Models to predict the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in Canada

Detailed knowledge of waterfowl abundance and distribution across Canada is lacking, which limits our ability to effectively conserve and manage their populations. We used 15 years of data from an aerial transect survey to model the abundance of 17 species or species groups of ducks within southern and boreal Canada. We included 78 climatic, hydrological, and landscape variables in Boosted Regression Tree models, allowing flexible response curves and multiway interactions among variables. We assessed predictive performance of the models using four metrics and calculated uncertainty as the coefficient of variation of predictions across 20 replicate models. Maps of predicted relative abundance were generated from resulting models, and they largely match spatial patterns evident in the transect data. We observed two main distribution patterns: a concentrated prairie-parkland distribution and a more dispersed pan-Canadian distribution. These patterns were congruent with the relative importance of predictor variables and model evaluation statistics among the two groups of distributions. Most species had a hydrological variable as the most important predictor, although the specific hydrological variable differed somewhat among species. In some cases, important variables had clear ecological interpretations, but in some instances, e.g., topographic roughness, they may simply reflect chance correlations between species distributions and environmental variables identified by the model-building process. Given the performance of our models, we suggest that the resulting prediction maps can be used in future research and to guide conservation activities, particularly within the bounds of the survey area.

Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus minimus) distribution and habitat use in a montane forest landscape of western Newfoundland, Canada

Once abundant, the Newfoundland Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus minimus) has declined by as much as 95% since 1975. Underlying cause(s) of this population collapse are not known, although hypotheses include loss of winter habitat and the introduction of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) to Newfoundland. Uncertainties regarding habitat needs are also extensive, and these knowledge gaps are an impediment to conservation. We investigated neighborhood (i.e., within 115 m [4.1 ha]) and landscape scale (i.e., within 1250 m [490.8 ha]) habitat associations of Gray-cheeked Thrush in a 200-km² study area in the Long Range Mountains of western Newfoundland, where elevations range from 300-600 m and landcover was a matrix of old growth fir forest, 6- to 8-year-old clearcuts, coniferous scrub, bogs, and barrens. Thrushes were restricted to elevations above ~375 m, and occurrence was strongly positively related to elevation. Occurrence was also positively related to cover of tall scrub forest at the neighborhood scale, and at the landscape scale showed curvilinear relations with the proportion of both tall scrub and old growth forest that peaked with intermediate amounts of cover. Occurrence of thrushes was also highest when clearcuts made up 60%-70% of neighborhood landcover, but was negatively related to cover of clearcuts in the broader landscape. Finally, occurrence was highest in areas having 50% cover of partially harvested forest (strip cuts or row cuts) at the neighborhood scale, but because this treatment was limited to one small portion of the study area, this finding may be spurious. Taken together, our results suggest selection for mixed habitats and sensitivity to both neighborhood and landscape-scale habitat. More research is needed on responses of thrushes to forestry, including use of older clearcuts, partially harvested stands, and precommercially thinned clearcuts. Finally, restriction of thrushes to higher elevations is consistent with the hypothesis that they have been impacted by squirrels, because squirrels were rare or absent at these elevations.