Modelling and Mining To Manage

In this talk, I will describe various computational modelling and data mining solutions that form the basis of how the office of Deputy Head of Department (Resources) works to serve you. These include lessons I learn about, and from, optimisation issues in resource allocation, uncertainty analysis on league tables, modelling the process of winning external grants, and lessons we learn from student satisfaction surveys, some of which I have attempted to inject into our planning processes.

TU Graz: Course: 707.000 Web Science and Web Technology: Lecture 1

In this class, we will discuss the course organization and provide a basic motivation for and introduction to the course. Readings: Web science: a provocative invitation to computer science, B. Shneiderman, Communications of the ACM 50 25--27 (2007) [Web link] Readings: Chapter 1 & 2, A Framework for Web Science, T. Berners-Lee and W. Hall and J. A. Hendler and K. O'Hara and N. Shadbolt and D. J. Weitzner Foundations and Trends® in Web Science 1 (2006) [Web link] Originally from: http://kmi.tugraz.at/staff/markus/courses/SS2008/707.000_web-science/

Predicting sense of community and participation by applying machine learning to open government data

Community capacity is used to monitor socio-economic development. It is composed of a number of dimensions, which can be measured to understand the possible issues in the implementation of a policy or the outcome of a project targeting a community. Measuring community capacity dimensions is usually expensive and time consuming, requiring locally organised surveys. Therefore, we investigate a technique to estimate them by applying the Random Forests algorithm on secondary open government data. This research focuses on the prediction of measures for two dimensions: sense of community and participation. The most important variables for this prediction were determined. The variables included in the datasets used to train the predictive models complied with two criteria: nationwide availability; sufficiently fine-grained geographic breakdown, i.e. neighbourhood level. The models explained 77% of the sense of community measures and 63% of participation. Due to the low geographic detail of the outcome measures available, further research is required to apply the predictive models to a neighbourhood level. The variables that were found to be more determinant for prediction were only partially in agreement with the factors that, according to the social science literature consulted, are the most influential for sense of community and participation. This finding should be further investigated from a social science perspective, in order to be understood in depth.