PPP, UIP and Fisher parity: speculation or rational expectations? Evidence for four Latin American countries

This work aims to test the equilibrium relations of two international macroeconomics models for Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Brazil. The first model is the rational expectation hypothesis (REH) where three key relations will be tested: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and the Fisher Parity condition. The second model follows the line of though of Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) where two equilibrium relations will be tested. According to IKE, even under the assumption that agents are rational, the presence of speculative behavior in financial markets helps explain the long swings often observed in the behavior of exchange rates. The results support the view that the predictions of the IKE model hold for Colombia, while those of the REH hold for both Brazil and Mexico. Mixed findings are obtained for Chile.

Interaction between Public Transportation and Urbanization in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area: an Expansive Model Reaching its Limits

In Metropolitan Area of Mexico City, most of urban displacements happen through semi formal public transportation: small and medium capacity vehicles operated by small private enterprises, through a concession scheme. This kind of public transportation has been playing a major role in the Mexican capital. On one hand, it has been one of the conditions for urbanization to be possible. On the other hand, despite its uncountable deficiencies, public transportation has allowed for a long time the whole population to be able to move within this huge metropolis. However, that important function with regards to integration has now reached its limits in the most recent suburbs of the city, where a new mode of urbanization is taking place, based on massive production of very big social housing gated settlements. Public transportation tends to constitute here a factor of exclusion and households meet with important difficulties for their daily mobility. 

Racial and spatial interaction for neighborhood dynamics in Chicago

We look at at the empirical validity of Schelling’s models for racial residential segregation applied to the case of Chicago. Most of the empirical literature has focused exclusively the single neighborhood model, also known as the tipping point model and neglected a multineighborhood approach or a unified approach. The multi-neighborhood approach introduced spatial interaction across the neighborhoods, in particular we look at spatial interaction across neighborhoods sharing a border. An initial exploration of the data indicates that spatial contiguity might be relevant to properly analyse the so call tipping phenomena of predominately non-Hispanic white neighborhoods to predominantly minority neighborhoods within a decade. We introduce an econometric model that combines an approach to estimate tipping point using threshold effects and a spatial autoregressive model. The estimation results from the model disputes the existence of a tipping point, that is a discontinuous change in the rate of growth of the non-Hispanic white population due to a small increase in the minority share of the neighborhood. In addition we find that racial distance between the neighborhood of interest and it surrounding neighborhoods has an important effect on the dynamics of racial segregation in Chicago.