A prediction model for establishing the disability degree in adults with spinal cord injury: results based on WHO-DAS II perspective

Objective: To establish a prediction model of the degree of disability in adults with Spinal CordInjury (SCI ) based on the use of the WHO-DAS II . Methods: The disability degree was correlatedwith three variable groups: clinical, sociodemographic and those related with rehabilitation services.A model of multiple linear regression was built to predict disability. 45 people with sci exhibitingdiverse etiology, neurological level and completeness participated. Patients were older than 18 andthey had more than a six-month post-injury. The WHO-DAS II and the ASIA impairment scale(AIS ) were used. Results: Variables that evidenced a significant relationship with disability were thefollowing: occupational situation, type of affiliation to the public health care system, injury evolutiontime, neurological level, partial preservation zone, ais motor and sensory scores and number ofclinical complications during the last year. Complications significantly associated to disability werejoint pain, urinary infections, intestinal problems and autonomic disreflexia. None of the variablesrelated to rehabilitation services showed significant association with disability. The disability degreeexhibited significant differences in favor of the groups that received the following services: assistivedevices supply and vocational, job or educational counseling. Conclusions: The best predictiondisability model in adults with sci with more than six months post-injury was built with variablesof injury evolution time, AIS sensory score and injury-related unemployment.

Option pricing in market models driven by telegraph processes with jumps

Esta tesis está dividida en dos partes: en la primera parte se presentan y estudian los procesos telegráficos, los procesos de Poisson con compensador telegráfico y los procesos telegráficos con saltos. El estudio presentado en esta primera parte incluye el cálculo de las distribuciones de cada proceso, las medias y varianzas, así como las funciones generadoras de momentos entre otras propiedades. Utilizando estas propiedades en la segunda parte se estudian los modelos de valoración de opciones basados en procesos telegráficos con saltos. En esta parte se da una descripción de cómo calcular las medidas neutrales al riesgo, se encuentra la condición de no arbitraje en este tipo de modelos y por último se calcula el precio de las opciones Europeas de compra y venta.

Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a nonlinear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs

Small states and the promotion of their foreign policy agenda in the international scenario: Trinidad and Tobago and the Kyoto Protocol

Este estudio de caso busca identificar los elementos del portafolio de política exterior de Trinidad y Tobago que le permitieron promover exitosamente sus intereses en el Protocolo de Kioto. Al hacer esto, este texto analizará las limitaciones de Trinidad y Tobago en términos de vulnerabilidades de localización, burocracia y recursos. Posteriormente, una revisión del portafolio de política exterior de este Estado ilustrará el uso de estrategias de creación de capacidades y de organización como lo son el contacto con actores institucionales y no gubernamentales, la formación de coaliciones y estrategias argumentativas, entre otras. Finalmente, este artículo concluirá que dichas acciones permitieron la promoción de la agenda de política exterior de Trinidad y Tobago a través de la creación de hojas de ruta y la coordinación de la incertidumbre con el Protocolo de Kioto. Para hacer esto, este trabajo se concentrará en examinar conceptos como vulnerabilidad y priorización, asimismo contrastando diferentes artículos académicos en la materia junto con documentos oficiales de Trinidad y Tobago.