An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: the case of Colombia

In this paper we find that the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia can be best characterised as following a Logistic curve. Although in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, we find evidence that there is still room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in five years time. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.

Difusión de la telefonía móvil en Colombia

En este documento se analiza el proceso de difusión de la telefonía móvil en Colombia a través de los siguientes modelos de difusión: modelo logístico simple, modelo Gompertz, modelo logístico extendido, modelo logístico de respuesta no simétrica, modelo logístico local, modelo Bertalanffy, modelo Brody y Curva log-logística. Se obtiene que el proceso de difusión en Colombia se ajusta a un modelo Gompertz, el cual señala como nivel de saturación el 105% de penetración del servicio de telefonía móvil e inclusive considera el nivel de penetración del 110.5%.

Short Term Health Shocks and School Attendance: The Case of a Dengue Fever Outbreak in Colombia.

This paper makes use of a short, sharp, unexpected health shock in the form of the 2010 Colombian Dengue outbreak to examine the direct and indirect impact of negative health shocks on behaviour of households in affected areas. Our analysis combines data from several sources in order to obtain a comprehensive picture of the influence of the outbreak, and furthermore to understand the underlying mechanisms driving the effects. Our initial analysis indicates that the outbreak had a substantial negative effect on the health status of adults and adversely affected their ability to function as usual in their daily lives. In our aggregated school data, in areas with high levels of haemorrhagic Dengue we observe a reduction innational exam attendance (last year of secondary school) and on enrolment rates in primary education. Further analysis aims to exploit detailed individual level data to gain a more in depth understanding of the precise channels through which this disease influenced the behaviour and outcomes of the poor in Colombia.

El efecto de la definición regulatoria de banda ancha sobre la difusión y la competencia del mercado de servicios de Internet fijo en Colombia

A partir de la dinámica evolutiva de la economía de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones y el establecimiento de estándares mínimos de velocidad en distintos contextos regulatorios a nivel mundial, en particular en Colombia, en el presente artículo se presentan diversas aproximaciones empíricas para evaluar los efectos reales que conlleva el establecimiento de definiciones de servicios de banda ancha en el mercado de Internet fijo. Con base en los datos disponibles para Colombia sobre los planes de servicios de Internet fijo ofrecidos durante el periodo 2006-2012, se estima para los segmentos residencial y corporativo el proceso de difusión logístico modificado y el modelo de interacción estratégica para identificar los impactos generados sobre la masificación del servicio a nivel municipal y sobre las decisiones estratégicas que adoptan los operadores, respectivamente. Respecto a los resultados, se encuentra, por una parte, que las dos medidas regulatorias establecidas en Colombia en 2008 y 2010 presentan efectos significativos y positivos sobre el desplazamiento y el crecimiento de los procesos de difusión a nivel municipal. Por otra parte, se observa sustituibilidad estratégica en las decisiones de oferta de velocidad de descarga por parte de los operadores corporativos mientras que, a partir del análisis de distanciamiento de la velocidad ofrecida respecto al estándar mínimo de banda ancha, se demuestra que los proveedores de servicios residenciales tienden a agrupar sus decisiones de velocidad alrededor de los niveles establecidos por regulación.

Teleconsultation in sexual and reproductive health for young adults through mobile devices: Experience in Colombia

Background: Sexual risk behaviors associated with poor information on sexuality have contributed to major public health problems in the area of sexual and reproductive health in teenagers and young adults in Colombia. Objective: To measure the perception of changes in sexual and reproductive risk behavior after the use of a teleconsultation service via mobile devices in a sample of young adults. Methods: A before and after observational study was designed, where a mobile application to inquire about sexual and reproductive health was developed. The perception of changes in sexual and reproductive health risk behaviors in a sample of young adults after the use of the application was measured using the validated survey “Family Health International (FHI) – Behavioral Surveillance Survey (BSS) – Survey for Adults between 15 to 40 Years”. Non-probabilistic convenience recruitment was undertaken through the study´s web page. Participants answered the survey online before and after the use of the mobile application for a six month period (intervention). For the inferential analysis, data was divided into three groups (dichotomous data, discrete quantitative data, and ordinal data), to compare the results of the questions between the first and the second survey. For all tests, a confidence interval of 95% was established. For dichotomous data, the Chi-squared test was used. For quantitative data, we used the Student’s t-test, and for ordinal data, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test. Results: A total of 257 subjects were registered in the study and met the selection criteria. The pre-intervention survey was answered by 232 subjects, and 127 completely answered the post-intervention survey, of which 54.3% did not use the application, leaving an effective population of 58 subjects for analysis. 53% (n=31) were female, and 47% (n=27) were male. The mean age was 21 years, ranging between 18 and 40 years. The differences between the answers on the first and the second survey were not statistically significant. The main risk behaviors identified in the population were homosexual relations, non-use of condoms, sexual relations with non-regular and commercial partners, the use of psychoactive substances, and ignorance about the symptoms of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV transmission. Conclusions: Although there were no differences between the pre- and post-intervention results, the study revealed different risk behaviors among the participating subjects. These findings highlight the importance of promoting educational strategies on this matter and the importance of providing patients with easily accessible tools with reliable health information.