Predicting sense of community and participation by applying machine learning to open government data

Community capacity is used to monitor socio-economic development. It is composed of a number of dimensions, which can be measured to understand the possible issues in the implementation of a policy or the outcome of a project targeting a community. Measuring community capacity dimensions is usually expensive and time consuming, requiring locally organised surveys. Therefore, we investigate a technique to estimate them by applying the Random Forests algorithm on secondary open government data. This research focuses on the prediction of measures for two dimensions: sense of community and participation. The most important variables for this prediction were determined. The variables included in the datasets used to train the predictive models complied with two criteria: nationwide availability; sufficiently fine-grained geographic breakdown, i.e. neighbourhood level. The models explained 77% of the sense of community measures and 63% of participation. Due to the low geographic detail of the outcome measures available, further research is required to apply the predictive models to a neighbourhood level. The variables that were found to be more determinant for prediction were only partially in agreement with the factors that, according to the social science literature consulted, are the most influential for sense of community and participation. This finding should be further investigated from a social science perspective, in order to be understood in depth.

Can you tell if they're learning?

The proliferation of Web-based learning objects makes finding and evaluating online resources problematic. While established Learning Analytics methods use Web interaction to evaluate learner engagement, there is uncertainty regarding the appropriateness of these measures. In this paper we propose a method for evaluating pedagogical activity in Web-based comments using a pedagogical framework, and present a preliminary study that assigns a Pedagogical Value (PV) to comments. This has value as it categorises discussion in terms of pedagogical activity rather than Web interaction. Results show that PV is distinct from typical interactional measures; there are negative or insignificant correlations with established Learning Analytics methods, but strong correlations with relevant linguistic indicators of learning, suggesting that the use of pedagogical frameworks may produce more accurate indicators than interaction analysis, and that linguistic rather than interaction analysis has the potential to automatically identify learning behaviour.