Participación del gobierno en el perfil logístico de Colombia

El presente documento tiene como objetivo general analizar la situación de la logística y la competitividad en Colombia a partir de la intervención del gobierno en el periodo del 2008 a 2013 sobre los sectores más importantes del país frente al comercio internacional. Para el desarrollo de este trabajo se establecerán las necesidades específicas de cada sector frente a la participación activa del gobierno. De acuerdo a lo anterior, se presentara un análisis global del perfil logístico del sector agrícola, del sector textil, del sector del papel, del sector de hidrocarburos, el farmacéutico y del sector minero. Además se expondrán las problemáticas de cada sector y las políticas frente a los tratados de libre comercio en los que Colombia participa actualmente. Consecuentemente, se analizara el estado de la infraestructura nacional y como esta afecta al desarrollo logístico de país. La metodología que se desarrolló para este trabajo concibe una documentación teórica con fuentes primarias y secundarias del sector, opiniones públicas, e indicadores tales como el de desempeño logístico generado por el banco mundial y la facilidad para hacer negocios (doing business) y el índice global de competitividad.

The persistent colombian conflict bubnational analysis of the duration of violence

The growing empirical literature on the analysis of civil war has recently included the study of conflict duration at the cross-country level. This paper presents, for the first time, a within-country analysis of the determinants of violence duration. I focus on the experience of the Colombian armed conflict. While the conflict has been active for about five decades, local violence ebbs and flows and areas experiencing continuous conflict coexist with places that have been able to resile and where violence is mostly absent. I examine a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level, including scale variables, geographical conditions, economic and social variables, institutions and state presence, inequality, government intervention, and victimization variables. I characterize a few variables robustly correlated with the persistence of localized conflict, both across specifications and using different econometric models of duration analysis.

Political intervention in economic activity

This paper proposes a political economy explanation of bailouts to declining industries. A model of probabilistic voting is developed, in which two candidates compete for the vote of two groups of the society through tactical redistribution. We allow politicians to have core support groups they understand better, this implies politicians are more or less effective to deliver favors to some groups. This setting is suited to reproduce pork barrels or machine politics and patronage. We use this model to illustrate the case of an economy with both an efficient industry and a declining one, in which workers elect their government. We present the conditions under which the political process ends up with the lagged-behind industry being allowed to survive.