Predicting sense of community and participation by applying machine learning to open government data

Community capacity is used to monitor socio-economic development. It is composed of a number of dimensions, which can be measured to understand the possible issues in the implementation of a policy or the outcome of a project targeting a community. Measuring community capacity dimensions is usually expensive and time consuming, requiring locally organised surveys. Therefore, we investigate a technique to estimate them by applying the Random Forests algorithm on secondary open government data. This research focuses on the prediction of measures for two dimensions: sense of community and participation. The most important variables for this prediction were determined. The variables included in the datasets used to train the predictive models complied with two criteria: nationwide availability; sufficiently fine-grained geographic breakdown, i.e. neighbourhood level. The models explained 77% of the sense of community measures and 63% of participation. Due to the low geographic detail of the outcome measures available, further research is required to apply the predictive models to a neighbourhood level. The variables that were found to be more determinant for prediction were only partially in agreement with the factors that, according to the social science literature consulted, are the most influential for sense of community and participation. This finding should be further investigated from a social science perspective, in order to be understood in depth.

ImageLearn - Decoding Britain's Landscape

Abstract Ordnance Survey, our national mapping organisation, collects vast amounts of high-resolution aerial imagery covering the entirety of the country. Currently, photogrammetrists and surveyors use this to manually capture real-world objects and characteristics for a relatively small number of features. Arguably, the vast archive of imagery that we have obtained portraying the whole of Great Britain is highly underutilised and could be ‘mined’ for much more information. Over the last year the ImageLearn project has investigated the potential of "representation learning" to automatically extract relevant features from aerial imagery. Representation learning is a form of data-mining in which the feature-extractors are learned using machine-learning techniques, rather than being manually defined. At the beginning of the project we conjectured that representations learned could help with processes such as object detection and identification, change detection and social landscape regionalisation of Britain. This seminar will give an overview of the project and highlight some of our research results.