Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus minimus) distribution and habitat use in a montane forest landscape of western Newfoundland, Canada

Once abundant, the Newfoundland Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus minimus) has declined by as much as 95% since 1975. Underlying cause(s) of this population collapse are not known, although hypotheses include loss of winter habitat and the introduction of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) to Newfoundland. Uncertainties regarding habitat needs are also extensive, and these knowledge gaps are an impediment to conservation. We investigated neighborhood (i.e., within 115 m [4.1 ha]) and landscape scale (i.e., within 1250 m [490.8 ha]) habitat associations of Gray-cheeked Thrush in a 200-km² study area in the Long Range Mountains of western Newfoundland, where elevations range from 300-600 m and landcover was a matrix of old growth fir forest, 6- to 8-year-old clearcuts, coniferous scrub, bogs, and barrens. Thrushes were restricted to elevations above ~375 m, and occurrence was strongly positively related to elevation. Occurrence was also positively related to cover of tall scrub forest at the neighborhood scale, and at the landscape scale showed curvilinear relations with the proportion of both tall scrub and old growth forest that peaked with intermediate amounts of cover. Occurrence of thrushes was also highest when clearcuts made up 60%-70% of neighborhood landcover, but was negatively related to cover of clearcuts in the broader landscape. Finally, occurrence was highest in areas having 50% cover of partially harvested forest (strip cuts or row cuts) at the neighborhood scale, but because this treatment was limited to one small portion of the study area, this finding may be spurious. Taken together, our results suggest selection for mixed habitats and sensitivity to both neighborhood and landscape-scale habitat. More research is needed on responses of thrushes to forestry, including use of older clearcuts, partially harvested stands, and precommercially thinned clearcuts. Finally, restriction of thrushes to higher elevations is consistent with the hypothesis that they have been impacted by squirrels, because squirrels were rare or absent at these elevations.

Models to predict the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in Canada

Detailed knowledge of waterfowl abundance and distribution across Canada is lacking, which limits our ability to effectively conserve and manage their populations. We used 15 years of data from an aerial transect survey to model the abundance of 17 species or species groups of ducks within southern and boreal Canada. We included 78 climatic, hydrological, and landscape variables in Boosted Regression Tree models, allowing flexible response curves and multiway interactions among variables. We assessed predictive performance of the models using four metrics and calculated uncertainty as the coefficient of variation of predictions across 20 replicate models. Maps of predicted relative abundance were generated from resulting models, and they largely match spatial patterns evident in the transect data. We observed two main distribution patterns: a concentrated prairie-parkland distribution and a more dispersed pan-Canadian distribution. These patterns were congruent with the relative importance of predictor variables and model evaluation statistics among the two groups of distributions. Most species had a hydrological variable as the most important predictor, although the specific hydrological variable differed somewhat among species. In some cases, important variables had clear ecological interpretations, but in some instances, e.g., topographic roughness, they may simply reflect chance correlations between species distributions and environmental variables identified by the model-building process. Given the performance of our models, we suggest that the resulting prediction maps can be used in future research and to guide conservation activities, particularly within the bounds of the survey area.

Assessing range-wide habitat suitability for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken

Population declines of many wildlife species have been linked to habitat loss incurred through land-use change. Incorporation of conservation planning into development planning may mitigate these impacts. The threatened Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is experiencing loss of native habitat and high levels of energy development across its multijurisdictional range. Our goal was to explore relationships of the species occurrence with landscape characteristics and anthropogenic effects influencing its distribution through evaluation of habitat suitability associated with one particular habitat usage, lekking. Lekking has been relatively well-surveyed, though not consistently, in all jurisdictions. All five states in which Lesser Prairie-Chickens occur cooperated in development of a Maxent habitat suitability model. We created two models, one with state as a factor and one without state. When state was included it was the most important predictor, followed by percent of land cover consisting of known or suspected used vegetation classes within a 5000 m area around a lek. Without state, land cover was the most important predictor of relative habitat suitability for leks. Among the anthropogenic predictors, landscape condition, a measure of human impact integrated across several factors, was most important, ranking third in importance without state. These results quantify the relative suitability of the landscape within the current occupied range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. These models, combined with other landscape information, form the basis of a habitat assessment tool that can be used to guide siting of development projects and targeting of areas for conservation.

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.

Prioritizing tropical habitats for long-distance migratory songbirds: an assessment of habitat quality at a stopover site in Colombia

Long-distance migratory birds are declining globally and migration has been identified as the primary source of mortality in this group. Despite this, our lack of knowledge of habitat use and quality at stopovers, i.e., sites where the energy for migration is accumulated, remains a barrier to designing appropriate conservation measures, especially in tropical regions. There is therefore an urgent need to assess stopover habitat quality and concurrently identify efficient and cost-effective methods for doing so. Given that fuel deposition rates directly influence stopover duration, departure fuel load, and subsequent speed of migration, they are expected to provide a direct measure of habitat quality and have the advantage of being measurable through body-mass changes. Here, we examined seven potential indicators of quality, including body-mass change, for two ecologically distinct Neotropical migratory landbirds on stopover in shade-coffee plantations and tropical humid premontane forest during spring migration in Colombia: (1) rate of body-mass change; (2) foraging rate; (3) recapture rate; (4) density; (5) flock size; (6) age and sex ratios; and (7) body-mass distribution. We found higher rates of mass change in premontane forest than in shade-coffee in Tennessee Warbler Oreothlypis peregrina, a difference that was mirrored in higher densities and body masses in forest. In Gray-cheeked Thrush Catharus minimus, a lack of recaptures in shade-coffee and higher densities in forest, also suggested that forest provided superior fueling conditions. For a reliable assessment of habitat quality, we therefore recommend using a suite of indicators, taking into account each species’ ecology and methodological considerations. Our results also imply that birds stopping over in lower quality habitats may spend a longer time migrating and require more stopovers, potentially leading to important carryover effects on reproductive fitness. Evaluating habitat quality is therefore imperative prior to defining the conservation value of newly identified stopover regions.

Regional habitat needs of a nationally listed species, Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis), in Alberta, Canada

Understanding factors that affect the distribution and abundance of species is critical to developing effective management plans for conservation. Our goal was to quantify the distribution and abundance of Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis), a threatened old-forest associate in Alberta, Canada. The Canada Warbler has declined across its range, including in Alberta where habitat loss and alteration from urban expansion, forestry, and energy development are changing the forest landscape. We used 110,427 point count survey visits from 32,287 unique survey stations to model local-level (150-m radius circular buffers) and stand-level (564-m radius circular buffers) habitat associations of the Canada Warbler. We found that habitat supporting higher densities of Canada Warblers was locally concentrated yet broadly distributed across Alberta’s boreal forest region. Canada Warblers were most commonly associated with older deciduous forest at the local scale, particularly near small, incised streams, and greater amounts of deciduous forest at the stand scale. Predicted density was lower in other forest types and younger age classes measured at the local scale. There was little evidence that local-scale fragmentation (i.e., edges created by linear features) influenced Canada Warbler abundance. However, current forestry practices in the province likely will reduce the availability of Canada Warbler habitat over time by cutting old deciduous forest stands. Our results suggest that conservation efforts aimed at Canada Warbler focus on retaining large stands of old deciduous forest, specifically stands adjacent to streams, by increasing the width of deciduous retention buffers along streams during harvest and increasing the size and number of old forest residual patches in harvested stands.