Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Age-specific survival of male Golden-cheeked Warblers on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas

Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent survival (Φ) probabilities and their associated variances for male GCWAs. In addition to providing estimates for use in population modeling, we tested hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation in Φ. We assessed whether a linear trend in Φ or a change in the overall mean Φ corresponded to an observed increase in GCWA abundance during 1992-2000 and if Φ varied among study plots. To accomplish these objectives, we analyzed long-term GCWA capture-resight data from 1992 through 2011, collected across seven study plots on the Fort Hood Military Reservation using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure within program MARK. We also estimated Φ process and sampling variances using a variance-components approach. Our results did not provide evidence of site-specific variation in adult Φ on the installation. Because of a lack of data, we could not assess whether juvenile Φ varied spatially. We did not detect a strong temporal association between GCWA abundance and Φ. Mean estimates of Φ for adult and juvenile male GCWAs for all years analyzed were 0.47 with a process variance of 0.0120 and a sampling variance of 0.0113 and 0.28 with a process variance of 0.0076 and a sampling variance of 0.0149, respectively. Although juvenile Φ did not differ greatly from previous estimates, our adult Φ estimate suggests previous GCWA population models were overly optimistic with respect to adult survival. These updated Φ probabilities and their associated variances will be incorporated into new population models to assist with GCWA conservation decision making.

Regional habitat needs of a nationally listed species, Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis), in Alberta, Canada

Understanding factors that affect the distribution and abundance of species is critical to developing effective management plans for conservation. Our goal was to quantify the distribution and abundance of Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis), a threatened old-forest associate in Alberta, Canada. The Canada Warbler has declined across its range, including in Alberta where habitat loss and alteration from urban expansion, forestry, and energy development are changing the forest landscape. We used 110,427 point count survey visits from 32,287 unique survey stations to model local-level (150-m radius circular buffers) and stand-level (564-m radius circular buffers) habitat associations of the Canada Warbler. We found that habitat supporting higher densities of Canada Warblers was locally concentrated yet broadly distributed across Alberta’s boreal forest region. Canada Warblers were most commonly associated with older deciduous forest at the local scale, particularly near small, incised streams, and greater amounts of deciduous forest at the stand scale. Predicted density was lower in other forest types and younger age classes measured at the local scale. There was little evidence that local-scale fragmentation (i.e., edges created by linear features) influenced Canada Warbler abundance. However, current forestry practices in the province likely will reduce the availability of Canada Warbler habitat over time by cutting old deciduous forest stands. Our results suggest that conservation efforts aimed at Canada Warbler focus on retaining large stands of old deciduous forest, specifically stands adjacent to streams, by increasing the width of deciduous retention buffers along streams during harvest and increasing the size and number of old forest residual patches in harvested stands.