Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) conservation) and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata) conservation). This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options that specify deferment and timing of harvest for large blocks helped ensure the stable presence of an intact mature forest matrix over time. The management scenario that focused on maintaining compositional targets best supported biodiversity objectives by providing the composition patterns required by the 13 focal species, but this scenario may be improved by adding some broad-scale spatial objectives to better maintain large blocks of interior forest habitat through time.

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.

Identification of Summer Origins of Songbirds Migrating through Southern Canada in Autumn

Stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) in flight feathers were measured to investigate the summer origins of five species of boreal-breeding warblers captured during fall migration at Canadian Migration Monitoring Network (CMMN) stations spread across southern Canada. Mean δD varied among stations and species within stations, but there was broad overlap in δD values. Although isotope ratios indicate that migrants at each station come from a wide range of latitudes, they are unable to provide much longitudinal discrimination. Band recoveries are sparse, but indicate that in general western Canadian warblers move southeast in fall, eastern birds move southwest, and there is a transition zone in the Great Lakes region. Combining knowledge of migratory direction with isotope results increases discrimination of breeding areas. Isotope results support fall migratory movements by Blackpoll Warbler (Dendroica striata) and Northern Waterthrush (Seiurus novaboracensis) that are more easterly than for other species, and in all study species, birds from more northern regions passed through southern Canada later in the season. Migration monitoring stations capture birds from broad areas of latitude, and migrants passing through each province appear to come from largely different portions of the Canadian breeding range, so a few stations placed in each province should suffice collectively to sample birds from most of the boreal forest. Migration monitoring in southern Canada, therefore, has the potential to monitor status of boreal forest birds in Canada that are unsampled by other monitoring programs.

Understanding Demographic and Behavioral Mechanisms that Guide Responses of Neotropical Migratory Birds to Urbanization: a Simulation Approach

Although studies often report that densities of many forest birds are negatively related to urbanization, the mechanisms guiding this pattern are poorly understood. Our objective was to use a population simulation to examine the relative influence of six demographic and behavioral processes on patterns of avian abundance in urbanizing landscapes. We constructed an individual-based population simulation model representing the annual cycle of a Neotropical migratory songbird. Each simulation was performed under two landscape scenarios. The first scenario had similar proportions of high- and low-quality habitat across the urban to rural gradient. Under the first scenario, avian density was negatively related to urbanization only when rural habitats were perceived to be of higher quality than they actually were. The second landscape scenario had declining proportions of high-quality habitat as urbanization increased. Under the second scenario, each mechanism generated a negative relationship between density and urbanization. The strongest effect on density resulted when birds preferentially selected habitats in landscapes from which they fledged or were constrained from dispersing. The next strongest patterns occurred when birds directly evaluated habitat quality and accurately selected the highest-quality available territories. When birds selected habitats based on the presence of conspecifics, the density–urbanization relationship was only one-third the strength of other habitat selection mechanisms and only occurred under certain levels of population survival. Although differences in adult or nest survival in the face of random habitat selection still elicited reduced densities in urban landscapes, the relationships between urbanization and density were weaker than those produced by the conspecific attraction mechanism. Results from our study identify key predictions and areas for future research, including assessing habitat quality in urban and rural areas in order to determine if habitats in urban areas are underutilized.

Numerical Response of Breeding Birds Following Experimental Selection Harvesting in Northern Hardwood Forests

Silvicultural treatments have been shown to alter the composition of species assemblages in numerous taxa. However, the intensity and persistence of these effects have rarely been documented. We used a before-after, control-impact (BACI) paired design, i.e., five pairs of 25-ha study plots, 1-control and 1-treated plot, to quantify changes in the density of eight forest bird species in response to selection harvesting over six breeding seasons, one year pre- and five years postharvest. Focal species included mature forest associates, i.e., Northern Parula (Setophaga americana) and Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens), forest generalists, i.e., Yellow-bellied Sapsucker (Sphyrapicus varius) and Swainson’s Thrush (Catharus ustulatus), early-seral specialists, i.e., Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) and Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica), species associated with shrubby forest gaps, i.e., Black-throated Blue Warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), and mid-seral species, i.e., American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). As predicted, we found a negative numerical response to the treatment in the Black-throated Green Warbler, no treatment effect in the Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, and a positive treatment effect in early-seral specialists. We only detected a year effect in the Northern Parula and the American Redstart. There was evidence for a positive treatment effect on the Swainson’s Thrush when the regeneration started to reach the pole stage, i.e., fifth year postharvest. These findings suggest that selection harvesting has the potential to maintain diverse avian assemblages while allowing sustainable management of timber supply, but future studies should determine whether mature-forest associates can sustain second- and third-entry selection harvest treatments.

Stand and within-stand factors influencing Golden-winged Warbler use of regenerating stands in the central Appalachian Mountains

The Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is currently being considered for protected status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The creation of breeding habitat in the Appalachian Mountains is considered a conservation priority for this songbird, which is dependent on extensively forested landscapes with adequate availability of young forest. We modeled abundance of Golden-winged Warbler males in regenerating harvested forest stands that were 0-17 years postharvest at both mid-Appalachian and northeast Pennsylvania regional scales using stand and within-stand characteristics of 222 regenerating stands, 2010-2011. Variables that were most influential at the mid-Appalachian scale were different than those in the northeast region. Across the mid-Appalachian ecoregion, the proportion of young forest cover, i.e., shrub/scrub cover, within 1 km of regenerating stands best explained abundance of Golden-winged Warblers. Golden-winged Warbler response was best explained by a concave quadratic relationship in which abundance was highest with 5-15% land in young forest cover. We also found evidence that the amount of herbaceous cover, i.e., the amount of grasses and forbs, within a regenerating stand positively influenced abundance of Golden-winged Warblers. In northeastern Pennsylvania, where young forest cover is found in high proportions, the distance to the nearest regenerating stand best explained variation in abundance of Golden-winged Warblers. Abundance of Golden-winged Warblers was <1 male per survey when another regenerating stand was >1500 m away. When modeling within-stand features in the northeast region, many of the models were closely ranked, indicating that multiple variables likely explained Golden-winged Warbler response to within-stand conditions. Based on our findings, we have proposed several management guidelines for land managers interested in creating breeding habitat for Golden-winged Warblers using commercial timber operations. For example, we recommend when managing for Golden-winged Warblers in the central Appalachian Mountains that managers should strive for 15% young forest in a heavily forested landscape (>70% forest cover) and cluster stands within 1-2 km of other young forest habitats.