Contrasting Seasonal Survivorship of Two Migratory Songbirds Wintering in Threatened Mangrove Forests

Long-distance migrants wintering in tropical regions face a number of critical conservation threats throughout their lives, but seasonal estimates of key demographic parameters such as winter survival are rare. Using mist-netting-based mark-recapture data collected in coastal Costa Rica over a six-year period, we examined variation in within- and between-winter survivorship of the Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea; 753 young and 376 adults banded), a declining neotropical habitat specialist that depends on threatened mangrove forests during the nonbreeding season. We derived parallel seasonal survivorship estimates for the Northern Waterthrush (Seiurus noveboracensis; 564 young and 93 adults banded), a cohabitant mangrove specialist that has not shown the same population decline in North America, to assess whether contrasting survivorship might contribute to the observed differences in the species’ population trajectories. Although average annual survival probability was relatively similar between the two species for both young and adult birds, monthly estimates indicated that relative to Northern Waterthrush, Prothonotary Warblers exhibited: greater interannual variation in survivorship, especially within winters; greater variation in survivorship among the three study sites; lower average between-winter survivorship, particularly among females, and; a sharp decline in between-winter survivorship from 2003 to 2009 for both age groups and both sexes. Rather than identifying one seasonal vital rate as a causal factor of Prothonotary Warbler population declines, our species comparison suggests that the combination of variable within-winter survival with decreasing between-winter survival demands a multi-seasonal approach to the conservation of this and other tropical-wintering migrants.

Contributions of Weather and Predation to Reduced Breeding Success in a Threatened Northern Loggerhead Shrike Population

Populations on the periphery of a species' range may experience more severe environmental conditions relative to populations closer to the core of the range. As a consequence, peripheral populations may have lower reproductive success or survival, which may affect their persistence. In this study, we examined the influence of environmental conditions on breeding biology and nest survival in a threatened population of Loggerhead Shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus) at the northern limit of the range in southeastern Alberta, Canada, and compared our estimates with those from shrike populations elsewhere in the range. Over the 2-year study in 1992–1993, clutch sizes averaged 6.4 eggs, and most nests were initiated between mid-May and mid-June. Rate of renesting following initial nest failure was 19%, and there were no known cases of double-brooding. Compared with southern populations, rate of renesting was lower and clutch sizes tended to be larger, whereas the length of the nestling and hatchling periods appeared to be similar. Most nest failures were directly associated with nest predators, but weather had a greater direct effect in 1993. Nest survival models indicated higher daily nest survival during warmer temperatures and lower precipitation, which may include direct effects of weather on nestlings as well as indirect effects on predator behavior or food abundance. Daily nest survival varied over the nesting cycle in a curvilinear pattern, with a slight increase through laying, approximately constant survival through incubation, and a decline through the nestling period. Partial brood loss during the nestling stage was high, particularly in 1993, when conditions were cool and wet. Overall, the lower likelihood of renesting, lower nest survival, and higher partial brood loss appeared to depress reproductive output in this population relative to those elsewhere in the range, and may have increased susceptibility to population declines.