data. We observed two main distribution patterns: a concentrated prairie-parkland distribution and a more dispersed pan-Canadian distribution. These patterns were congruent with the relative importance of predictor variables and model evaluation statistics among the two groups of distributions. Most species had a hydrological variable as the most important predictor, although the specific hydrological variable differed somewhat among species. In some cases, important variables had clear ecological interpretations, but in some instances, e.g., topographic roughness, they may simply reflect chance correlations between species distributions and environmental variables identified by the model-building process. Given the performance of our models, we suggest that the resulting prediction maps can be used in future research and to guide conservation activities, particularly within the bounds of the survey area.

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.