De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).

Development and/or change of the notion of permanent object and operative causality: empirical evidence in the first year of life

This study examines the notion of permanent object during the first year of life, taking into account the controversy of two approaches about the nature of change: developmental change and cognitive change. Using a longitudinal/cross-sectional design, tasks adapted of the subscale of permanent object and operative causality of the Uzgiris-Hunt Scale (Uzgiris and Hunt, 1975) (Uzgiris & Hunt, 1975) were presented to 110 infants of 0, 3, 6 and 9 months-old, which reside in three cities of Colombia. The results showed three types of strategies: (a) Not resolution; (b) Exploratory and (c) Resolution, which follow different trajectories in children’s performance. This allows affirming that adaptive conquests of the cognitive development stay together with the variety of strategies. Using strategies reveals adjustments and transformations of action programs that consolidate the notion of permanent object not necessarily with age, but with self-regulatory processes. Empirical evidence contributes to the understanding of the relations between the emergence of novelty in the development and performance variability

The innate concepts in Chomsky’s work: definition and proposal of an empirical method for their study

This article focuses on innate concepts: their definition, according to the linguistic work of Noam Chomsky, and the outline of a method for their study. As an introduction to the subject some academic conceptions of the concept acquisition are pointed out, and it is claimed that there is a lack of an empirical method for the study of innate concepts. Next, the article presents the definition that Chomsky has defended over time about such concepts. Finally, in a theoretical way, it presents the conditions for an empirical procedure for the study of innate concepts, called semantic analysis of corpus

Publicness of goods and violent conflict : evidence from Colombia

How the degree of publicness of goods affect violent conflict? Based on the theoretical model in Esteban and Ray (2001) we find that the effect of the degree of publicness depends on the group size. When the group is small (large), the degree of publicness increases (decreases) the likelihood of conflict. This opens an empirical question that we tackle using microdata from the Colombian conflict at the municipality level. We use three goods with different publicness degree to identify the sign of the effect of publicness on conflict. These goods are coca crops (private good), road density (public good subject to congestion) and average education quality (a purer public good). After dealing with endogeneity issues using an IV approach, we find that the degree of publicness reduces the likelihood of both paramilitary and guerrilla attacks. Moreover, coca production exacerbates conflict and the provision of both public goods mitigates conflict. These results are robust to size, geographical, and welfare controls. Policies that improve public goods provision will help to fight the onset of conflict.

Telecommunications and economic growth: an empirical analysis of sub-saharan Africa

We examine the effect on economic growth of mobile cellular phones in sub-Saharan Africa where a marked asymmetry is present between land-line penetration and mobile telecommunications expansion. This study extends previous ones along two important dimensions. First, we allow for the potential endogeneity between economic growth and telecommunications expansion by employing a special linear generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. Second, we explicitly model for varying degrees of substitutability between mobile cellular and land-line telephony, so that greater expansion of mobile telecommunications can have a different impact whenever the level of land-line penetration differs. We find that mobile cellular phone expansion is an important determinant of the rate of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, we find that the contribution of mobile cellular phones to economic growth has been growing in importance in the region, and that the marginal impact of mobile telecommunication services is even greater wherever land-line phones are rare. Given the low cost of mobile telecommunications technology relative to other broad infrastructure projects, especially land-line infrastructure, we advocate that mobile telecommunication services be encouraged in the area.

An empirical note on factor shares

In this study, we propose an explanation for why labor and capital shares do not seem to have a trend: an increasing trend in physical capital share is compensated by a decreasing trend in land share. Similarly, an increasing trend in human capital share is compensated by a decreasing trend in raw labor share. We also find empirical support for the claim that the elasticity of output with respect to reproducible factors, human and physical capital, is positively correlated with the income level. This result has important implications for economic growth theory and for empirical exercises related to economic growth

Seasonal adjustment and cointegration

El documento examina el efecto de filtros de ajuste en el tamaño y poder de prueba de cointegración que usan los residuales como pruebas ADF y PP, mediante procedimientos MonteCarlo y una aplicación empírica. Nuestros resultados indican que el uso de filtros distorsiona el tamaño y reduce el poder de estas pruebas.

An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level Analysis for the Colombian Economy

We use a large firm level data set to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment(FDI) in Colombia. We estimate econometric models for the determinants of the probabilitythat a firm receives FDI, as well as for the factors that help to explain the foreign share in afirm’s capital. The results show that firms listed on the stock market, involved in foreign tradeactivities, and operating in sectors with greater capital intensity are more likely to be recipientsof FDI. Also, the probability of a firm receiving FDI is directly related to its size.

Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

Mercados laborales en entornos de conflictos armados: un análisis empírico para Colombia

Históricamente se ha reconocido que los conflictos internos afectan de manera directa variables a nivel individual como la salud de las personas, los niveles de escolaridad y el desplazamiento forzoso de los afectados. Sin embargo, solo hasta la última década las investigaciones académicas se han inclinado en documentar y cuantificar rigurosamente los efectos colaterales de la violencia sobre las condiciones de vida de los individuos. La presente investigación estudia cómo la exposición al conflicto en Colombia ha afectado las decisiones en términos de mercado laboral de las personas. La estrategia de identificación internaliza los reconocidos problemas de endogeneidad del conflicto con variables de actividad y desarrollo económico y presenta resultados robustos a fenómenos de migración interna y desplazamiento. En términos de participación laboral y desempleo, se encuentran efectos heterogéneos a nivel de género como respuestas a la violencia experimentada. En particular, la probabilidad de participación laboral de las mujeres se incremente como consecuencia de la exposición al conflicto, mientras que la de desempleo disminuye. Para los hombres, los resultados muestran una menor probabilidad de participación, efecto contrario al de las mujeres, y un efecto análogo en términos de desempleo. La investigación no encuentra efectos diferenciales en términos de informalidad laboral.