Evaluating the Small Population Paradigm for Rare Large-Bodied Woodpeckers, with Implications for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

Six large-bodied, ≥ 120 g, woodpecker species are listed as near-threatened to critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The small population paradigm assumes that these populations are likely to become extinct without an increase in numbers, but the combined influences of initial population size and demographic rates, i.e., annual adult survival and fecundity, may drive population persistence for these species. We applied a stochastic, stage-based single-population model to available demographic rates for Dryocopus and Campephilus woodpeckers. In particular, we determined the change in predicted extinction rate, i.e., proportion of simulated populations that went extinct within 100 yr, to concomitant changes in six input parameters. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the combined importance of initial population size and demographic rates for the persistence of large-bodied woodpeckers. Under a worse-case scenario, the median time to extinction was 7 yr (range: 1–32). Across the combinations of other input values, increasing initial population size by one female induced, on average, 0.4%–3.2% (range: 0%–28%) reduction in extinction rate. Increasing initial population size from 5–30 resulted in extinction rates < 0.05 under limited conditions: (1) all input values were intermediate, or (2) Allee effect present and annual adult survival ≥ 0.8. Based on our model, these species can persist as rare, as few as five females, and thus difficult-to-detect, populations provided they maintain ≥ 1.1 recruited females annually per adult female and an annual adult survival rate ≥ 0.8. Athough a demographic-based population viability analysis (PVA) is useful to predict how extinction rate changes across scenarios for life-history attributes, the next step for modeling these populations should incorporate more easily acquired data on changes in patch occupancy to make predictions about patch colonization and extinction rates.

Spatial Aggregation of Forest Songbird Territories and Possible Implications for Area Sensitivity

Habitat area requirements of forest songbirds vary greatly among species, but the causes of this variation are not well understood. Large area requirements could result from advantages for certain species when settling their territories near those of conspecifics. This phenomenon would result in spatial aggregations much larger than single territories. Species that aggregate their territories could show reduced population viability in highly fragmented forests, since remnant patches may remain unoccupied if they are too small to accommodate several territories. The objectives of this study were twofold: (1) to seek evidence of territory clusters of forest birds at various spatial scales, lags of 250-550 m, before and after controlling for habitat spatial patterns; and (2) to measure the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and apparent landscape sensitivity for these species. In analyses that ignored spatial variation of vegetation within remnant forest patches, nine of the 17 species studied significantly aggregated their territories within patches. After controlling for forest vegetation, the locations of eight out of 17 species remained significantly clustered. The aggregative pattern that we observed may, thus, be indicative of a widespread phenomenon in songbird populations. Furthermore, there was a tendency for species associated with higher forest cover to be more spatially aggregated [ERRATUM].

Risk from cattle trampling to nests of an endangered passerine evaluated using artificial nest experiments and simulations

Grasslands are often grazed by cattle and many grassland birds nest on the ground, potentially exposing nests to trampling. We tested for trampling risk introduced by cattle to nests of endangered Florida Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum floridanus) using experimentally paired grids of artificial nests (i.e., clay targets) similar in size to nests of Florida Grasshopper Sparrows and counted the number of clay targets that were broken in paired grazed and ungrazed enclosures. Clay targets in grazed grids were trampled 3.9% more often than their respective ungrazed grids, and measurements of cattle presence or density were correlated with the number of broken clay targets, suggesting that excluding cattle during breeding is an important management recommendation for the Florida Grasshopper Sparrow. Trampling rates within grazed enclosures were spatially homogeneous with respect to cattle infrastructure such as supplemental feeding troughs and fences, and forests and stocking density were poor predictors of trampling rates when excluding ungrazed grids. We used population viability analysis to compare quasi-extinction rates, intrinsic growth rates, and median abundance in grazed and ungrazed Florida Grasshopper Sparrow aggregations to further understand the biological significance of management aimed at reducing trampling rates during the breeding season. Simulations indicated that trampling from grazing increased quasi-extinction rates by 41% while reducing intrinsic growth rates by 0.048, and reducing median abundance by an average of 214 singing males after 50 years. Management should avoid grazing enclosures occupied by Florida Grasshopper Sparrows during the nesting season to minimize trampling rates. Our methods that combine trampling experiments with population viability analysis provide a framework for testing effects from trampling on other grassland ground-nesting birds, and can directly inform conservation and management of the Florida Grasshopper Sparrow.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.