On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: the case of teenage pregnancy

We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

School management and sexual behavior of teenagers

This paper asks whether school based management may help reducing risky sexual behavior of teenagers. For this purpose we use student level data from Bogot´a to identify students from Concession School (CS), who are enrolled in public education system with a more school management autonomy at school level, and to compare them with those students at the traditional public education system. We use propensity score matching methods to have a comparable sample between pupils at CS and traditional schools. Our results show that on average the behavior of students from CS do not have a sexual behavior that differs from those in traditional public schools except for boys in CS who have a lower probability of being sexual active. However, there are important differences when heterogeneity is considered. For example we find that CS where girls per boys ratio is higher have lower teenage pregnancy rates than public schools with also high girls per boys ratios. We also find that teachers’ human capital, teacher-pupil ratio or whether school offers sexual education are also related to statistically significant differences between CS and traditional public schools.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

Disability as a determinant of access to health care services in Colombia

The relationship between disability and poverty has been described in different contexts. Nevertheless, the basic characteristics of this relationship have not yet been fully established. The social exclusion and discrimination against people with disabilities increase the risk of poverty and reduce the access to basic opportunities such as health and education. This study examines the impact of a health limitation and poverty in the access to health care services in Colombia. Data from the Colombian National Health Survey (2007) was used in the analysis. Variables related with health condition and socio economic characteristics were first generated. Then interactions between health limitations and the lower levels of the asset index were created. This variable gave information related to the relationship between disability and poverty. A probabilistic model was estimated to examine the impact of a health condition and the relation between poverty and disability on the access to health care. The results suggest that living with a physical limitation increases by 10% the probability of access to health care services in Colombia. However, people with a disability and in the lowest quartile of the asset index have a 5% less probability of access to health care services. We conclude that people who live with a physical, mental or sensorial limitation have a higher probability of access to health care services. However, poor and disabled people have a lower probability in access, which increases the risk of having a severe disease and become chronically poor.

Índice de pulsatilidad de arteria cerebral media como predictor para desenlaces desfavorables en fetos pequeños para la edad gestacional

Introducción: La aparición de vasodilatación aislada de la arteria cerebral media en fetos pequeños para la edad gestacional sin otros cambios en el doppler puede interpretarse como fisiológica o podría ser la manifestación inicial de una restricción de crecimiento intrauterino de inicio tardío. Se pretende evaluar la asociación de la disminución del índice de pulsatibilidad de la arteria cerebral media, como predictor de desenlaces perinatales adversos, en fetos con bajo peso para edad gestacional. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio de cohorte analítica de temporalidad histórica para determinar si el hallazgo de disminución de la pulsatibilidad en el doppler de arteria cerebral media se asocia con el pronóstico perinatal adverso, en fetos pequeños para edad gestacional mediante un muestreo no probabilístico. Resultados: Se recolectaron un total de 325 flujometría doppler de fetos pequeños para edad gestacional. El riesgo de parto pretérmino fue RR 2.6 IC95% 1.6-4.1, de hospitalización fue RR 1.4 IC95%1.1-1.9 y de muerte fue 2.1 IC95%1.5-3.2 cuando hay índice de pulsatilidad alterada en la arteria cerebral media. La regresión logística mostró que el riesgo de desenlaces desfavorables con alteraciones en la arteria cerebral media fue de RR 4.2 IC95% 2.5-7.1 ajustado por edad materna, edad gestacional y bajo peso al nacer. Discusión Los pacientes expuestos presentan mayor riesgo de desenlaces desfavorables con diferencias significativas, no así en otros estudios publicados. El presente estudio muestra asociaciones significativas que debe ser evaluada con estudios más amplios.

Application of agent-based modeling to the study of gender stereotypes

Gender stereotypes are sets of characteristics that people believe to be typically true of a man or woman. We report an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates how stereotypes disseminate in a group through associative mechanisms. The model consists of agents that carry one of several different versions of a stereotype, which share part of their conceptual content. When an agent acts according to his/her stereotype, and that stereotype is shared by an observer, then the latter’s stereotype strengthens. Contrarily, if the agent does not act according to his/ her stereotype, then the observer’s stereotype weakens. In successive interactions, agents develop preferences, such that there will be a higher probability of interaction with agents that confirm their stereotypes. Depending on the proportion of shared conceptual content in the stereotype’s different versions, three dynamics emerge: all stereotypes in the population strengthen, all weaken, or a bifurcation occurs, i.e., some strengthen and some weaken. Additionally, we discuss the use of agent-based modeling to study social phenomena and the practical consequences that the model’s results might have on stereotype research and their effects on a community

Historical perspective of the Psychology of motivation

The psychology of motivation has a long tradition and history in psychology. In fact, we consider that, to a certain extent, understanding the history of the psychology of motivation is understanding great part of which has been psychology itself, since the main target of psychology was, and is, to try to explain behaviour, and the aim of psychology of motivation is to find out the causes of behaviour. In its long passage to the present time, there have been three perspectives that have monopolized most of the investigation: the biological, the behavioural and the cognitive. They are not excluding. Each one of them has been predominant in certain stages, although the same attention was paid to the other two. Nowadays, the biological and cognitive perspectives are those that receive greater attention from the investigators. The historical direction in the study of the psychology of motivation represents an important solution to know how the events that have given rise to the present consideration about the psychology of motivation were forged. To know the past helps us to understand the present, at the same time it allows us to hypothesise with great probability of success which will be the future in the study object.

