The effect of Ponzi schemes on crime: Evidence from the colombian case

This paper estimates the impact of a massive negative income shock led by the simultaneous crash down of several Ponzi schemes (also known as financial ``pyramids"") in Colombia on crime rates at the municipal level. Using novel data on the spatial incidence of the latest wave of Colombian pyramids and their crash down date, I estimate difference-in-differences models with both monthly and yearly frequency. I find that the negative income shock of the pyramids" crash down differentially exacerbates crime in affected municipalities compared to those with no presence of Ponzi schemes. This is true for minor offenses like commercial theft or residential burglary, but not for major crimes as murder or terrorism.

Biased Technological Change, Impatience and Welfare

En este artículo utilizamos un modelo de generaciones traslapadas con heterogeneidad en la tasa de impaciencia para mostrar que los efectos de un cambio tecnológico aumentador de capital no son simétricos en los agentes y pueden conllevar una reducci on en el consumo. La asimetría en la tasa de impaciencia de los agentes en un período, tiene consecuencias sobre los beneficios del cambio tecnológico para las generaciones futuras. Menores tasas de impaciencia llevan a mayores niveles de capital y de consumo, si se entiende que la economía tiene el suficiente nivel de capital per capita.

The swindle crime: a necessary normative construction of its elements

The present work exposes a review about the performance of the “traditional” thesis(Naturalistic) of the swindle crime in front of the needs of the present’s Political Policy.For this system, the various frauds’ elements require a causal relationship. Today itmight be wondered whether this solution is desirable, i.e. whether respond efficientlyto the problematic assumptions that the contemporary business practices raises.

Neighborhood characteristics and the spatial concentration of crime: Evidence for Bogotá

Using a unique neighborhood crime dataset for Bogotá in 2011, this study uses a spatial econometric approach and examines the role of socioeconomic and agglomeration variables in explaining the variance of crime. It uses two different types of crime, violent crime represented in homicides and property crime represented in residential burglaries. These two types of crime are then measured in non-standard crime statistics that are created as the area incidence for each crime in the neighborhood. The existence of crime hotspots in Bogotá has been shown in most of the literature, and using these non-standard crime statistics at this neighborhood level some hotspots arise again, thus validating the use of a spatial approach for these new crime statistics. The final specification includes socioeconomic, agglomeration, land-use and visual aspect variables that are then included in a SARAR model an estimated by the procedure devised by Kelejian and Prucha (2009). The resulting coefficients and marginal effects show the relevance of these crime hotspots which is similar with most previous studies. However, socioeconomic variables are significant and show the importance of age, and education. Agglomeration variables are significant and thus more densely populated areas are correlated with more crime. Interestingly, both types of crimes do not have the same significant covariates. Education and young male population have a different sign for homicide and residential burglaries. Inequality matters for homicides while higher real estate valuation matters for residential burglaries. Finally, density impacts positively both crimes.

Labor supply, biased technological change and economic growth

Se utiliza un modelo de innovaciones sesgadas para estudiar los efectos de cambios exógenos en la oferta laboral. En un contexto de innovaciones sesgadas, a medida que las economías acumulan capital, el trabajo se hace relativamente más escaso y más caro, por este motivo, hay incentivos para adoptar tecnologías ahorradoras de trabajo. Del mismo modo un cambio en la oferta laboral afecta la abundancia de factores y sus precios relativos. En general, una reducción de la oferta laboral, hace que el trabajo sea más caro y genera incentivos para cambio tecnológico ahorrador de trabajo. Así, el efecto inicial que tiene el cambio en la oferta laboral sobre los precios de los factores es mitigado por el cambio tecnológico. Finalmente, los movimientos en la remuneración a los factores afectan las decisiones de ahorro y, por lo tanto, la dinámica del crecimiento. En este trabajo se exploran las consecuencias de una reducción de la oferta laboral en dos contextos teóricos diferentes: un modelo de agentes homogéneos y horizonte infinito y un modelo de generaciones traslapadas.

Biased technological change, human capital and factor shares

We propose a one-good model where technological change is factor saving and costly. We consider a production function with two reproducible factors: physical capital and human capital, and one not reproducible factor. The main predictions of the model are the following: (a) The elasticity of output with respect to the reproducible factors depends on the factor abundance of the economies. (b) The income share of reproducible factors increases with the stage of development. (c) Depending on the initial conditions, in some economies the production function converges to AK, while in other economies long-run growth is zero. (d) The share of human factors (raw labor and human capital) converges to a positive number lower than one. Along the transition it may decrease, increase or remain constant.

The crime kuznets curve

We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the incidence of crime, as well as to controlling for state and year fixed effects. The Curve is also revealed in nonparametric specifications. The Crime Kuznets Curve exists for property crime and for some categories of violent crime.

Economic shocks and crime: evidence from the crash of ponzi schemes

In November 2008, Colombian authorities dismantled a network of Ponzi schemes, making hundreds of thousands of investors lose tens of millions of dollars throughout the country. Using original data on the geographical incidence of the Ponzi schemes, this paper estimates the impact of their break down on crime. We find that the crash of Ponzi schemes differentially exacerbated crime in affected districts. Confirming the intuition of the standard economic model of crime, this effect is only present in places with relatively weak judicial and law enforcement institutions, and with little access to consumption smoothing mechanisms such as microcredit. In addition, we show that, with the exception of economically-motivated felonies such as robbery, violent crime is not affected by the negative shock.