Una aproximación de la variable aleatoria a procesos de toma de decisión que implican condiciones de riesgo e incertidumbre

La variable aleatoria es una función matemática que permite asignar valores numéricos a cada uno de los posibles resultados obtenidos en un evento de naturaleza aleatoria. Si el número de estos resultados se puede contar, se tiene un conjunto discreto; por el contrario, cuando el número de resultados es infinito y no se puede contar, se tiene un conjunto continuo. El objetivo de la variable aleatoria es permitir adelantar estudios probabilísticos y estadísticos a partir del establecimiento de una asignación numérica a través de la cual se identifiquen cada uno de los resultados que pueden ser obtenidos en el desarrollo de un evento determinado. El valor esperado y la varianza son los parámetros por medio de los cuales es posible caracterizar el comportamiento de los datos reunidos en el desarrollo de una situación experimental; el valor esperado permite establecer el valor sobre el cual se centra la distribución de la probabilidad, mientras que la varianza proporciona información acerca de la manera como se distribuyen los datos obtenidos. Adicionalmente, las distribuciones de probabilidad son funciones numéricas asociadas a la variable aleatoria que describen la asignación de probabilidad para cada uno de los elementos del espacio muestral y se caracterizan por ser un conjunto de parámetros que establecen su comportamiento funcional, es decir, cada uno de los parámetros propios de la distribución suministra información del experimento aleatorio al que se asocia. El documento se cierra con una aproximación de la variable aleatoria a procesos de toma de decisión que implican condiciones de riesgo e incertidumbre.

Maternal Mortality in Colombia: Some Thoughs on the Situation and Public Policy During Last Decade

In this article we make a critical analysis about the situation of maternal mortality in Colombia, considering some of the most current rates of this problem and the public policy rules adopted in the last years to decrease its prevalence. We think that the rate of maternal mortality in Colombia is too hight because the State does not guarantee the right health care to Colombian women. In this way, the structure and resources distribution established by the policies on sexual and reproductive health have not reflected the population necessities, specially in the case of young mothers left aside by the social security system.

Evaluation of effectiveness of the project ‘Caring caregivers of persons in disability situation’. Bogotá - second semester of 2007

The present paper presents the results of a transversal descriptive study which intended to estimate the contribution of the project “Caring for those who take care of people with disabilities” in the areas of: strength of personal and group competences, self care, life project, dexterity in the care process of people with disabilities, and communitarian auto management; that was implemented in 20 urban areas with caregivers of the city of Bogota in the year 2007. The study allowed the nresearches to acknowledge the little change perception that caregivers had in terms of self care, however, the caregivers perceived change in the four areas, although this were not statistically significant in comparison with the general population. There were only significant changes in the communitarian auto management area in 30% of the population. As a result, it is proposed that more extensive, continuous, and sustainable processes are implemented and that this process arises from contention spaces which can be created with the caregivers, from which they can be motivated to participate in other ´processes of collective and individual changes. Also there’s a need to rely on facilitators (professionals and change agents) who have stronger competences on the how to be and the how to interact competences, because there’s a need to manage the psychosocial components in this group of people. Also, we must make organizational processes and the social networks stronger, this is: collective actions are required, because disability is a social fact, and so, the individual issues are just a moment in the process of inclusion of the person with disability, his family and caregiver.

The impact of a permanent Income shock on the situation of women in the household: the case of a pension reform in Argentina

Transfers to women may affect their bargaining power within the household and consequently their well-being. We analyze the effects of the 2004/2005 pension reform in Argentina, that resulted in an unexpected and substantial increase in permanent income for around 1.8 million women, on outcomes arguably related to women’s bargaining power within the household. We estimate the effects of the reform in the probability of divorce/separation, the distribution of household chores, and the probability of women being the head of the household, using a Difference-in-Differences approach. Our results show that despite the low divorce probability among seniors, transfers to senior women have substantial effects on their situation in the household. More specifically, we find that the reform had statistically significant effects on the probability of divorce/separation increasing it by 1.8 − 2.7 percentage points implying an increase of around 18 − 19% on the divorce/separation rate of 60 − 65 year old women. Moreover, the probability of being the head of the household also increased by 2.8−3.3 percentage points representing an increase of 7−19% in the probability amongst women of 60 − 65 years of age. In the case of married women, the probability of being the head of the household increased by 1.3 − 1.5 percentage points, which represents an increase of 20 − 22%. Results show that the distribution of household chores within the couples was also affected by the reform. More precisely, the probability that the wife is the only person in charge of the housework decreased by 5 percentage points, an 11% decrease. The participation of husbands in housework, however, did not change significantly.