Organic solvents as risk factor for autoimmune diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Genetic and epigenetic factors interacting with the environment over time are the main causes of complex diseases such as autoimmune diseases (ADs). Among the environmental factors are organic solvents (OSs), which are chemical compounds used routinely in commercial industries. Since controversy exists over whether ADs are caused by OSs, a systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to assess the association between OSs and ADs. Methods and Findings: The systematic search was done in the PubMed, SCOPUS, SciELO and LILACS databases up to February 2012. Any type of study that used accepted classification criteria for ADs and had information about exposure to OSs was selected. Out of a total of 103 articles retrieved, 33 were finally included in the meta-analysis. The final odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained by the random effect model. A sensitivity analysis confirmed results were not sensitive to restrictions on the data included. Publication bias was trivial. Exposure to OSs was associated to systemic sclerosis, primary systemic vasculitis and multiple sclerosis individually and also to all the ADs evaluated and taken together as a single trait (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.25-1.92; p-value, 0.001). Conclusion: Exposure to OSs is a risk factor for developing ADs. As a corollary, individuals with non-modifiable risk factors (i.e., familial autoimmunity or carrying genetic factors) should avoid any exposure to OSs in order to avoid increasing their risk of ADs.

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes the measure of systemic importance ∆CoV aR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009, 2010) within the context of a similar class of risk measures used in the risk management literature. In addition, we develop a series of testing procedures, based on ∆CoV aR, to identify and rank the systemically important institutions. We stress the importance of statistical testing in interpreting the measure of systemic importance. An empirical application illustrates the testing procedures, using equity data for three European banks.

Análisis de sensibilidad para un modelo de medición de percepción de marca basado en simulación computacional por agentes

Se presenta el análisis de sensibilidad de un modelo de percepción de marca y ajuste de la inversión en marketing desarrollado en el Laboratorio de Simulación de la Universidad del Rosario. Este trabajo de grado consta de una introducción al tema de análisis de sensibilidad y su complementario el análisis de incertidumbre. Se pasa a mostrar ambos análisis usando un ejemplo simple de aplicación del modelo mediante la aplicación exhaustiva y rigurosa de los pasos descritos en la primera parte. Luego se hace una discusión de la problemática de medición de magnitudes que prueba ser el factor más complejo de la aplicación del modelo en el contexto práctico y finalmente se dan conclusiones sobre los resultados de los análisis.