Urban epidemiology of labor informality in Bogotá: A neighborhood interactions approach

Usando datos georreferenciados sobre mercado laboral para la ciudad de Bogotá, se desarrolla una estrategia empírica para identificar el efecto de la tasa de informalidad en el vecindario sobre la probabilidad individual de conseguir un trabajo informal. Se encuentra evidencia de la existencia de tales efectos del vecindario. Estos efectos funcionan de forma distinta para informalidad de trabajadores asalariados o independientes.

The impact of a permanent Income shock on the situation of women in the household: the case of a pension reform in Argentina

Transfers to women may affect their bargaining power within the household and consequently their well-being. We analyze the effects of the 2004/2005 pension reform in Argentina, that resulted in an unexpected and substantial increase in permanent income for around 1.8 million women, on outcomes arguably related to women’s bargaining power within the household. We estimate the effects of the reform in the probability of divorce/separation, the distribution of household chores, and the probability of women being the head of the household, using a Difference-in-Differences approach. Our results show that despite the low divorce probability among seniors, transfers to senior women have substantial effects on their situation in the household. More specifically, we find that the reform had statistically significant effects on the probability of divorce/separation increasing it by 1.8 − 2.7 percentage points implying an increase of around 18 − 19% on the divorce/separation rate of 60 − 65 year old women. Moreover, the probability of being the head of the household also increased by 2.8−3.3 percentage points representing an increase of 7−19% in the probability amongst women of 60 − 65 years of age. In the case of married women, the probability of being the head of the household increased by 1.3 − 1.5 percentage points, which represents an increase of 20 − 22%. Results show that the distribution of household chores within the couples was also affected by the reform. More precisely, the probability that the wife is the only person in charge of the housework decreased by 5 percentage points, an 11% decrease. The participation of husbands in housework, however, did not change significantly.

Use of informal mobile telephony in low income households in Colombia

El acceso a la telefonía móvil en Colombia evidencia ciertas particularidades con respecto a otros países. En Colombia surgió una nueva alternativa de comunicación que consistía en la venta de minutos de celular en las calles y en pequeños negocios durante los primeros años de ésta década. En este documento se analizan las principales características de quienes usan esta modalidad de comunicación con base en una encuesta dirigida a usuarios y no usuarios de bajos ingresos. Se usa un modelo probabilístico para explicar las características de las personas que lo usan y se encuentra que las personas que están en la modalidad de contrato prepago y que viven en ciudades pequeñas tienen una mayor probabilidad de usar esta alternativa de comunicación. De otro lado se encuentra que quienes están con el operador dominante tienden a usar este servicio también de una forma más notoria. Estos resultados parecen indicar que los diferenciales de precios entre las llamadas off-net y on-net así como entre prepago y postpago son los que alimentaron el surgimiento de esta actividad

Body mass index as a standard of living measure: a different interpretation for the case of Colombia

We analyze the Body Mass Index (BMI) in a distinct way of its traditional use and it lets us use it as a proxy of standard of living for the case of Colombia. Our approach is focused on studying how far the people are from the normal range and not on the score of each one and this lets us to treat equally extreme cases as severe thinness and obesity. We use a probabilistic model (Ordered Probit) that evaluates the probability of being within the normal range or another level. We found that socioeconomic variables have a significant effect on the dependent variable and that there are no linear effects. Besides, people with difficulties for walking and adults have less probability of having a normal BMI.

Demand of children in Colombia : guessing or planning

El artículo analiza los determinantes de la presencia de hijos no deseados en Colombia. Se utiliza la información de la Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud (ENDS, 2005), específicamente para las mujeres de 40 años o más. Dadas las características especiales de la variable que se analiza, se utilizan modelos de conteo para verificar si determinadas características socioeconómicas como la educación o el estrato económico explican la presencia de hijos no deseados. Se encuentra que la educación de la mujer y el área de residencia son determinantes significativos de los nacimientos no planeados. Además, la relación negativa entre el número de hijos no deseados y la educación de la mujer arroja implicaciones clave en materia de política social.

Determinants of demand for antenatal care in Colombia

Even though antenatal care is universally regarded as important, determinants of demand for antenatal care have not been widely studied. Evidence concerning which and how socioeconomic conditions influence whether a pregnant woman attends or not at least one antenatal consultation or how these factors affect the absences to antenatal consultations is very limited. In order to generate this evidence, a two-stage analysis was performed with data from the Demographic and Health Survey carried out by Profamilia in Colombia during 2005. The first stage was run as a logit model showing the marginal effects on the probability of attending the first visit and an ordinary least squares model was performed for the second stage. It was found that mothers living in the pacific region as well as young mothers seem to have a lower probability of attending the first visit but these factors are not related to the number of absences to antenatal consultation once the first visit has been achieved. The effect of health insurance was surprising because of the differing effects that the health insurers showed. Some familiar and personal conditions such as willingness to have the last children and number of previous children, demonstrated to be important in the determination of demand. The effect of mother’s educational attainment was proved as important whereas the father’s educational achievement was not. This paper provides some elements for policy making in order to increase the demand inducement of antenatal care, as well as stimulating research on demand for specific issues on health.

An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level Analysis for the Colombian Economy

We use a large firm level data set to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment(FDI) in Colombia. We estimate econometric models for the determinants of the probabilitythat a firm receives FDI, as well as for the factors that help to explain the foreign share in afirm’s capital. The results show that firms listed on the stock market, involved in foreign tradeactivities, and operating in sectors with greater capital intensity are more likely to be recipientsof FDI. Also, the probability of a firm receiving FDI is directly related to its size.