Distribución hiperbólica generalizada: una aplicación en la selección de portafolios y en la cuantificación de medidas de riesgo de mercado

En este trabajo se implementa una metodología para incluir momentos de orden superior en la selección de portafolios, haciendo uso de la Distribución Hiperbólica Generalizada, para posteriormente hacer un análisis comparativo frente al modelo de Markowitz.

Seasons, savings and GDP

The industrial revolution and the subsequent industrialization of the economies occurred Orst in temperate regions. We argue that this and the associated positive correlation between absolute latitude and GDP per capita is due to the fact that countries located far from the equator suffered more profound seasonal auctuations in climate, namely stronger and longer winters. We propose a growth model of biased innovations that accounts for these facts and show that countries located in temperate regions were more likely to create or adopt capital intensive modes of production. The intuition behind this result is that savings are used to smooth consumption; therefore, in places where output auctuations are more profound, savings are bigger. Because the incentives to innovate depend on the relative supply factors, economies where savings are bigger are more likely to create or adopt capital intensive technologies.

Dynamic programming for stochastic target problems, Viscosity solutions and hedging in markets with Portfolio constraints and large investors

The purpose of this expository arti le is to present a self- ontained overview of some results on the hara terization of the optimal value fun tion of a sto hasti target problem as (dis ontinuous) vis osity solution of a ertain dynami programming PDE and its appli ation to the problem of hedging ontingent laims in the presen e of portfolio onstraints and large investors

Auge minero-energético, enfermedad holandesa e informalidad en Colombia: un análisis a partir de un modelo DSGE

El presente trabajo desarrolla un modelo macroeconómico de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico (DSGE), con el fin de analizar los efectos macroeconómicos que se derivan de simular un choque positivo al componente estocástico de la productividad del sector minero-energético. Este hecho genera un aumento generalizado de los salarios en el sector formal y en el recaudo tributario, incrementando el consumo total de los miembros del hogar. Esto genera un incremento del precio de los bienes no transables relativo al precio de los bienes transables, disminuyendo la tasa de cambio real (apreciación) y provocando un desplazamiento de los recursos productivos, desde el sector transable (manufacturero) al no-transable, seguido de un aumento en el PIB y empleo formal de la economía. Esto hace que el sector formal agregado absorba trabajadores desde el sector informal a través del subsector formal no-transable, lo que disminuye el PIB informal. En consecuencia, el consumo neto de los miembros informales disminuye, lo que incentiva a que algunos miembros del hogar no se empleen en el sector informal y prefieran quedarse desempleados. Por lo tanto, el resultado final sobre el mercado laboral es una disminución de los trabajadores informales, de los cuales una parte se encuentra en el sector formal, y la parte restante está en condición de desempleo.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.